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re: Simmons: “Top 5 Dumbest Trades of this decade”
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:14 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:14 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That's the logical way to do it.
No it isn't. Just like we said last night, if queen is a legit starter and pels are in the playoffs its not nearly one of the 5 dumbest trades ever.
1
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:18 am to whatiknowsofar
quote:
Just like we said last night, if queen is a legit starter and pels are in the playoffs its not nearly one of the 5 dumbest trades ever.
That just means you got lucky on the right side of variance. That's hindsight bias.
Nobody is arguing there is a 0% chance it works out in our favor.
The potential scenarios where this doesn't work out in our favor highly out-number the potential scenarios where this works out in our favor. That's how you analyze decisions. It's about calculating the EV of the move in real time.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:20 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That's the logical way to do it.
What? The logical way to evaluate a trade is by the results of the trade on the court.
I still hate the trade, but wholeheartedly disagree with this take
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:21 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That just means you got lucky on the right side of variance. That's hindsight bias.
No, it means your evaluation of the trade was right all along. People don’t make trades thinking they’re getting fleeced
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:21 am to PELsu
quote:
Good luck. I can only think of one, and this trade has a chance to surpass that.
quote:
Do it then
quote:
This decade? I doubt it
You guys are overly emotional and too into the moment. For this to even be in the conversation of top five dumbest trades of the decade it would have to do something like that 2011 Clippers pick did where it had the eighth best odds to move up and it moved up to first. Right now the Pelicans have the eighth worst odds to win a title next season, so just using that as an example, lets say the pick lands at #8.
So we traded 2026 #8th, 2025 #23, for 2025 #13 or whatever it was. Is that a dumb trade? Absoultely. Is it one of the top five worst trades of the decade? Absolutely not.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:21 am to SCLSUMuddogs
quote:
What? The logical way to evaluate a trade is by the results of the trade on the court.
If a person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?
This post was edited on 6/26/25 at 8:22 am
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:22 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That just means you got lucky on the right side of variance. That's hindsight bias.
Again, no. You just evaluated properly
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:23 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If a person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?
If you had both fears and Queen as top 5 prospects on your board, you trade up to get one because he’s slipping and they don’t pan out, that’s poor evaluation, not bad luck.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:23 am to SCLSUMuddogs
It’s a bad trade no matter the result because there is no way Atlanta turns this down with minimal protections on the pick. Top four, top two, hell even just top 1 protect it. Then they can have our 2027 or 2028 unprotected if we happen to win the lottery. This was a complete panic and negligent move.
Now if somehow both us and the Bucks make the playoffs? It changes to an ok move, assuming Queen can actually contribute.
Now if somehow both us and the Bucks make the playoffs? It changes to an ok move, assuming Queen can actually contribute.
This post was edited on 6/26/25 at 8:25 am
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:26 am to SCLSUMuddogs
quote:
You just evaluated properly
quote:
that’s poor evaluation
There isn't a lot of data to show that teams are actually good at evaluating players in the way that y'all are describing. This is more of a myth and romance of sports that we're finding out isn't really true in the age of data and analytics.
The way to draft well is to accumulate a ton of draft picks and have them land at the top of drafts with elite talent or just pick so many players that you end up on the right side of variance eventually.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:34 am to SlowFlowPro
Lotto picks are lotto picks because teams have evaluated them and agreed that they’re good players. It’s not a crap shoot. Of course scouting isn’t perfect, but that doesn’t just go for later picks. How are Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons doing these days?
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:38 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That just means you got lucky on the right side of variance. That's hindsight bias.
Nobody is arguing there is a 0% chance it works out in our favor.
The potential scenarios where this doesn't work out in our favor highly out-number the potential scenarios where this works out in our favor. That's how you analyze decisions. It's about calculating the EV of the move in real time.
This is such a terrible take. Of course you judge a trade based on results. Did the trade work out? If yes, it was a great trade. Did you give up too much for a bum? Bad trade!
You know how everyone who "grades" a draft begins with the disclaimer that you can't REALLY grade a draft for a few years...and then they grade the draft anyway? Even those people know that drafts/trades cannot be properly evaluated until it all plays out on the court.
I agree that this morning, this looks like a TERRIBLE trade. It probably is. But if Queen is the next Boogie, then it was a FANTASTIC trade.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:39 am to Fun Bunch
When you play planning for a loto pick you have already lost. Joe is playing an aggressive style and planning on winning.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:43 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
They got Paul George and Kawhi with this trade. It didn't work out, but that's some crazy hindsight bias.
So it's not fair to grade one trade because it's already proven to be a disaster?
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:43 am to SCLSUMuddogs
quote:
How are Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons doing these days?
Fultz had an injury that mind-fricked him and he still became a productive NBA player
Simmons was an all-NBA guy once and a 3-time All Star. It's highly unlikely either guy we picked last night has that kind of career.
quote:
Lotto picks are lotto picks because teams have evaluated them and agreed that they’re good players.
They've "agreed" only that they're top prospects, not players.
And, again, this is irrelevant to the point. The NBA draft is a crapshoot that has certain % of success/value baked into each pick. There is no modern team that has shown an ability to evaluate players ahead of this statistical model. Again, the teams who draft well accumulate picks and either get top picks in top drafts or pick so many players variance says one will become great. Like OKC, Philly back in the day (which is I assume what you were referencing).
Hell, OKC's MVP wasn't even their draft pick. They got him as a hyper-athletic 20-year old rookie who had just put up 14.7/4.5/3.8 per 36 on 55.4% TS%
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:44 am to iwyLSUiwy
quote:
So it's not fair to grade one trade because it's already proven to be a disaster?
How many different variables that occurred AFTER the trade that had no direct relationship to the trade/decision affected the eventual outcome of that trade?
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:45 am to AOC4PREZ2028
quote:
This is such a terrible take. Of course you judge a trade based on results. Did the trade work out? If yes, it was a great trade. Did you give up too much for a bum? Bad trade!
If a person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:46 am to iwyLSUiwy
Why is the KD trade or Beal trade not being mentioned in disasters BTW?
Phoenix went from a finals team to a lottery team while impoverishing its future chasing KD and putting players around him.
Was that a horrible fricking trade or was it a good idea at the time so that’s all cool?
Phoenix went from a finals team to a lottery team while impoverishing its future chasing KD and putting players around him.
Was that a horrible fricking trade or was it a good idea at the time so that’s all cool?
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:48 am to Fun Bunch
Bad take right now. If Queen becomes the next Jokic then who cares what we gave up. We have to see how he turns out.
I do really like both players we drafted as well. Fears has some Ja in his game. Not quite the athlete Morant is. But game is similar.
Queen has promise as well.
I do really like both players we drafted as well. Fears has some Ja in his game. Not quite the athlete Morant is. But game is similar.
Queen has promise as well.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:49 am to teke184
The KD trade was fine, but the Beal trade is probably he worst one of "The decade". Much worse than the Luka trade, IMHO.
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