re: Pels trade to 13

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Man reading reports on Queen and it makes the trade even more terrible. Undersized, unathletic big who tires on D and sucks. Could be an offensive 4 who puts up stats on a bad team, but we have Zion.

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Add in that their top ten pick also has major question marks and this is the 2019 draft bad again waiting to happen with trading number 4 and getting high ceiling, but highly likely to bust players.

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Man reading reports on Queen and it makes the trade even more terrible. Undersized, unathletic big who tires on D and sucks.

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You’re being disingenuous. The draft is a total crapshoot. His “high end” player comp is Sengun.

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Queen brings a lot to the table offensively, with the face-up skills and passing ability to play all over the floor and facilitate good offense. The success of players such as Sengun, who fell into the teens on draft night in 2021 and was viewed as an unorthodox prospect, helps lay the groundwork for Queen's potential. He needs to become a more aggressive rebounder and engaged defender -- two things that would be aided by improving his frame and conditioning. He also needs to develop a more reliable 3-point shot.

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Okay and we are guaranteed top 4 next year how?

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Because we’re the fricking pelicans

-one of the worst records in the NBA, end up drafting 7th while our division rivals get the 2 best players in the draft far and away
- gave the pacers back their 1st rounder and days later their franchise player gets a devastating injury early on in game 7 of the finals

So I think it’s ok to safely assume this move won’t work out for us and we end up giving up a top 3 pick for Queen

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So I think it’s ok to safely assume this move won’t work out for us and we end up giving up a top 3 pick for Queen

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Again? You do not know that. Just looking for a reason to bitch and fuss and “fire everyone” god you folks love to be miserable

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So I think it’s ok to safely assume this move won’t work out for us and we end up giving up a top 3 pick for Queen

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We have had a top 3 pick 3 times in the history of our franchise

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No, especially in the NBA. This is how teams and decision makers delude themselves. Volume of chances and luck are how you get elite talent, which heavily skews to the top 3-5.

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SGA was picked #11
Jokic was a second rounder
Giannis was #15
Brunson was a second rounder
Kawhi was #15
Booker was #13
Donovan Mitchell #13
Steph, Dame, etc. did not go in the Top 5

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SGA was picked #11
Jokic was a second rounder
Giannis was #15
Brunson was a second rounder
Kawhi was #15
Booker was #13
Donovan Mitchell #13
Steph, Dame, etc. did not go in the Top 5

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LINK

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Goal: Use draft data since 1989 to identify the likelihood of drafting an All Star, All NBA Player, or MVP in a given draft, and at each draft spot.

Why: To understand the likelihood of drafting a top 40 player and to temper expectations for teams hoping to draft a future All Star.

Assumptions: If a player makes an All Star team, it means that, at one point in their career, they were likely a top 40 player (based on fan voting variance and injuries). An All NBA bid means that, at worst, a player is a top 25 player at some point in their career (same injury assumption). An MVP means that player was, at the very least, a top 5 player at some point in their career. Feel free to personally adjust these assumptions how you feel they should be treated.

Results:

All Stars: Between 1989 and 2017, each draft produced about 6 players who made an All Star team. Given their age in the league, I would expect the last 5 drafts to produce similar numbers.

Some notable All Star Stats by draft position: 69% of number one picks have become All Stars, followed by 41% at 2, 59% at 3, 41% at 4, and 38% at 5.

From 6-13, the odds of picking an All Star are basically flat at 16%, with notable outliers at 9-11 with 25%, 22%, and 19% respectively. On the negative side, there has only been one pick at 8 (or 3%) that has become an All Star.

Odds from 14-24 are again virtually flat at 9%. Notable outliers here are 5 All Stars (16%) at 17, and 0 All Stars at 23, the only spot in the first round without an All Star.

25-40 all have virtually equal odds of an All Star, at 3%, with a notable outlier of 3 all stars (9%) at 35.

Lastly, 41 through 60 have about a 1.5% chance of an All Star, and 3 players over the last 35 years made an All Star game after going undrafted.

All NBA Teams: Between 1989 and 2018, an average of 3.5 players per draft made an All NBA team. It’s worth noting that about 2 of these players from each draft have made at least 3 All NBA teams, so they can be considered as consensus top 15 players for multiple years in their career.

All NBA by draft position: Spots 1-5 dominate All NBA teams, with 53% of number one picks make and All NBA team, 28% of #2’s, 44% of 3’s, 22% of 4’s, and 28# of 5’s.

Spots 6-15 are basically flat at about 8%, with notable outliers at 9 (19%), 10 (16%), and 12 (no All NBA players ever, although Haliburton may change that soon).

16-30 are basically flat with 13 total All NBA players across those 15 draft slots since 1989.

Finally, there have been 10 second round picks who have made an All NBA team, basically exactly evenly spaced out through the second round. Shout out pick 35 for owning 3 of those picks. 1 undrafted player (Ben Wallace) made an All NBA team as well.

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So wait . . . I can’t even root for the tank next year?

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No. Both us and MIL need to be good next year

Interesting.

4 of the top 5 MVP vote getters this year were drafted outside of the top 10.

Do a new study on that.

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Wasting your time. They know all the best players have to be top 3 AND Pels are guaranteed to have top 3 pick next year. How? Dunno but they do

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You dint get it, it was poor value and we just gave away another first.

Out treasure chest along with DD just disappeared for Murray and Queen.

We had two firsts next year and now after two horrible trades we have zero.