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How soon do our top 4 guys have to produce for this draft to be as success?
Posted on 5/1/16 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 5/1/16 at 12:54 pm
i don't dislike the picks themselves, but our FO hates making a full draft and we are left woefully thin because of this
the draft is a 50/50 shot for the most part, so when you have few selections AND you pay that cost in order to move up, the FO had better hit on its picks at a high rate AND have those guys come in relatively early to produce (otherwise it's a terrible strategy that creates major holes)
so how many have to hit and how soon do they need to produce to justify this strategy?
the draft is a 50/50 shot for the most part, so when you have few selections AND you pay that cost in order to move up, the FO had better hit on its picks at a high rate AND have those guys come in relatively early to produce (otherwise it's a terrible strategy that creates major holes)
so how many have to hit and how soon do they need to produce to justify this strategy?
11
Posted on 5/1/16 at 12:59 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:2 or 3, at least, need to hit in every draft. When you minimize your picks, you minimize the likelihood that this happens, but that doesn't change the threshold IMO.
so how many have to hit and how soon do they need to produce to justify this strategy?
As far as timing, it needs to happen in 2 years or less. Anything later than that and they won't be on this team.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 12:59 pm to SlowFlowPro
Rankins and Thomas need to start immediately. Bell needs to be out there at least in the nickel in his first season.
Canada, I give him 2 seasons.
Canada, I give him 2 seasons.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:13 pm to SlowFlowPro
The only instant starter is Thomas
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:15 pm to rmnldr
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:16 pm to rmnldr
Disagree. Bell will play in the nickel which in this league is basically a starting position and rankins will be on the field immediately.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:18 pm to SlowFlowPro
All 4 will play major roles this year.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:22 pm to SlowFlowPro
I hate the strategy, because you reduce your chances of hitting. The draft is a crapshoot, but every draft, there's several mid round picks that blow up, and this FO (shared with the Pelicans) refuses to maximize their hit potential.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:26 pm to SlowFlowPro
Saints are at a point where they need immediate production from their first 3 picks, and I think they will contribute immediately (baring injuries).
More importantly we need the 2015 class to stay healthy and improve as well. Leaps by Peat, Anthony, Daveison, and Kikaha will do wonders. Williams, Swann, and Tull contributing, if possible, would be huge. Grayson isn't a factor, though that pick was still wasted for how high he was selected.
More importantly we need the 2015 class to stay healthy and improve as well. Leaps by Peat, Anthony, Daveison, and Kikaha will do wonders. Williams, Swann, and Tull contributing, if possible, would be huge. Grayson isn't a factor, though that pick was still wasted for how high he was selected.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
I think Rankins and Thomas both have to hit. Thomas becoming a legit #1 will immediately improve other guys like Cooks and have a trickle down effect on the offense. Why the DLine needs to improve is obvious. If either busts or even just does what Malcom Jenkins did, show a few flashes as a rookie and never get on track, that would be a huge set back. As much as people are complaining about losing middle round picks I think that's a mentality we've developed because the Saints pre Ireland have been so bad at the early rounds and relatively good in the mid-late rounds. We've forgotten what an impact hitting on your first 2 picks can have.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:37 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
I hate the strategy, because you reduce your chances of hitting. The draft is a crapshoot, but every draft, there's several mid round picks that blow up, and this FO (shared with the Pelicans) refuses to maximize their hit potential.
quote:
The percentage of players drafted 2005-14 who became starters by rounds: Round 1: 65.1% Round 2: 43.5% Round 3: 27.7% Round 4: 19.6% Round 5: 13.8% Round 6: 11% Round 7: 4.5%
Looking at it this way, it seems that acquiring 2nd and third round pics in exchange for fourth round pics is actually a higher percentage proposition than keeping fourth and fifth round pics.
So I just don't think that it's not necessarily a higher percentage to have more pics. I think it's only so If you take reaches or projects. The saints stayed away from that unlike past years.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:39 pm to LSUZombie
Agreed. Last year's draft class seemed to be a sort of new foundation, and those guys absolutely need to develop for us to have any success in the future. Tull and PJ staying healthy and contributing has to happen.
Rankins and Thomas are basically Day 1 starters, and Bell will be a big contributor who should breathe new life into Byrd and Vaccarro. I think Bell brings Vaccarro into the box while he and Byrd patrol the secondary as ball hawks. I don't think it spells the end of Byrd, as some are saying. I think it keeps him from having to cover the entire field, like we've been having to have him do.
Canada can hopefully spot contribute while developing into something more.
Rankins and Thomas are basically Day 1 starters, and Bell will be a big contributor who should breathe new life into Byrd and Vaccarro. I think Bell brings Vaccarro into the box while he and Byrd patrol the secondary as ball hawks. I don't think it spells the end of Byrd, as some are saying. I think it keeps him from having to cover the entire field, like we've been having to have him do.
Canada can hopefully spot contribute while developing into something more.
This post was edited on 5/1/16 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:40 pm to SlowFlowPro
Same as any pick.
1st rounder year 1.
2nd rounders need to contribute year 1 and more year 2.
Onyemata needs to be a heavy contributor year 3
1st rounder year 1.
2nd rounders need to contribute year 1 and more year 2.
Onyemata needs to be a heavy contributor year 3
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:41 pm to Mattwells90
quote:
Bell will play in the nickel
Vaccaro will be the primary nickel/box safety. Bell will play a more traditional role, but they will no doubt mix things up at times given what each guy can do.
Edit:
Unless you meant nickel packages, which yes I see us going with a lot of 3 safety sets given our poor CB depth (unless Williams shows something).
This post was edited on 5/1/16 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 5/1/16 at 1:53 pm to higgsBoson
quote:
Looking at it this way, it seems that acquiring 2nd and third round pics in exchange for fourth round pics is actually a higher percentage proposition than keeping fourth and fifth round pics.
Well that isn't what we did. We traded an early 3rd and 4th round pick to get the 3rd to last pick in the 2nd round. Even if you look at every pick in a round with equal likelihood of becoming a starter (which isn't the case obviously), the chances of getting a starter with a pick in the 3rd and 4th is 47.3% instead of just 43.5% in the 2nd round. Also, teams are more willing to stick with a guy or give him an early chance when they pick him higher, which will skew the numbers towards higher picks.
I'm not going to freak out about it, but I'd prefer draft picks over moving up every day of the week.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 2:05 pm to SlowFlowPro
We stunk the last two years so soon!
Posted on 5/1/16 at 2:13 pm to SlowFlowPro
The first 2 will likely be starters week 1 with the 3rd pick getting significant playing time in the secondary in week 1. The 4th pick will likely start rotating into the defensive lineup in certain packages midway through the season. The 5th pick will probably be a special teamer on day one, though I doubt he will get much work in on offense unless Cadet and Spiller get hurt. One of our UDFAs may end up starting at Right Guard some point this year.
I think all of our picks will see the field and be productive this year.
I think all of our picks will see the field and be productive this year.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:08 pm to bonethug0108
Yep. I meant when we go nickel.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:19 pm to SlowFlowPro
Other than at offensive line the saints have depth check the roster.
To answer your question 3 years is the best bet unless you're god awful like sjb.
To answer your question 3 years is the best bet unless you're god awful like sjb.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 12:48 pm to Mattwells90
quote:
Yep. I meant when we go nickel.
Gotcha. And the nfl average was 65% sub (which is mostly nickel) to only 35% base so nickel is the new base (and has been for a few years).
I like Bell (if he is as advertised) a hell of a lot more than any our CBs not named Lewis or Breaux. Him and Vaccaro can share actual nickelback duties.
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