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Shouldn’t we focus on Zach LaVine?

Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:03 pm
Posted by Jon1798
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
730 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:03 pm
Bulls are 4-7. Markkanen has forgotten how to play and Bulls seem to be floundering. Zach LaVine is in the same contract situation as Beal, with next year being his logical last year under contract.

Big differences being LaVine is only $19.5 million times two. Much easier for us to make a deal work and not slam into the luxury tax line. Beal has a 15% trade kicker on top of $28.75 and $34.5. Bulls also have a ton of other possible matches for us on their roster. LaVine is only 25 years old in comparison to the 27 year old Beal.

Per 36 last year-

Beal:

30.5 points, 5 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 45.5% FG, 35.4 3%, 57.9 TS%

LaVine:

26.4 points, 5 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 45% FG, 38% 3%, 56.8 TS%

Both show defensive capabilities but minimal desire for it. I think LaVine would be a much better under the radar score that might not take everything we possibly own to make happen.

I also think there is “more” of a chance for Lonzo to be willing to give Chicago a try than Washington.

This post was edited on 1/11/21 at 1:05 pm
Posted by BowDownToLSU
Livingston louisiana
Member since Feb 2010
19258 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:06 pm to
I’d love to have either one but I think Beal would be easier. I just don’t see the Bulls giving up Zach
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115841 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:06 pm to
Chicago probably wants to use Lavine in a trade to get a Beal type, not a tank type trade, just from what I've seen.

Yeah I'd like Lavine on this squad though.
Posted by Jon1798
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
730 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:09 pm to
Bulls are not going to bid for Beal with only one year left on his deal. I think it’s very possible they wait until the off-season for a LaVine trade, but if things start to crash for them, it would be in their best interest to move now. 1.5 years is worth a ton more than an expiring, but the Jrue trade could give optimism for them to wait. LaVine doesn’t seem like one to complain his way out.
Posted by LesGeaux45
Member since Nov 2009
9232 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:13 pm to
Pretty sure Beal signed an extension last year and has multiple years remaining.
Posted by Mystictiger
Texas
Member since Jul 2015
2624 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:14 pm to
Markannen hasn’t played because of covid contact tracing.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61504 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:17 pm to
He's a high usage player (as is Beal). If we end up landing the lead guard so many of us feel we need, who gets Loved/Boshed between Lavine/Beal, BI, and Zion?

Do the Pels need a Rondo and a Ray Allen more than a Lavine/Beal type?
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9945 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

Pretty sure Beal signed an extension last year and has multiple years remaining.



His extension only added 1 year and a PO. Beal would only be under control for this year and next. For what it would cost to acquire him and his likely desire to compete for a title, I don't think a small market can gamble on keeping him past next season.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115841 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Pretty sure Beal signed an extension last year and has multiple years remaining.


It was only a two year extension and one was a player option, which he will take.

He's under contract for this year and next year and that is it (assuming he takes the 22-23 Player Option, which he will).
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9945 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

Do the Pels need a Rondo and a Ray Allen more than a Lavine/Beal type?



We need someone who can get to the rim and break down a defense. Until Zion greatly improves his handle and can initiate, we need another shot creator besides BI.
This post was edited on 1/11/21 at 1:21 pm
Posted by Jon1798
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
730 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:25 pm to
I think it’s a fair question ATL, though we are a bit unique. Short answer is everyone probably takes a small step back. But I think Zion is the type of guy to score like AD, without having to feed him the ball. He’s going to produce by being on the court.

Largely, you will see Ingram and LaVine staggered, with LaVine given the green light with the bench unit. Let Ingram and Zion continue to grow as one of the leagues deadliest pick and roll parings, and LaVine increasing leads while they sit and spacing the floor and secondary creator at games’ end.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25556 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:25 pm to
Beal has a player option for 2023. It's $37M but the 2023 season will be his 11th year in the league, so he'd be at that 10 year mark to sign a max contract worth over $220M, and i would think he would want that type of guaranteed maximum contract signed asap. No point in risking a year of play. AD didn't even want to risk a year and wait until his 10th year to sign that 5 year contract. By doing so he gave up about $30M signing that 5 year contract this offseason instead of playing under a 1 year deal and then signing the 5 year max.
Beal signed his extension with the idea that he would be a free agent after that 10 year mark so he could sign a max contract.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25556 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

His extension only added 1 year and a PO. Beal would only be under control for this year and next. For what it would cost to acquire him and his likely desire to compete for a title, I don't think a small market can gamble on keeping him past next season.




well, if he resigns with the team he's on, he can sign a max contract of 5 years worth $221m, or if he leaves to go elsewhere in FA, he'd sign a 4 year worth $164M. The difference is you get 8% raises with your team, 5% raises with another team, which equates to about $7M less over those first 4 years.
I know it's a lot of money, but who wouldn't want to sign a 5 year $221M guaranteed contract?
Posted by Jon1798
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
730 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:37 pm to
I wish it were that simple though. You can feel as confident as you want about him wanting an extra $7 million over four years and extra 5th year, but if he’s not confirming he will extend, the majority of teams will not trade their entire future for him. Us included, though I think we make a solid offer in between and cross our fingers.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30111 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

Do the Pels need a Rondo and a Ray Allen more than a Lavine/Beal type?



Yes, I think we would be better off finding that PG (or grooming) than Beal. But that might be harder to do in this modern day, and depending on the timeline (i.e. how fast are we trying to win? Allow young guys like NAW/Lewis to grow or show potential?)

