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Zach Lowe splashes a little cold water on Pels
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:20 pm
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:20 pm
Today’s Lowe Post podcast they have a good discussion on the Pels. They start talking at 34 minutes about the team.
Kevin Pelton had the Pels at 39 wins under the statistical model.
Lowe and Pelton both found that a little surprising. Lowe is gravely concerned over the lack of shooting and depth on the roster. He thinks Adams was a surprising move and he questions the fit. Thinks the cost to acquire Adams cap wise really hamstrung us in the depth department. Also thinks our starting lineups shooting is going to shrink the floor down to a pinpoint.
It’s a very good listen. Lowe basically says that he doesn’t know what to think of this roster.
Kevin Pelton had the Pels at 39 wins under the statistical model.
Lowe and Pelton both found that a little surprising. Lowe is gravely concerned over the lack of shooting and depth on the roster. He thinks Adams was a surprising move and he questions the fit. Thinks the cost to acquire Adams cap wise really hamstrung us in the depth department. Also thinks our starting lineups shooting is going to shrink the floor down to a pinpoint.
It’s a very good listen. Lowe basically says that he doesn’t know what to think of this roster.
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Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:26 pm to Fun Bunch
I find the team to have a ton of depth just like last season. It is almost too much depth to develop and get on the court.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:36 pm to Colonel Flagg
I really don’t think so at all and it’s what I’ve said since FA ended. The depth is super concerning.
Basically Wenyen Gabriel has to pan out or we could be in serious trouble.
Basically Wenyen Gabriel has to pan out or we could be in serious trouble.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:45 pm to Fun Bunch
What is the concern? You have a bench of 9 deep minimum that can get solid minutes every night and it is not a reach to play them.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:47 pm to Colonel Flagg
(no message)
This post was edited on 12/27/20 at 9:59 pm
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:48 pm to Fun Bunch
We have a bunch of combo guards but not a lot of size at the wing position.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:48 pm to Fun Bunch
The team has depth in theory. It's unproven depth for sure, but the potential is there for it to be good enough.
Would people think the Pels were that much better with Baynes and Crowder and a resigned Moore instead of Adams? Because the depth that was available wasn't world beating.
We have to let these kids prove themselves some time and sooner is better than later in terms of giving them time in seasons that matter less. I'm not saying the depth problem is solved, but I understand the calculated risk. Lowe himself said he didn't think the Pels were bad, just that he had no idea how to project them because the Pels will go as Zion and Ingram go largely.
Would people think the Pels were that much better with Baynes and Crowder and a resigned Moore instead of Adams? Because the depth that was available wasn't world beating.
We have to let these kids prove themselves some time and sooner is better than later in terms of giving them time in seasons that matter less. I'm not saying the depth problem is solved, but I understand the calculated risk. Lowe himself said he didn't think the Pels were bad, just that he had no idea how to project them because the Pels will go as Zion and Ingram go largely.
This post was edited on 12/7/20 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:51 pm to Colonel Flagg
quote:
What is the concern? You have a bench of 9 deep minimum
Lowe sees it as 7. He doesn’t trust a single bench person after Hart and JJ...and I tend to agree. He likes Wenyen Gabriel though and was surprised he didn’t get slightly more than the minimum.
Now, this is strictly in terms of this year and relying on guys to make the playoffs.
Jaxson and NAW need to develop and can’t be “trusted” yet. Melli I like a lot more than he does but he can be very spotty. Gabriel and Hernangomez are minimum guys. Thornwell is a nobody. Kira is a rookie.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:53 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
The team has depth in theory. It's unproven depth for sure, but the potential is there for it to be good enough.
That’s the issue, you are talking potential depth and I agree.
Lowe is talking depth “you can trust” and I sort of agree with him as well. It’s concerning.
If a guy like Gabriel pans out, and Kira catches on quick, or NAW and Jaxson take nice year 2 leaps, we are good.
But at the same time, none of those could happen. And then things get dicey.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:54 pm to Fun Bunch
Much rather prefer the media overlook the Pelicans than overhype them. We know how last turned out when the media loved the Pelicans.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 8:57 pm to supe12sta12z
Like I said, Pelton had us making the playoffs.
Lowe just thinks we are sort of inexplicable. He loves SVG and Zion and thinks we could be awesome. He just has so many questions.
And they are the same two questions we have debated here: shooting and depth. Both are valid concerns.
I actually think shooting is the bigger concern than depth. I am really curious about the shooting.
Lowe just thinks we are sort of inexplicable. He loves SVG and Zion and thinks we could be awesome. He just has so many questions.
And they are the same two questions we have debated here: shooting and depth. Both are valid concerns.
I actually think shooting is the bigger concern than depth. I am really curious about the shooting.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 9:22 pm to Fun Bunch
I don’t think the depth on this team is bad. It’s not the best in the league, but nobody expected it to be.
You have numerous guys that can play the point. Bledsoe, Lonzo, Lewis, NAW.
Numerous guys that can play on the wing. Ingram, Hart, Redick, Lonzo, NAW, Thornwell.
Zion and Melli at the 4, Gabriel possibly as a dark horse. And at the 5 you have Adams, Hernangomez, and Hayes.
You could argue we need a little more size on the wing, and could probably use another guy behind Zion and Melli, but I don’t think there’s any huge holes on this roster.
Would have been nice to use one of those picks to fill out the roster a little bit more to be honest.
You have numerous guys that can play the point. Bledsoe, Lonzo, Lewis, NAW.
Numerous guys that can play on the wing. Ingram, Hart, Redick, Lonzo, NAW, Thornwell.
Zion and Melli at the 4, Gabriel possibly as a dark horse. And at the 5 you have Adams, Hernangomez, and Hayes.
