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re: Offseason Trade Possibility
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:48 pm to TeddyPadillac
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:48 pm to TeddyPadillac
Let's refocus this thread back on topic. I know you are against giving Asik long term money comparative to the other centers you listed, but let's not waste too much time fawning over pieces we don't have or can't get. So who do you think we should get if not Asik? FTR, I'm not sure retaining Asik is the best move either and sorry if I missed your explaination in a previous post.
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Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:49 pm to TheJruth
quote:
Side not, ppl are also insane to think Tyson Chandler would not be a massive upgrade on this team.
No one said Chandler isn't better.
Rather that it's silly to dump Asik and Gordon\whomever for the mere chance to sign Chandler. People are worried about over paying Asik. Well Chandler will cost more, will be 33 on opening night, and has 20k more NBA minutes than Asik. He missed ~50 games his last 2 years in NY. With this team's injury mojo, spending big $$ to get an aging big seems like an unsound investment.
Besides, I'm not convinced they need a dominant 5 in order to win in May/June. They need wing help more than a 5.
Posted on 5/6/15 at 8:42 am to corndeaux
quote:
Besides, I'm not convinced they need a dominant 5 in order to win in May/June. They need wing help more than a 5.
Frankly, it probably makes sense to bring in two "decent" big bodies with specific skill sets to add to Ajinca than dump astronomical money on one guy. I agree we need to focus money on the wing if someone is available.
Posted on 5/6/15 at 9:17 am to VOR
quote:
Frankly, it probably makes sense to bring in two "decent" big bodies with specific skill sets to add to Ajinca than dump astronomical money on one guy. I agree we need to focus money on the wing if someone is available.
Thank you.
My main gripe with Asik is that he's not someone who will take us over the top, and paying someone that much money to fart around on the bench in 4th quarters is just dumb. If you're goign to pay a 5 $13+, then he better have more of an offensive threat than Asik's bumbling arse.
Just b/c we don't get anyone new this year to play the wing, doesn't mean we just sign Asik for the hell of it.
If we do nothing, and Asik isn't signed for long term, we will have over 40 million to spend next summer while still having Jrue, Reke, AD and Qpon. Yeah other teams will have money too, but we've got AD and you've got to think we can attract a good player or two to come play with him.
I still have no objection to signing him for 1 year to whatever he wants. but i doubt he wants a 1 year deal.
This team has to think past the current year. We don't need to win a championship next year. Hell we could win more than 45 games and still not make the playoffs. Really up to Portland and Dallas, and i think Dallas will be around a 50 win team regardless. Portland might be the team to be closer to .500 next year.
What we desperately need is a drafted player that turns into a key contributor, making next to nothing. But you have to have draft picks for that to happen.
The theme of this teams front office needs to be patience. Don't rush into contracts with players you're settling for. Have patience, see the big picture. We've got AD for at least 6 more years. We need to be championship quality by year 3 of this extension.
Posted on 5/6/15 at 9:33 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
if you think Brook Lopez is even remotely as good on defense as Asik, there is no point explaining how you are wrong. You think it because you think it.
You just want to assume he's better, no explanation needed?
Does he move his feet better than Lopez? both suck
Does he jump higher? no
is he smarter? i don't know
Is he a better one on one defender of the 5? sometimes, although he didn't stop Bogut once in the playoffs, and even Ryno played better on ball defense on Bogut
Is he a better pick and roll defender? no, neither are good at that. too big and slow
is he a better shot blocker? not even close
is he a better rebounder? yes
is he a better offensive rebounder? no
so how is Asik the much better center than Lopez?
To top all of that off, Lopez is 10 times better on offense than Asik. and i dont think it's an exaggeration to literally say 10xs better.
Have you played basketball before? I'm assuming you watched a good bit of Pelicans games this year, right?
WHat do you see from Asik on the defensive side that makes him better than any of the 14 people i listed?
Posted on 5/6/15 at 9:37 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
My main gripe with Asik is that he's not someone who will take us over the top, and paying someone that much money to fart around on the bench in 4th quarters is just dumb. If you're goign to pay a 5 $13+, then he better have more of an offensive threat than Asik's bumbling arse.
