re: Pels trade to 13

One of those trades that’s so bad it’s really indefensible. Anyone saying they like this trade knows little to nothing about the NBA, just a fact.

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It's not about KNOWING. It's about making the best decision for the highest EV and that is judged in real time.

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Fair. You judge in real time… but %’s versus what ultimately plays out with results will be definitive. I hope you are incorrect in your assessment vs. results

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In poker, going all-in for 5x pot on the turn when you have a 2-outer can work if that 5% hits on the river, but does that make it a good decision in hindsight if you find yourself on the good side of that variance? Or was it always a bad decision with a small chance of working out (without the expected value to justify the risk)?

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I agree that this is a bad trade, but this is a really poor way to explain why.

It’s more simple than that, and almost the opposite of the way you framed it. They acquired a relative known in exchange for a statistically more valuable unknown (next year’s pick / the river). They sacrificed reward to hedge risk.

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It's not about KNOWING. It's about making the best decision for the highest EV and that is judged in real time.

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But we KNOW what they got right now. We don’t truly know what they gave up outside of the statistical probability that it ends up being more valuable than what they got.

You should study up on statistics, risk, and probabilities before acting like you understand them.

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One of those trades that’s so bad it’s really indefensible. Anyone saying they like this trade knows little to nothing about the NBA, just a fact.

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Yep, it has nothing to do with Queen at all. If you like this trade then your opinion about the NBA is invalid because I know you’re a dumbass. It’s about value and the value on this trade is awful, even if Queen becomes the next Jokic

Apologies for changing the subject and talking about the guy that we drafted, but I'm going to do it anyway.

I don't follow college basketball, so I didn't know shite about Queen until earlier tonight. But watching some highlights, he's going to be a lot of fun to watch. Whenever he gets a defensive rebound, he reminds me a lot of a (much) less athletic Blake Griffin. Both are elite fast-break facilitators that can give your team a sneaky basket per game with a great half/full court pass. If the post-rebound pass isn''t available, both are willing to play point forward with a fast pace. They have nearly identical measurements. But watching Queen's highlights, the athleticism difference between the two is apparent. It's kind of shocking how effective Queen is attacking the basket given how lumbering he is. He gets praise for top tier footwork and decision making, and that looks to be what makes him so effective. Hopefully that translates to the pros. With the lack of athleticism, he definitely needs to work on a jumpshot to keep defenders honest.

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It’s about value and the value on this trade is awful, even if Queen becomes the next Jokic

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so you telling me, if Queen becomes a great player, and the player that Atlanta gets next year doesn't pan out, you'd still hate this trade b/c of YOUR perceived value of the pick we just traded?

seems like so many of y'all are more worried about the perception of looking like we are so saavy and trying to outsmart everyone and trying to be like OKC with stockpiling picks/assets, that when we actually utilize some of the assets we have acquired, you are automatically pissed/unhappy with whatever it is we've just done b/c we've spent some of the capital we've acquired...

at some point, we can't just hold on to all the picks and not actually pick people, or use those picks to trade up to grab someone we feel is worth it, regardless of what the hypothetical, perceived value of the commodity we are giving up is....

we got better tonight... and y'all worried about this next year's draft pick we traded away in order to do that, when realistically, no one knows how good these guys we just got may end up being....

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He's like Sengun.

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Seems like a fair comp for Queen.

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We did this last year. Ended up costing us the 21 year old runner up DPOY and three first round picks for Murray and the ability to move up ten spots in the draft…...

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ok, but now you are conflating Griffin's decisions with Dumars'.... pick a lane... they are two different GMs with different philosophies and approaches....

you can't saddle Dumars with Griff's decisions, to try to tip the scales in favor of your opinion of the current state of the team....