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Message
Analysis of LA's Covid Numbers - Deaths and Cases Only by Age
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:19 am
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:19 am
Totals:
Cases - 94,892
Deaths - 3,462
By Age (Percent of totals above):
<18 - 7,501 Cases (7.9%) and 4 Deaths (0.12%)
18-29 - 20,995 Cases (22.13%) and 12 Deaths (0.35%)
*Let's stop here just for a second. People under 30 make up 30% of the cases, but only 0.4% of the deaths! Reminder that this age group was severely impacted by Swine Flu back in 2009 when over 2000 nationally died as a result. Schools and sports never stopped then, right?
30-49 - 29,919 Cases (31.53%) and 188 Deaths (5.43%)
50-59 - 13,971 Cases (14.72%) and 306 Deaths (8.84%)
60-69 - 10,891 (11.48%) Cases and 611 Deaths (17.65%)
70+ - 11,445 Cases (12.06%) and 2,341 Deaths (67.62%)
Here is where there is some actual impact. 60 and older make up 23.5% of cases but 85.27% of deaths. This is the vulnerable group that needs to take extra precautions. I see no reason, outside of special cases, for anyone else to stop going about there lives normally. Further, ANY mitigations or mandates based solely on cases is tackling the problem incorrectly. If cases are surging under the age of 60, which is what's been taking place, then there's no reason to change anything or panic. None. The minimal risk does not justify shutdowns or closures especially of schools and sports.
So if JBE adds additional closures today, know that there's no statistical, scientific basis for it.
Cases - 94,892
Deaths - 3,462
By Age (Percent of totals above):
<18 - 7,501 Cases (7.9%) and 4 Deaths (0.12%)
18-29 - 20,995 Cases (22.13%) and 12 Deaths (0.35%)
*Let's stop here just for a second. People under 30 make up 30% of the cases, but only 0.4% of the deaths! Reminder that this age group was severely impacted by Swine Flu back in 2009 when over 2000 nationally died as a result. Schools and sports never stopped then, right?
30-49 - 29,919 Cases (31.53%) and 188 Deaths (5.43%)
50-59 - 13,971 Cases (14.72%) and 306 Deaths (8.84%)
60-69 - 10,891 (11.48%) Cases and 611 Deaths (17.65%)
70+ - 11,445 Cases (12.06%) and 2,341 Deaths (67.62%)
Here is where there is some actual impact. 60 and older make up 23.5% of cases but 85.27% of deaths. This is the vulnerable group that needs to take extra precautions. I see no reason, outside of special cases, for anyone else to stop going about there lives normally. Further, ANY mitigations or mandates based solely on cases is tackling the problem incorrectly. If cases are surging under the age of 60, which is what's been taking place, then there's no reason to change anything or panic. None. The minimal risk does not justify shutdowns or closures especially of schools and sports.
So if JBE adds additional closures today, know that there's no statistical, scientific basis for it.
29
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:21 am to ell_13
Be scared man, be scared
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:22 am to ell_13
Facts don't matter to JBE.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:22 am to tduecen
Stop that!! We are not allowed to think for ourselves anymore. We have to what our dictator says!
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:22 am to ell_13
Why do you want children to DIE!?!?
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:23 am to ell_13
WHY DO YOU HATE MY MEEMAW?
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:24 am to ell_13
Very good analysis. Have an upvote. 
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:25 am to ell_13
quote:
So if JBE adds additional closures today, know that there's no statistical, scientific basis for it.
There have been very, very few decisions made by anyone in a position of authority anywhere these last few months that have any statistical or scientific basis.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:26 am to Open Your Eyes
quote:I agree. But I know he's got another press conference today so I made this thread in that context.
There have been very, very few decisions made by anyone in a position of authority anywhere these last few months that have any statistical or scientific basis.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:27 am to ell_13
I don't know how to link it, but go to Alex Berenson's twitter feed this morning. There is a post with charts from Sweden showing how this played out there with no lockdown. Very telling and similar to what you have posted here.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:28 am to ell_13
quote:
Reminder that this age group was severely impacted by Swine Flu back in 2009 when over 2000 nationally died as a result.
quote:
Deaths - 3,462
You're comparing national to state deaths and you think that the state having more deaths helps your point?
Otherwise, carry on.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:29 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
There is a post with charts from Sweden showing how this played out there with no lockdown
I'm sorry, but it's never a good comparison to drop Sweden into these discussions and say "no lockdown".
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:32 am to magildachunks
quote:You can't read. Nationally, over 2000 people under the age of 30 died from Swine. In Louisiana, the covid number is 16. Nationally, it's less than 300. Swine was 7 times more deadly for that age group.
You're comparing national to state deaths and you think that the state having more deaths helps your point?
This post was edited on 7/21/20 at 10:42 am
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:33 am to ell_13
We shut the state down and tanked the economy for less than 500 total deaths under the age of 60
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:34 am to ell_13
quote:
So if JBE adds additional closures today, know that there's no statistical, scientific basis for it.
He will and there hasn't been any since March, but us common folks get dismissed at Right Wingers if you question his rational and no legitimate media members will do their fricking jobs so here we are.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:35 am to magildachunks
quote:
You're comparing national to state deaths and you think that the state having more deaths helps your point?
Otherwise, carry on.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:37 am to ell_13
I would just point out that one of the four >18 deaths didn’t even have COVID. It was a premature baby who died after being born at 22 weeks when the mother died of COVID.
The crude CFR for >18 is .039%
The crude CFR for >18 is .039%
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:38 am to ell_13
These are great statistics and I appreciate you for weeding them out. I'm just curious, though (rhetorical question) how many of the deaths, say, over 60 were actually due to underlying conditions?
Also, I'm sure this is not an original thought and has been asked before, but I have to believe that any strain on our hospitals has to be due mostly to the fear that seems to be generated by the government with all the hysteria. What needs to happen is some calming by the powers that be (I DO NOT WANT TO CALL "THEM" LEADER, for that they are not) so that every time someone get a sniffle their not running to a hospital for fear their next breath is their last...that's strictly on JBE and his team.
Also, I'm sure this is not an original thought and has been asked before, but I have to believe that any strain on our hospitals has to be due mostly to the fear that seems to be generated by the government with all the hysteria. What needs to happen is some calming by the powers that be (I DO NOT WANT TO CALL "THEM" LEADER, for that they are not) so that every time someone get a sniffle their not running to a hospital for fear their next breath is their last...that's strictly on JBE and his team.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:40 am to Antonio Moss
quote:True. And it's a good point to remind everyone that we don't have the true case numbers either. We KNOW that there were many, many cases from January - May that were missed and still some being missed today. The deaths are going to be closer to reality, but even then we know that there are some who died WITH Covid but not because of Covid.
I would just point out that one of the four >18 deaths didn’t even have COVID. It was a premature baby who died after being born at 22 weeks when the mother died of COVID.
Another point is that we aren't looking at excess deaths. Because the deaths are overwhelmingly impacting elderly, many of them would have died from other illnesses even if Covid didn't happen.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:41 am to mlminbtr
quote:
how many of the deaths, say, over 60 were actually due to underlying conditions?
It’s not an either/or question. Certain underlying conditions exponential increase the rate of death with COVID - both play a significant role in the death.
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