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Posted on 7/10/18 at 12:11 pm to VOR
Guys drafted between 51-60 have less than a 2% chance of becoming a rotation player, according to historical data over the last twelve years. If I am right, this should be the expected outcome.
I am not disappointed. I would be disappointed if they waste a two-way on him, instead of trying to identify someone else
I am not disappointed. I would be disappointed if they waste a two-way on him, instead of trying to identify someone else
Posted on 7/10/18 at 12:24 pm to Crewz
Barry Jackson @flasportsbuzz
1 minute ago
Heat has agreed to a one-year two-way deal with Duncan Robinson, league source confirms.
1 minute ago
Heat has agreed to a one-year two-way deal with Duncan Robinson, league source confirms.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 12:29 pm to Crewz
quote:
He has no NBA skills. If he was out of control and just young, sure develop him. But he isn't out of control or low IQ or just in need of some good coaching. He won't ever be an NBA player. Its clear watching him. He can't turn the corner off the dribble, has no vision for a guard and isn't a great shooter either. He simply won't be an NBA player. I'd rather find a raw guy from one of the other 29 teams who might have a chance. Carr has none.
Why couldn't the pels front office see this beforehand and not need 4 Summer league games to find out. its a shitty draft selection if this is such the case.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 12:39 pm to Chad504boy
98% of picks after 50 are worthless. People come in with too much of a NFL draft mentality.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 12:45 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
98% of picks after 50 are worthless. People come in with too much of a NFL draft mentality.
No i get that Bunch. You got to find a talent that has something redeeming or a skill set you think could fit into your roster possibly or develop.
Pels made a conscious decision to draft Carr over this Bluiett kid as an example.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 12:57 pm to Chad504boy
You don't get to see these guys play against "NBA caliber" talent before you draft them. What I mean by that is that every guy in Summer League is close to being an NBA player or at least a professional foreign player, for the most part. The sophomore on Temple who Tony Carr burns is a future banker. Any starter in summer league is way better than that guy. Once you see Tony Carr on the court with 9 other guys all quasi-NBA level, you see that he doesn't stand out in any way. Harder to see that when he is on the court with 3 scrubs on Penn State + 1 decent guy and the same thing on the opposing team.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 12:57 pm to Chad504boy
I'm surprised we didn't pick Trevon Duval.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 1:30 pm to Crewz
quote:
You don't get to see these guys play against "NBA caliber" talent before you draft them. What I mean by that is that every guy in Summer League is close to being an NBA player or at least a professional foreign player, for the most part. The sophomore on Temple who Tony Carr burns is a future banker. Any starter in summer league is way better than that guy. Once you see Tony Carr on the court with 9 other guys all quasi-NBA level, you see that he doesn't stand out in any way. Harder to see that when he is on the court with 3 scrubs on Penn State + 1 decent guy and the same thing on the opposing team.
sounds like a fancy bs excuse. its their job to see through that. every league does it. some are better and get rewarded. some are worse and it hurts the franchise.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 1:39 pm to Chad504boy
Based on your logic, every GM stinks. Because every GM with a pick in the 50s has failed over the last 10-12 years with rare exceptions like IT3.
Go ahead, look at picks in the 50s the last 10-12 years. You won't even find 9th or 10th men. Does every GM stink or is it more likely that after the first 40 or so guys in a draft, the talent is pretty minimal?
Pick a draft, any draft, and go look at picks 50 or later.
Go ahead, look at picks in the 50s the last 10-12 years. You won't even find 9th or 10th men. Does every GM stink or is it more likely that after the first 40 or so guys in a draft, the talent is pretty minimal?
Pick a draft, any draft, and go look at picks 50 or later.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 1:43 pm to Crewz
its not that you never fail, its that you never hit on anything.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 1:49 pm to Chad504boy
If they "Hit" on Bluiett, will that count?
Is Darius Miller a hit? Was BDJ on his way to becoming one?
Are you really going to make the argument that Dell does not hit on 'around the edges, low cost' moves? Because that would be the thing most would say he does best.
Has he ever plucked a Draymond Green out of the 2nd round? No, but neither have 28 other GM's currently employed.
