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re: 2nd USA oil wave will bankrupt OPEC (SIAP)
Posted on 7/9/15 at 1:49 pm to StringedInstruments
Posted on 7/9/15 at 1:49 pm to StringedInstruments
quote:That was the intent of not cutting production last year and letting the oil price drop. They expected the lower oil price to push shale producers out of business. However, the shale producers have been much better than expected at cutting fixed costs, and are staying afloat. This may be a waiting game. They are still heavily indebted from the past couple of years (before their cost cutting effort) that they have to dig our from under, though.
Serious question -
If oil is that important to countries like Russia and Iran (among others) and the US is making moves to pretty much strip away their economy, would they be likely to attempt to launch an offensive against the US to recoop their business?
1
Posted on 7/9/15 at 1:50 pm to therick711
quote:
Unlikely. In terms of geopolitics, it means the US can bend them to its foreign policy will. This bullshite nuke agreement with Iran, well let's just say the US will get many more concessions. Russia's agitation, not going to be going on because they won't have the cash to saber rattle.
Yeah, but the chinless wonder will continue to ride Shetland ponies bareback so he can fuel the homo-erotic fantasies of his fan bois, so there's that.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 1:51 pm to StringedInstruments
quote:Doubtful. Russia sells its oil ang gas to the EU and China. The EU is mostly NATO so an attack on America is an attack in their buyers. So that would be pretty dumb. Plus we have the ability to hit back.
Serious question - If oil is that important to countries like Russia and Iran (among others) and the US is making moves to pretty much strip away their economy, would they be likely to attempt to launch an offensive against the US to recoop their business?
Posted on 7/9/15 at 1:55 pm to therick711
quote:
US production turned the tables on them and now that the US is catching up on the cost side
I thought it was the other way around where the Saudis especially didn't allow a cut, which is going to hurt our unconventional production.
I don't think this second wave happens because the decline curves of the unconventional fields are steep and these low price points will not bring more crude online. There are countless articles out there about the shale ponzi ready to burst, but the poli board guys will tells you I'm a big peak oil guy and don't know what I'm talking about, which is fair. But, listen to whatever cwill says when he comes in here. The US will never be energy independent.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 1:58 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
The US will never be energy independent.
Care to expound?
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:04 pm to N2cars
This uptick is great. But, I believe it took high prices and a lot of investment in energy which does not flow easily and which production levels cannot be sustained more than a few years.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:04 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
I thought it was the other way around where the Saudis especially didn't allow a cut, which is going to hurt our unconventional production.
I don't think this second wave happens because the decline curves of the unconventional fields are steep and these low price points will not bring more crude online. There are countless articles out there about the shale ponzi ready to burst, but the poli board guys will tells you I'm a big peak oil guy and don't know what I'm talking about, which is fair. But, listen to whatever cwill says when he comes in here. The US will never be energy independent.
That was the conventional thought late 2014 and early 2015, but results are not matching predictions. The Saudi's and the rest of OPEC gambled because they thought the US had to have $60-$75 oil to breakeven and we would stop producing and then the price would jump back up. Well this new report says we can breakeven at $32 (IDK if it is right or not) so we can keep producing at $50 oil. So the Saudis' gamble is back firing.
Questions to the ppl in the business. How many years are the "experts" predicting that shale oil and gas will give us cheap oil and gas? Will cheap oil and gas last until we have time to develop alternative in 30-50 years (most realistic expectations from what I have heard) or adjust to additional lifestyles (i.e. reurbanization) or are we going to have $12 gas in the next 20 years? I have heard we have 100 years worth of natural gas in the USA but what about oil or those numbers just bullshite?
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:12 pm to WeeWee
I just can't believe this article.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:13 pm to Spirit of Dunson
quote:
However, the shale producers have been much better than expected at cutting fixed costs, and are staying afloat. This may be a waiting game. They are still heavily indebted from the past couple of years (before their cost cutting effort) that they have to dig our from under, though.