Beal is HIGHLY attractive, but with that territory, I think it can work.

Beal takes 24.8 shots a game. When he shared the ball with Wall, he was at a very reasonable 17-20 FGA per game. 25-28% USG rate to now 36.9%.

If we're saying Ball is out, we're talking:
12 attempts per game, 20% usage rate going out

I think you're gonna have to consider Bledsoe being on the way out as well, meaning we replace Ball+Bledsoe with Beal + Shooter
Bledsoe's #s: 10 FGA per game, 18% usage rate.
That's 22 attempts and 38% usage between the two of them

I think we could make it work, but that means we're likely gonna have to give up 2 of 3: Hayes, NAW, and Lewis. Assuming its NAW and Hayes, we'd be mighty thin. We'd need to send some 2nds out as well to get some quality back.

PG: Beal/Lewis
SG: Redick/Hart
SF: Ingram/Hart/Backup
PF: Zion/Melli/Gabriel
C: Adams/Hermangomez/Gabriel

Beal comes out first, so he can run the 2nd unit.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25556 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:46 pm to
It's not like we are some scrub team that shouldn't be good.
You think the Magic have the potential to be as good as us if they get Beal? If they had to get rid of Isaacs and Anthony what are they left with? Fultz/Vucevic as the main two on the team?

We can keep BI and Zion and still have the assets to get Beal, and there isn't a better combo to match him with than that. Russell/Towns maybe, but i think most people would choose BI/Zion over them. I think the Bulls would feel confident they could attract another big name in FA to fit with Lavine and Beal in order to keep Beal there.
The Hawks have Trae and that's enough.
I can't see why the Bulls, Wolves, Hawks, or us would be afraid of Beal leaving if we traded for him.
Posted by Jon1798
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
730 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 1:57 pm to
Just because Beal isn’t Lebron or AD doesn’t mean he wants any less. LaVine is going to be a FA at the same time. Do you really think Beal is going to choose to stay with the Bulls, even with LaVine, over living in Miami, or playing with Doncic, or who knows, playing with Ad or Giannis. It only takes one team. Imagine a world (likely IMO) where the Bulls trade all their future first and a couple young players for one year of Beal. Then he and LaVine leave.

We have an upper hand because we can trade other teams’ picks and Zion and Ingram are frankly better and locked up likely at least 5 years. But I’m not putting our entire future on it. Again, we could trade Lonzo, Kira and four firsts while still no matter what having Zion, Ingram and Adam’s plus other firsts in the bank. Minny can’t match that. Bulls can’t match that. Nor will they try. Now singular players like a Ben Simmons, maybe Michael Porter, maybe Herro and Duncan, then it gets difficult to relate to future picks.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
110857 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

Shouldn’t we focus on Zach LaVine?

Big no for me.

He's an empty stat guy, he does not make the teams he plays on any better, and arguably worse.
Posted by Dantheman504
N/A
Member since Jun 2013
3591 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 2:38 pm to
Averaging 28 pts on 20 shots isn't an empty stat. Neither is 50% fg shooting. He has had a 38pt, 39pt, and 45pt game this year already. He and Lavert type players would help this team and actually draw real attention from our other players. Give me any "empty stat guy" putting up 40 pts > wtf JJ and Lonzo are doing for almost 30 mil
Posted by Baron
Member since Dec 2014
1646 posts
Posted on 1/11/21 at 2:42 pm to
I feel like LaVine’s name comes up every few months as a trade target because people just look at his raw stats and think he’s a good player. It’s been discussed ad nauseam here, but it needs to be said again: LaVine is not a winning basketball player, he’s a stat padder on bad teams.

quote:

Both show defensive capabilities but minimal desire for it.


This is only partially true. The reason that people are so intrigued by Beal is because he’s shown flashes in the past of being a pretty good defender, but only seems to do it in crunch moments. I don’t think LaVine has ever shown that ability. Beal has also shown that he might be able to expand into more of a facilitator, which is also very intriguing. He has already shown that doesn’t turn the ball over nearly as often as LaVine while producing nearly the same assist numbers. The advanced stats seem to back Both of those observations up too:

Beal has career a DRtg of 111, but that has been weighed down by the last couple seasons when the Wizards really fell off the map. Before that, he averaged a 107 his first 6 years in the league. He has 14.7 career DWS, and averaged over 2 DWS a season in the first 6 years. Now he does average -0.8 DBPM a year, but at least has posted a couple positive scores in a couple of seasons. Finally, Beal has a career ast% of 19.3 and a career tov% of 10.8. What’s more interesting is in the last few seasons, his Ast% has gone way up with an average of 24.8% the last 3 seasons, but his tov% has roughly stayed the same at 11%.

Now compare that to LaVine who has a career DRtg of 113, but has never posted a DRtg better than 110. Has a career 5 DWS, has never posted a positive DBPM, with an average -1.6. Further, LaVine’s career ast% of 20, but has a 13.8 tov%.

If you really want to know who’s better, consider that LaVine has a career VORP of 4. In 2018-2019, Beal posted a VORP of 3.7.

With all of that said, no one should want LaVine on this team, you just can’t win with him. Now if you are arguing that you believe that Beal is also not someone you can win with, you could be right, and this thread is much more interesting. But at the end of the day, Beal has shown that he is much more likely to be able to be the 2nd/3rd best player on a championship team than LaVine.
This post was edited on 1/11/21 at 2:45 pm
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