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Started By
Message
re: Summer League Game Thread: Pels vs Hornets 6:30 PM CT
Posted on 7/14/23 at 12:57 pm to Pels_Yaz
Posted on 7/14/23 at 12:57 pm to Pels_Yaz
I would be thrilled if Hawkins had a similar career as Buddy, though that's a tough one for a few different reasons. I would say Buddy was much further along skills wise than Hawkins, but Buddy was 24 when he was a rookie.
There were quite a few reasons I didn't like the Hawkins selection, some we've discussed some we haven't, but another issue that Hield is kind of a good representation for, there's nobody on this board that wanted to pay Hield $22M a year. It seems that's where shooters fall most of the time, they're always in a universe where they're grossly overpaid, like Buddy and Duncan Robinson, or they just don't have that much value and are signed for the minimum or traded for second round picks, like Malik Beasley and Luke Kennard.
There were quite a few reasons I didn't like the Hawkins selection, some we've discussed some we haven't, but another issue that Hield is kind of a good representation for, there's nobody on this board that wanted to pay Hield $22M a year. It seems that's where shooters fall most of the time, they're always in a universe where they're grossly overpaid, like Buddy and Duncan Robinson, or they just don't have that much value and are signed for the minimum or traded for second round picks, like Malik Beasley and Luke Kennard.
This post was edited on 7/14/23 at 12:59 pm
2
Posted on 7/14/23 at 1:04 pm to CP3forMVP
Yeah agreed. We can sit here arguing stats, comps and recent history with rookies but the Hawkins pick will always be very questionable. The question will always be was he worth drafting knowing his impact his rookie year will likely be minimal. And if thats the case why is shooting such a big concern, draft the guy with more potential or save money and trade down or out of the draft.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 1:10 pm to CP3forMVP
quote:
There were quite a few reasons I didn't like the Hawkins selection, some we've discussed some we haven't, but another issue that Hield is kind of a good representation for, there's nobody on this board that wanted to pay Hield $22M a year. It seems that's where shooters fall most of the time, they're always in a universe where they're grossly overpaid, like Buddy and Duncan Robinson, or they just don't have that much value and are signed for the minimum or traded for second round picks, like Malik Beasley and Luke Kennard.
Are there any shooters that aren't on a minimum or rookie contract thats considered a good contract?
Duncan Robinson - Bad
Hield - Was bad but now is just an overpaid expiring
Kennard - His is probably the best at 15m which is still not great
Fournier - bad
Posted on 7/14/23 at 1:55 pm to Pels_Yaz
quote:
draft the guy with more potential or save money and trade down or out of the draft.
You say this like these options are always on the table. If there was someone with more potential, in their eyes (not ours), then why wouldn't they have taken him?
Projecting this guys career after a few summer league games is nonsense. He may not play much this season and thats a separate issue, but is it that big of a deal? Nope.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 2:00 pm to SaintEB
I guess it depends when you were one of the worst 3 pt shooting and defense blocking teams in the league and you did nothing to address either. Maybe thats a big deal especially wheb your team is constantly struggling in those areas.
Maybe there wasn’t someone in THEIR eyes, that doesn’t mean they weren’t wrong.
Its not a big deal again if thats their gameplan but I argue when we already have tons of guys and need help in certain areas why not try trading down. But I get your argument they valued Hawkins too much to do that- time will tell if thats really worth it if your trying to win now with Zion and BI.
Maybe there wasn’t someone in THEIR eyes, that doesn’t mean they weren’t wrong.
Its not a big deal again if thats their gameplan but I argue when we already have tons of guys and need help in certain areas why not try trading down. But I get your argument they valued Hawkins too much to do that- time will tell if thats really worth it if your trying to win now with Zion and BI.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 2:43 pm to Pels_Yaz
quote:
that doesn’t mean they weren’t wrong
But my point is that 4 summer league games doesn't prove that they were wrong, or right.
quote:
why not try trading down.
Maybe they didn't find value in trading down. I'm not trying to say they valued Hawkins too much to trade, but that they value they were getting, was worse than their valuation of Hawkins, maybe. None of us know for sure.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 2:50 pm to SaintEB
quote:
But my point is that 4 summer league games doesn't prove that they were wrong, or right.
The truth is that Summer League is only a very weak predictor of future success. Yes, the poor performance from Hawkins is not good -- of course it would be better if he had performed well.
But the "I told ya so!" takes are just stupid. As plenty have noted, but Jaxson and NAW had great summer league performances and never amounted to much.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 6:24 pm to GOP_Tiger
I agree and I’m not harping on the I told you so takes of any kind. What Hawkins performance in summer league is telling to me is that it will take him some time to develop and it doesn’t seem like he will be an immediate contributor in his rookie season. There were some people here who argued and will continue to state that he can be an important contributor as a rookie- maybe but he has take a lot of leaps in certain areas to be that which could be possible but highly unlikely.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:10 pm to Pels_Yaz
If Hawkins isn’t contributing by spring, it was the wrong move.
This team needs contributors from its first rounders. They should have traded up to get Walker. At least he fills a roster spot.
This team needs contributors from its first rounders. They should have traded up to get Walker. At least he fills a roster spot.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:16 pm to Pels_Yaz
Rookies almost never make significant positive contributions.
I looked up the Total RAPTOR scores for last year's first-round rookies. How many do you think had a positive score, meaning that they produced above-average play?
It was three: Walker Kessler, Tari Eason, and Dalen Terry. Dyson was oh-so-close with a score of -0.1.