At the beginning of july a major tax break for domestic shale producers went into effect.
thats why their level dropped from 50 to 32 for production
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:14 pm to WeeWee
Well to hear oil people talk, you'd think oil was free and never ever will prices rise again
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:15 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Well this new report says we can breakeven at $32
There are not very many wells that can be drilled at that price point and people don't invest money in hopes of breaking even. Like others have said the price depends on a lot of things like where(what basin and the infrastructure in place), how(drilling program in regards to casing, mud, directional), and how long it will produce and at what rates.
quote:
Questions to the ppl in the business. How many years are the "experts" predicting that shale oil and gas will give us cheap oil and gas? Will cheap oil and gas last until we have time to develop alternative in 30-50 years (most realistic expectations from what I have heard) or adjust to additional lifestyles (i.e. reurbanization) or are we going to have $12 gas in the next 20 years? I have heard we have 100 years worth of natural gas in the USA but what about oil or those numbers just bullshite?
No one knows, it is all a guess. Anyone who claims to know is lying. At sub $50 a barrel oil most shale play is going to disappear. I have heard we have a bunch of natural gas but those wells have to be produced when drilled as the come on strong then fall off quickly, you can't just cap them and wait for when prices rise.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:16 pm to WeeWee
Does this mean O&G guys can now sell their Geo Metro and buy F450's again?
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:19 pm to 8thyearsenior
quote:
At sub $50 a barrel oil most shale play is going to disappear
only new plays.
Active plays will continue to run as long as they get that fed tax cut.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:20 pm to kywildcatfanone
KR F450s.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:21 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
The fear mongering from the left about running out of oil has finally run it's course. New reserves are discovered every week and supply is simply outpacing demand. It's really that simple.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:22 pm to bamarep
Why am I still paying $3 per gal? (ETMLIA5)
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:24 pm to 8thyearsenior
quote:
There are not very many wells that can be drilled at that price point and people don't invest money in hopes of breaking even. Like others have said the price depends on a lot of things like where(what basin and the infrastructure in place), how(drilling program in regards to casing, mud, directional), and how long it will produce and at what rates.
Well obviously ppl don't invest to break even, but if new wells can be drilled for $32 and oil price averages $50-$60 for this year and hopefully next then OPEC is in trouble. Russia could be forced to abandon the rebels in Ukraine and Iran its nuclear program. I know oil ppl probably don't care about those thing but for politards like me it is extremely interesting. Obama and his successor should be calling oil and gas ppl everyday to see how the federal government can help or how they can quit hindering the industry so that we can actually bankrupt Iran and Russia.
quote:
No one knows, it is all a guess. Anyone who claims to know is lying. At sub $50 a barrel oil most shale play is going to disappear. I have heard we have a bunch of natural gas but those wells have to be produced when drilled as the come on strong then fall off quickly, you can't just cap them and wait for when prices rise.
So basically those predictions are bullshite? I figured as much. I just hope that we have enough oil and gas to last until we crack the celluosic ethanol and fusion puzzle. I have some friends from grad school that are working for companies and they say reasonable priced cellulosic ethanol is 20 years away and their goal is to have E-25 or E-30 (ducks from the anger of rusting lawnmower engine owners). but they could just be bullshitting me but their genetic research is cool as shite. So hopefully the shale boom keeps gas prices reasonable until then. :fingerscrossed:
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:27 pm to WeeWee
quote:
ell obviously ppl don't invest to break even, but if new wells can be drilled for $32 and oil price averages $50-$60
I would be glad to have O&G companies double their cost, but keep it there.
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:28 pm to WeeWee
I have no idea what exactly is happening but I do know that I just got back to work today from having 2 weeks off and we're already on our third job in the past 3 weeks. We had one job in the entire 4 weeks before that. So it is for sure getting a little better at least. This is GoM
Posted on 7/9/15 at 2:28 pm to HempHead
quote:
I have a hard time believing that shale sands could be profitable at that figure.
This is what I was wondering when reading the article
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