- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: If Brock Bowers or Rome Odunze are still on the board at 14, do you take one of them?
Posted on 3/31/24 at 8:40 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 3/31/24 at 8:40 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
It's deep with B-level guys. There are no elite guys, and Alt is the only B+ prospect.
According to who?
quote:
They don't have to be near that level to not be worth it. Most non-S tier OL don't really step up until year 3. That will (hopefully) be Carr's final year. They won't help at all this year, which your needs-based argument is structured around. Bowers will only not produce in year 1 if our coaches don't want him to.
This is all made up assumption. Several rookie OL drafted in first rounds have produced productively for their teams. You can literally look up every year the amount of rookie OL drafted in first round that are productive .
You have such high hopes for Bowers. I will say this again in the past 20 years very few if any TE in the first round have had a productive rookie season. Yet your almost for certain Bowers will. Most of the leagues best TEs weren’t drafted in the first round.
No offense the basis of your whole argument is based on your personal assessments of draft prospects while Im telling you historically everything you have stated is not true. (For instance by stating Bowers will have an impact if coaches let him). I don’t mind having an argument but using your own analysis of draft prospects for validation of your argument to pick BPA is just silly.
This post was edited on 3/31/24 at 8:49 am
1
Posted on 3/31/24 at 8:48 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
And Im saying the Saints don’t have the luxury of doing that.
This is never a true statement.
quote:
The team is desperate at certain positions specifically on the oline and dline.
We have a 2nd round pick and free agency
Our team is fricked from bad drafting and bad cap management. There is no perfect solution.
quote:
And drafting a BPA at TE and WR makes no sense.
Drafting the best player (where we also have a need) always makes sense.
quote:
If the position you need isn’t graded as high then you trade down pick up assets and help your team.
And pass on a player valued much more highly than his draft position? We are much less likely to have that opportunity later.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 8:51 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
According to who?
Honest draft evaluators.
quote:
This is all made up assumption.
No it's data-based.
quote:
Several rookie OL drafted in first rounds have produced productively for their teams.
Typically these are S-tier prospects. This drat has none of those.
quote:
I will say this again in the past 20 years very few if any TE in the first round have had a productive rookie season.
1. Bowers is the best TE prospect ever
2. Coaches are dumb and try to mold players instead of working around what they do.
As I said, "Bowers will only not produce in year 1 if our coaches don't want him to."
If our coaches want him as an in-line blocker, he probably won't even see the field. That would be retarded, however.
The reason I have so much faith in Bowers producing early is that he's not a particularly good blocker. This means any smart coach will use him as a receiver primarily, which is where he's dominant.
quote:\
No offense you back your whole argument based on your personal assessments of draft prospects
Not mine.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 8:55 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Drafting the best player (where we also have a need) always makes sense.
At WR we have Olave and Shaheed; at TE we have Taysom, juwan and foster. These are not necessary major needs. Who do we have at tackle?
quote:
This is never a true statement.
Again just cause you said so, doesn’t mean its not. Your opinion is not fact.
quote:
We have a 2nd round pick and free agency Our team is fricked from bad drafting and bad cap management. There is no perfect solution.
Free agency is basically over and we can’t pay for a decent player that’s left. Yes we have a second round puck where most the top end talent at your position is probably gone.
quote:
And pass on a player valued much more highly than his draft position? We are much less likely to have that opportunity later.
Again a player you value much more highly. But trading down is a decent option many teams do because they don’t necessarily need a TE or WR as much as they need a olineman or tackle. It happens every year with some team- this isn’t some crazy concept.
This post was edited on 3/31/24 at 9:01 am
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:00 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Honest draft evaluators.
Again who? Honest draft evaluators assess everyone differently. You’re going to use this in your argument than talk about who you think are honest evaluators.
quote:
No it's data-based
Ok provide it. Saying this is from honest draft evaluators is not data.
quote:
Typically these are S-tier prospects. This drat has none of those.
Again according to who? You keep stating these things like you are the draft expert.
quote:
Bowers is the best TE prospect ever 2. Coaches are dumb and try to mold players instead of working around what they do. As I said, "Bowers will only not produce in year 1 if our coaches don't want him to." If our coaches want him as an in-line blocker, he probably won't even see the field. That would be retarded, however. The reason I have so much faith in Bowers producing early is that he's not a particularly good blocker. This means any smart coach will use him as a receiver primarily, which is where he's dominant.