You could argue we need a little more size on the wing, and could probably use another guy behind Zion and Melli, but I don’t think there’s any huge holes on this roster.
Would have been nice to use one of those picks to fill out the roster a little bit more to be honest.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 9:25 pm to Fun Bunch
That’s not much different than last season and they were fine on offense. The top 7 guys last year averaged 111.6 PPG while the team averaged 115.8.
And if you total up the top 7 in this years lineup, their averages last season was 109.3. This is with Bledsoe playing career low minutes since he became a starting caliber guard.
I don’t think scoring will be an issue. We have a lot of talented scorers on the team. What we should focus on is the ability to close games. That will continue to be the difference between winning and losing game. That’s the biggest question mark to me.
And if you total up the top 7 in this years lineup, their averages last season was 109.3. This is with Bledsoe playing career low minutes since he became a starting caliber guard.
I don’t think scoring will be an issue. We have a lot of talented scorers on the team. What we should focus on is the ability to close games. That will continue to be the difference between winning and losing game. That’s the biggest question mark to me.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:05 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
And they are the same two questions we have debated here: shooting and depth. Both are valid concerns.
I actually think shooting is the bigger concern than depth. I am really curious about the shooting.
Lowe was concerned with outside shooting in our starting lineup, but it's certainly not any worse than in last year's starting group. Jrue shot 35% from 3 last year, and we're replacing him with a guy who shot 34%. Are we expecting BI and Lonzo to regress? I expect the opposite.
Losing Frank and Kenrich is certainly no loss to our outside shooting. E'Twaun? Sure, that hurts our shooting depth a little, and JJ may not be quite as quick as he was last year, and that might mean that he's open less.
But yes, that's why it's important that NAW step up. I believe that one of the big keys to the season and the Pels' future is the improvement (or lack of it) of NAW and Hayes. And I think that we're going to see it, which is why I think that we can win a playoff series.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:29 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
Lowe is gravely concerned over the lack of shooting
The same thing was said last season. Shooting was not close to the top of the list of reasons why the team was bad last season. It was actually one of the few things the team did well. This team is roughly equal to last years team in regards to shooting.
Not to mention, the lineup of Jrue, Lonzo, BI, Zion, and Favors put up a +18 in plus/minus last season. Obviously it was a smaller sample size and will likely come back to earth a bit, but subbing Bledsoe for Jrue, and Adams for Favors shouldn’t be the cause of the drop off there (talent wise that should be close to a wash).
I understand the concern in regards to depth, our depth is really young and we’ll be relying on some inexperienced players to contribute. JJ and Hart are really our only guys with considerable experience coming off of the bench. NAW, Melli, Hayes, Gabriel, and Kira are next in line and will have to play a decent amount of minutes over the season and I’m not sure how much they’ll contribute to winning basketball.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:54 pm to GOP_Tiger
Zach Lowe is wondering how you draw defenders out of the paint and I don't think you will. Using the MLE wouldn't have solved that problem, the Pels would need an All NBA guard with a good 3 point shot to make teams discount Zion and Ingram as threats.
If you want to stop the Pels you have to try and stop Zion in the paint and Ingram from 16 feet and in, so the paint will be packed regardless. I think the Pels are going to have no choice but to attack a packed paint in an unorthodox manner, head on.
Ingram and Zion's passing will be more important to the team's success than Lonzo's 3 point shooting. Space will be created by players moving, not sitting at the 3 point line.
Free Throws will also be important. Ingram averaged 6.3 FTs per 36, Zion averaged 9.6. Get the other team into the penalty early and then aggressively packing the paint will just lead to more trips to the line.
If you want to stop the Pels you have to try and stop Zion in the paint and Ingram from 16 feet and in, so the paint will be packed regardless. I think the Pels are going to have no choice but to attack a packed paint in an unorthodox manner, head on.
Ingram and Zion's passing will be more important to the team's success than Lonzo's 3 point shooting. Space will be created by players moving, not sitting at the 3 point line.
Free Throws will also be important. Ingram averaged 6.3 FTs per 36, Zion averaged 9.6. Get the other team into the penalty early and then aggressively packing the paint will just lead to more trips to the line.
This post was edited on 12/7/20 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 12/7/20 at 11:10 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
gravely concerned over the lack of shooting.
I'm so tired of this train of thought.
The Lakers were 21st in 3pt shooting last year.
The Warriors broke the perception of how you can win a title to a lot of these nba guys now, and make you think you need 4-5 guys that can shoot 40% from 3 to win.
The Lakers smothered people on defense and that's how they hung their hat every night. They all bought in and it worked.
The Pels didn't run offensive sets often and when they did it was nonsensical and didn't make sense from a personnel standpoint (Jrue/Favors pnr anyone?). Stan already said he's taking the ball out of Lonzos hands. He gets it.
Our young and talented yet raw team hired a proven coach that made them run defensive drills only for their first practice. If Ingram makes a mini leap again and Zion plays 28-30 minutes a game this league is fricked if we can get our heads around playing good defense.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 11:29 pm to whatiknowsofar
Zion is going to take a lot of 3s this season. Mark my words, he’s going to shoot it at a 35% clip on decent volume. Look at his form in this video.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 12/8/20 at 12:11 am to Colonel Flagg
Yea there’s a difference in depth and quality depth.
Posted on 12/8/20 at 12:11 am to Fun Bunch
Our depth is better from last year, as well as our roster balance. Lowe could have picked better reasons to chunk cold water on the Pels. I’m hoping the performance team can keep the team healthy and on the court. Injury has been the Achilles heel.
This post was edited on 12/8/20 at 12:13 am
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