Something like 70% of those draft picks had Total RAPTOR scores that were not only negative, but lower than the "replacement player" score of -2.8, including both the #1 and #3 overall picks.
Rookies suck. Yes, there was a possibility that Hawkins could significantly contribute as a rookie, but the odds were extremely low, and anyone counting on that wasn't very smart.
I looked up the Total RAPTOR scores for last year's first-round rookies. How many do you think had a positive score, meaning that they produced above-average play?
It was three: Walker Kessler, Tari Eason, and Dalen Terry. Dyson was oh-so-close with a score of -0.1.
Something like 70% of those draft picks had Total RAPTOR scores that were not only negative, but lower than the "replacement player" score of -2.8, including both the #1 and #3 overall picks.
Rookies suck. Yes, there was a possibility that Hawkins could significantly contribute as a rookie, but the odds were extremely low, and anyone counting on that wasn't very smart.
This post was edited on 7/14/23 at 7:40 pm
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:28 pm to GOP_Tiger
There are many people on this board who think he can. I agree with you though and his poor showing in the summer league solidified that.
I mean yes you can look at Raptor but just last year Braun played well for a winning nuggets team, the year before Herb, Jose and Trey on our team contributed greatly to us making the playoffs. I mean heck thunder beat us in the play-in and that was partly due to Jalen Williams. So I wouldn’t just use stats and say the odds are extremely low based off Raptor. Stats sometimes skew the bigger picture and impact if a rookie.
I mean yes you can look at Raptor but just last year Braun played well for a winning nuggets team, the year before Herb, Jose and Trey on our team contributed greatly to us making the playoffs. I mean heck thunder beat us in the play-in and that was partly due to Jalen Williams. So I wouldn’t just use stats and say the odds are extremely low based off Raptor. Stats sometimes skew the bigger picture and impact if a rookie.
This post was edited on 7/14/23 at 7:30 pm
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:46 pm to Pels_Yaz
quote:
Braun played well for a winning nuggets team
Braun did not play "very well." He played OK. His Total RAPTOR was -1.6. That's why he was a backup who played 15 minutes per game -- most backups produce below-average play (that's why they aren't starters). A score of -1.6 is still significantly better than a replacement-level player.
quote:
I mean heck thunder beat us in the play-in and that was partly due to Jalen Williams
Lots of rookies improve significantly during the course of their rookie season, which should surprise no one. He was one of those.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
Man Raptor stats are not everything. Again where we disagree. So its useless to have a discussion if you’re just going to keep throwing Raptor stats at me. I don’t think thats the only way to assess the impact of a rookie on a winning team. Braun was playing good basketball in the nba finals. I think his impact was more than OK even Jokic acknowledged his play in the Finals.
Edit: according to raptor derrick white was the tenth best player in the NBA last season. I highly doubt anyone agrees with that.
Edit: according to raptor derrick white was the tenth best player in the NBA last season. I highly doubt anyone agrees with that.
This post was edited on 7/14/23 at 7:58 pm
Posted on 7/14/23 at 8:28 pm to Pels_Yaz
There is no catchall metric. Hawkins will be judged by how he can do things beyond shooting. If he can work on catching the ball that’d be wonderful
Posted on 7/15/23 at 7:56 am to ThanosIsADemocrat
quote:
If he can work on catching the ball that’d be wonderful
After reading several posts about his bobbles, I made it a point to pay attention in the Hornets game and he will be unplayable in the NBA if he doesn't clean it up. Even if you retain possession, it still ruins the offensive flow.
This post was edited on 7/15/23 at 7:57 am
Posted on 7/15/23 at 10:01 am to Jester
quote:100%.
After reading several posts about his bobbles, I made it a point to pay attention in the Hornets game and he will be unplayable in the NBA if he doesn't clean it up. Even if you retain possession, it still ruins the offensive flow.
I’m low on Hawkins. If all he can do is shoot, it’s a waste. If you have to feature him to get replacement level production, then this will be a waste.
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see him cracking the rotation. Which is a huge problem.
Bad picks:
Hayes
Lewis
NAW
Good picks:
Murphy
Herb
TBD:
Daniels
The Pels need to come out of the off-season with a rotation player (ideally a power forward who can shoot, imo).
They drafted a pure shooter who might not be able to do anything else on an nba level.
Like Trajan Langdon, the player.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:05 pm to ThanosIsADemocrat
quote:
Bad picks: Hayes Lewis NAW Good picks: Murphy Herb TBD: Daniels
Bad picks:
Hayes
NAW
Good picks:
Murphy
Herb
Liddell
Daniels
TBD:
Lewis
Hawkins
Kira: (pick wasn’t that bad) (what happened after that sucks but y’all have to let this one go. It’s just unfortunate and the kid can still prove to be a rotation player. Most likely on another team.
This post was edited on 7/15/23 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:23 pm to Dantheman504
Lewis was a poor pick because they drafted a kid who needed reps and playing time and they didn't give him the opportunity to play and learn through his mistakes. Makes zero sense looking back at.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:27 pm to Dantheman504
The Kira pick was bad. And in all honesty there aren’t many teams that want him in their rotation. Even in minutes that he did get last year, he didn’t show anything. I like the kid but he hasn’t shown the ability to be a reliable NBA rotation player.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:28 pm to supe12sta12z
Lets be honest part of that was because Jose took his spot and Graham’s and played much better than both of them and is cheaper too.
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