All this said was about Kyle Pitts and you’re admitting the best TE prospect is not even a good blocker. And thats the best TE prospect ever?
quote:
Not mine.
Oh yes its honest draft evaluators that you don’t want to name.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:04 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
And Im saying the Saints don’t have the luxury of doing that. The team is desperate at certain positions specifically on the oline and dline
Why? Worse case scenario is that we role out an offensive line similar to last year. Which was bad don’t get me wrong but is that going to completely fold the organization? No I don’t think so. However you do have an elite talent to build around moving forward.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:07 am to Mpd31
quote:
Why? Worse case scenario is that we role out an offensive line similar to last year. Which was bad don’t get me wrong but is that going to completely fold the organization?
What do you mean fold our organization? We wont be successful if thats what you’re asking. DA will get fired and Loomis may be on the hot seat for DA to begin with. Both Loomis and DA need to win and they can’t do that with a bad oline. I know you think next year doesn’t matter but I can promise you next year matters a lot for this organization.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:07 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
At WR we have Olave and Shaheed; at TE we have Taysom, juwan and foster.
Exactly. We have a need.
quote:
Again just cause you said so, doesn’t mean its not. Your opinion is not fact.
We have historical data over decades that shows over-drafting for needs is -EV and drafting BPA is +EV
quote:
Yes we have a second round puck where most the top end talent at your position is probably gone.
I thought this was a deep OL class
quote:
But trading down is a decent option many teams do because they don’t necessarily need a TE or WR as much as they need a olineman or tackle. It happens every year with some team- this isn’t some crazy concept.
What you're missing is this hypothetical where a Bowers or Odunze falls to us. THAT does not happen every year and is the most important part of the calculation.
Odunze would be WR1 in most drafts and is an A+-tier WR prospect and Bowers is as S-tier as it gets. Best TE prospect in history. These guys don't fall to 14 in basically any draft.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:08 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
We wont be successful if thats what you’re asking. D
We're not likely to be successful.
Passing on S-tier talent in the draft makes it less likely that we're successful.
quote:
Both Loomis and DA need to win and they can’t do that with a bad oline.
You're making an argument why THEY would justify making the -EV decision, not the decision itself objectively.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:26 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:.
It's deep with B-level guys.
There are no elite guys, and Alt is the only B+ prospect
Pretty much. Alt checks nearly every box.
Mims has ~800 snaps on his resume, Guyton has ~1k. They are projects who have the potential to be good. Smell a little like penning coming out
Olu got bullied by strength rushers and leaves a lot to be desired in the run game. Below avg arm length and weight for an OT
Fuaga has T Rex arms and profiles more as a guard
Fuatanu has below average height for a OT. Older guy who broke on to the scene late. Questionable technique gives you Penning vibes again
All this to say these guys also do a lot well. But as you aptly put, they are B level guys and none are a sure thing.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:30 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Exactly. We have a need.
No not really. You think there is a need there. Compared to other position groups not really.
quote:
We have historical data over decades that shows over-drafting for needs is -EV and drafting BPA is +EV
Data you still haven’t shown and need is very subjective. For instance I don’t think there is a need at WR or TE- you think there is.
quote:
I thought this was a deep OL class
Yes and you can still want the best of a deep oline class. Both can be true.
quote:
What you're missing is this hypothetical where a Bowers or Odunze falls to us. THAT does not happen every year and is the most important part of the calculation. Odunze would be WR1 in most drafts and is an A+-tier WR prospect and Bowers is as S-tier as it gets. Best TE prospect in history. These guys don't fall to 14 in basically any draft.
What you’re completely ignoring is historical data on how these similar prospects actually perform after they’re drafted and just assessing current prospect value. Again historically a top prospect TE in the first round does not have an immediate impact. I mean in your own words hes the best TE prospect ever but not a great blocker. Thats a pretty big deficiency.
I like Odunze and he may be an impactful player but history again tells us its a 50/50 shot at first round WR panning out. Again you are looking at strictly current value of prospects and I’m telling you historically how they perform while in the NFL is not always indicative of their prospect value. By the way players like this fall every draft- this wouldn’t be some odd anomaly.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:35 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
We're not likely to be successful. Passing on S-tier talent in the draft makes it less likely that we're successful.
Agree on the first part regardless. Disagree on the second. Loading up on talent on one position because you went BPA instead of improving another position where you are severely lacking in talent would not increase you being more successful.
quote:
You're making an argument why THEY would justify making the -EV decision, not the decision itself objectively.