There are plenty of things to bash Dell about. Picking Carr at 51 as opposed to some other guy who would have failed to is not one of those things
Is Darius Miller a hit? Was BDJ on his way to becoming one?
Are you really going to make the argument that Dell does not hit on 'around the edges, low cost' moves? Because that would be the thing most would say he does best.
Has he ever plucked a Draymond Green out of the 2nd round? No, but neither have 28 other GM's currently employed.
There are plenty of things to bash Dell about. Picking Carr at 51 as opposed to some other guy who would have failed to is not one of those things
Posted on 7/10/18 at 1:52 pm to Crewz
Last 10 years, here are the guys you've heard of picked 45 or beyond, b/c the rest did nothing. 150 players and these are the ones that have made teams.
Looks like a higher rate than 2%
IT3
Etwaun Moore
Deandre Liggins
James Ennis
Kyle OQuinn
Patty Mills
Danny Green
Dwight Powell
Jordan Clarkson
Norman Powell
maybe Sindarius Thornwell
Goran Dragic
And if you count the 3 years before that, you'll find Marc Gasol, Milsaps and Gortat in successive years.
Looks like a higher rate than 2%
IT3
Etwaun Moore
Deandre Liggins
James Ennis
Kyle OQuinn
Patty Mills
Danny Green
Dwight Powell
Jordan Clarkson
Norman Powell
maybe Sindarius Thornwell
Goran Dragic
And if you count the 3 years before that, you'll find Marc Gasol, Milsaps and Gortat in successive years.
This post was edited on 7/10/18 at 2:06 pm
Posted on 7/10/18 at 1:52 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
sounds like a fancy bs excuse. its their job to see through that. every league does it. some are better and get rewarded. some are worse and it hurts the franchise.
At that point in the draft it is extremely unlikely to get a useful player for a playoff team. Either they don't have the athleticism to play in the NBA or don't have the IQ or they just are not ready to contribute in any way. No one purchased a late 2nd this year which is a clear indicator that there was not much talent left. And even if you can identify the needle in the haystack that late int he draft, it is often difficult to keep them rostered while they develop.
One of the more recent successful 50+ draftees is on the Pels in Etwaun Moore, but even though the Celtics (one of the best organizations at evaluating the draft) identified him as a player after his first year they traded him to the Rockets who then waived him. He ended up signing with the Magic and got minutes on a BAD team who then did not tender him a QO allowing him to sign with the Bulls. His first year with the bulls he played 9 mpg before injuries the next year let him provided him a larger role which paved the way for the Pels contract.
This post was edited on 7/10/18 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 7/10/18 at 2:01 pm to Crewz
quote:
If they "Hit" on Bluiett, will that count?
it'd be a good move but doesn't resolve the poor drafting issues we've seen.
Posted on 7/10/18 at 2:12 pm to Chad504boy
Diallo still projects as a better career than you would expect from a 2nd rounder and we don't know about Frank Jackson yet. Very possible that both guys are better than expected for 2nd round picks.
The issue is the lack of picks he has had makes it seem like he is a bad drafter because you can't count up a bunch of hits. But based on pure percentages, I would bet he ranks in the top 14 with regard to drafting success, relative to the picks he has had
The issue is the lack of picks he has had makes it seem like he is a bad drafter because you can't count up a bunch of hits. But based on pure percentages, I would bet he ranks in the top 14 with regard to drafting success, relative to the picks he has had
Posted on 7/10/18 at 2:37 pm to Crewz
quote:
Barry Jackson @flasportsbuzz 1 minute ago Heat has agreed to a one-year two-way deal with Duncan Robinson, league source confirms.
Posted on 7/12/18 at 3:28 pm to NOFOX
My take so far on today’s game:
Cliff Alexander should never be invited to play in another summer league game again. Dude is garbage.
Cliff Alexander should never be invited to play in another summer league game again. Dude is garbage.
This post was edited on 7/12/18 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 7/12/18 at 3:31 pm to DatPelican
Chieck just isn't that good. I love his energy, but i just don't see him getting better. I do'nt care how young or raw he is, it's been long enough.
Posted on 7/12/18 at 3:39 pm to TeddyPadillac
DJ Hogg looking nice on both sides the ball.
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