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re: Sprint for the 8th Seed
Posted on 8/4/20 at 6:57 am to RUFshreve
Posted on 8/4/20 at 6:57 am to RUFshreve
quote:
I don't see how thats possible. They feel like our biggest threat for the 8th seed now.
Without Aldridge, the 538 computer just doesn't think that the Spurs have the talent to get it done. The computer essentially thinks that the way the Spurs have played so far is a fluke. The 538 system is based on player talent, but it doesn't include a measure for coaching talent.
2
Posted on 8/4/20 at 7:26 am to Broski
quote:
No chance in hell we make up 3.5 games with 8 to play.
Looking ahead a little bit but if the Jazz beat the Grizzlies tomorrow and the Pelicans beat the Kings on Thursday (both likely) then we’ll only be 1.5 games back with 4 left to play.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 8:35 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The 538 system is based on player talent, but it doesn't include a measure for coaching talent.
No wonder it has us so high
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:01 am to GOP_Tiger
That makes sense, in a vacuum Portland is the more talented team than Sab Antonio.
But Portland also has a MUCH harder schedule and they dont have Pops. SA is playing good ball right now, like they typically do come crunch time.
Our game with them may decide the 8th seed.
But Portland also has a MUCH harder schedule and they dont have Pops. SA is playing good ball right now, like they typically do come crunch time.
Our game with them may decide the 8th seed.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:08 am to RUFshreve
Also, Kings are playing the Mavs this afternoon at 1:30 pm central. Both teams are 0-2 in Orlando, but the Mavs barely lost their two games. The Kings lost their two games handily.
The Mavs are still battling Houston for that 6th seed, I think they're 2 games back from the Rockets. So they still have alot to play for and their duo of Luka and KP have been looking great since the restart, so I think the rest of the team does their part and Mavs win comfortably today.
The spread is at -6 and I put some money on it. Mavs will finally put it together today. They are the much better team.
The Mavs are still battling Houston for that 6th seed, I think they're 2 games back from the Rockets. So they still have alot to play for and their duo of Luka and KP have been looking great since the restart, so I think the rest of the team does their part and Mavs win comfortably today.
The spread is at -6 and I put some money on it. Mavs will finally put it together today. They are the much better team.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:12 am to ForeverEllisHugh
They actually have two predictive models.
The Players one, that has us at 41%.
They also have ELO, which is a system that has been around forever and long long predates 538. Its just a "basic" ratings system that factors in the past wins and losses, margins of victory and the future games. I'm not a math guy so I don't know the details.
That has us at 18% and the Grizzlies at 54%. The Spurs are at 12%.
The Players one, that has us at 41%.
They also have ELO, which is a system that has been around forever and long long predates 538. Its just a "basic" ratings system that factors in the past wins and losses, margins of victory and the future games. I'm not a math guy so I don't know the details.
That has us at 18% and the Grizzlies at 54%. The Spurs are at 12%.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:16 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
How dumb are we?
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:19 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
That has us at 18% and the Grizzlies at 54%. The Spurs are at 12%.
That seems about right to me. Easier schedule and all, we have a tough road ahead. And there's a decent chance that not just Milwaukee, but Boston and Toronto will be resting starters bc their seeding could potentially be set by then. We're in trouble if that happens.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:24 am to iwyLSUiwy
Is system setup that if we get 9th and are less then 4 games back we get a play in game with 8 th seed.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:27 am to EXPLAYER
Yes the West will definitely have a play-in game between the 8th and 9th seed at this point. The 9 seed will have to beat the 8 seed twice to make the first round of the playoffs and match up against the lakers.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:29 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
So we don’t really have to beat out Memphis . Stay with in 4 games and get 9 th. Not best way to get in but gets us in.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:35 am to EXPLAYER
Still sticking to my prediction from first page that we beat out Memphis by .5 game. We finish 4-1 and they finish 1-4
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:35 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Still in play in game then? But we only need to win one then correct
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:41 am to EXPLAYER
Yes
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:47 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Can we legit get 8th with another lie?
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:48 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Is it possible if Memphis loses out, pels and blazers win out, that pels and blazers play each other for 8th seed?
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:50 am to Large Farva
Yes, that is possible.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:50 am to Large Farva
Definitely. Was excluding Blazers and Spurs because they look to have toughest remaining schedules and should drop a couple more games but if either of them somehow won out then they’d be in the play-in game. It’s a tight race so even with just 5 games left there’s a lot of bball left to be played
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:51 am to EXPLAYER
quote:Certainly not likely but it could happen.
Can we legit get 8th with another lie?
Pels can go 4-1, Memphis can go 1-4.
It's definitely not likely but if you look at remaining schedules, it seems a bit more possible than just looking at 4-1 vs 1-4.
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:58 am to shel311
Big night of action.
Blazers vs. Rockets
Suns vs. Clippers
Kings vs. Mavs
The 3 teams that we are pulling against are all underdogs. The Blazers game is the most important.
Blazers vs. Rockets
Suns vs. Clippers
Kings vs. Mavs
The 3 teams that we are pulling against are all underdogs. The Blazers game is the most important.
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