I’m not you’re assuming a lot from my statement.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:38 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
What do you mean fold our organization? We wont be successful if thats what you’re asking. DA will get fired and Loomis may be on the hot seat for DA to begin with.
Is DA getting fired such a horrible thing? Even on a bad team good HC show you some promise. Loomis won’t be on the hot seat. He has a lot of leash
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:45 am to Mpd31
quote:
Is DA getting fired such a horrible thing? Even on a bad team good HC show you some promise. Loomis won’t be on the hot seat. He has a lot of leash
No its not. But this organization is not drafting like they’re going to fire DA. I’m pretty sure DA will have a say in who he wants to draft.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:50 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
What you’re completely ignoring is historical data on how these similar prospects actually perform after they’re drafted and just assessing current prospect value.
You are not even looking at talent. You are just looking at statistics. You are making an assumption that the talent level amongst groups are the same every year. Odunze would have been the first receiver off the board if he was drafted last year. The level of talent amongst groups fluctuates every year which is why BPA is recommended. Except for Alt the tackle class all have flaws. They may be good and they may even be great but there is risk behind them. They aren’t all home runs.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:51 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
No its not. But this organization is not drafting like they’re going to fire DA. I’m pretty sure DA will have a say in who he wants to draft.
It is loomis’s call. He should do what is best for the team not DA. This is also not a debate on what the saints will do but a debate on what they should do
This post was edited on 3/31/24 at 9:54 am
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:57 am to Mpd31
quote:
You are not even looking at talent. You are just looking at statistics. You are making an assumption that the talent level amongst groups are the same every year. Odunze would have been the first receiver off the board if he was drafted last year. The level of talent amongst groups fluctuates every year which is why BPA is recommended. Except for Alt the tackle class all have flaws. They may be good and they may even be great but there is risk behind them. They aren’t all home runs.
Im not. Im assessing things differently than you. Yes I get it every draft or prospect is different but in the end historically when these prospects play in their rookie year its really not. Talent on the field is exemplified by statistics you produce on the field.
What you’re saying about the tackle class(minus Alt) you can say about any other position group as well. The draft is a gamble even the best sure things flop and to act like someone is more of a sure thing than someone else without them competing in a NFL is nothing more than a calculated guess. You can’t sit here and tell me getting Bowers or Odunze are homeruns and sure things. Because we know historically for that not to be true and again its just a guess.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:59 am to Mpd31
These are you historical OL the saints have selected early 
Jamal Brown 13th overall
Charles Brown 64th overall
Peat 13th overall
Ruiz 24th overll
Penning 19th overall (plus picks via trade up)
McCoy 48th (win)
Ram 32nd (win)
......
Strief 210 overall (7th rd)
Jahri 108th (4th rd)
Bushrod 125th (4th rd)
Armstead 75th (3rd rd)
Nicks 164th (5th rd)
You know, just some All Pros and some of the best OL in Saints history
Jamal Brown 13th overall
Charles Brown 64th overall
Peat 13th overall
Ruiz 24th overll
Penning 19th overall (plus picks via trade up)
McCoy 48th (win)
Ram 32nd (win)
......
Strief 210 overall (7th rd)
Jahri 108th (4th rd)
Bushrod 125th (4th rd)
Armstead 75th (3rd rd)
Nicks 164th (5th rd)
You know, just some All Pros and some of the best OL in Saints history
Posted on 3/31/24 at 10:00 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
No not really. You think there is a need there.
We don't have very good TEs and have no size at WR
Just because we are overpaying 3 TEs doesn't mean we have talent there.
quote:
I mean in your own words hes the best TE prospect ever but not a great blocker. Thats a pretty big deficiency.
Not really, especially with the power slot position
quote:
I like Odunze and he may be an impactful player but history again tells us its a 50/50 shot at first round WR panning out.
All positions have bust rates, even OL/DL. If you want to see this in action, look at our drafts.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 10:02 am to Mpd31
quote:
It is loomis’s call. He should do what is best for the team not DA. This is also not a debate on what the saints will do but a debate on what they should do
OK fine let’s go by what Saints SHOULD do. You think if Saints have decided to retain DA- they SHOULDNT involve him in the draft process and not try to support him for next season? Whats best for DA is best for this team because Loomis is going try to help DA win- whether we like that or not.
Page 6 of 22
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News