Unfortunately there aren't many of those types of centers on the market this year, next year is a better year for that.
quote:
If we do nothing, and Asik isn't signed for long term, we will have over 40 million to spend next summer while still having Jrue, Reke, AD and Qpon.
Asik has to be resigned or replaced for at least 1 year, there really is no getting around it. Monty and Demps aren't going to miss the playoffs and get fired to create a better cap situation for the guys that replace them.
quote:
What we desperately need is a drafted player that turns into a key contributor, making next to nothing. But you have to have draft picks for that to happen.
A pick in the mid teens is usually a good place to get the kind of utility big we're talking about, but those guys typically take a few years to become useful. Long term would a 2015 pick spent on a big have been better than Asik? Probably, but that kind of move isn't compatible with the Young Veterans build.
I also think there's a fair chance we trade our 2016 pick. Let's say Portland loses Aldridge and decides to blow it up. Do you wait for Batum to be a FA in the offseason, possibly getting traded to his new forever home before you can even give him a sales pitch, or do you trade Gordon or Ryno + pick for Batum this season?
Posted on 5/6/15 at 9:54 am to VOR
quote:
Frankly, it probably makes sense to bring in two "decent" big bodies with specific skill sets to add to Ajinca than dump astronomical money on one guy.
I'm not sold on Ajinca as being a guy to keep, but I agree in general. To me, the key guy, if he regains his pre injury form, is Anderson. I truly think, in the playoffs, we will see Davis as the lone true big much of the time.
A couple of problems w/ just letting Asik walk:
If they let Asik go, there is very little cap space to sign a competent replacement or two. You're counting on a Withey type being a dependable big. That's not a good bet.
I don't know if Asik will get astronomical money. I think $10-$12 is where he'll sit. I've been pessimistic about his $$ for a while, but I'm thinking it will be closer to $10 than $12/$13 now. Page Fear due to sunny disposition.
They also might be able to do a 2 year deal w/ a player option for next year's bonanza. That might be a good compromise for both player and team.
Posted on 5/6/15 at 10:02 am to corndeaux
quote:
I'm not sold on Ajinca as being a guy to keep
Ajinca is Aaron Gray 2.0. If someone throws $4-$5 million at him, you pat him on the back and say "good for you". But $3ish and under you're happy to keep him. One potential factor in all of this is what Asik gets. I think a 1 year overpay should be a real consideration, but if you're paying Asik $13-$14 you may not have enough money to keep Ajinca even at $3 million as you'll be getting close to the tax line without even signing an MLE guy.
Posted on 5/6/15 at 10:04 am to corndeaux
quote:
I'm not convinced they need a dominant 5 in order to win in May/June. They need wing help more than a 5
I agree. If you look at the teams left in the playoffs though, each has a pretty solid option at the 5 (Noah, Bogut, Gortat, Horford, Jordan, Howard, Gasol, Mozgov.)
Your 5 does not need to be dominant in all aspects of the game. But out of defending the paint, rebounding, and scoring, it seems that they have some combination of good in two of the categories and above average in one.
So we have two questions. Can Asik fit this standard,and if not, where do we find someone who does?
You really need to keep in mind, we need someone who can bang down low with other bigs and save AD from doing the dirty work. That was a big emphasis last off season and a big reason why we grabbed Asik. Having that kind of Big facilitates AD's growth and helps keep AD fresh in the games (efficient fourth quarters). I think Demps and Monty both believe this which limits our options at the 5 (e.g. Brandan Wright types will probably not be an option). This is why I don't see us letting Asik just walk and going back to a stop-gap/fill in center, even for just one year.
Maybe this year is an outlier and all this is moot. Looking at the teams still in and the projected top picks in the next draft, I would say that having a top 5 is starting to trend up.
This post was edited on 5/6/15 at 10:21 am
Posted on 5/6/15 at 10:11 am to TeddyPadillac
Asik a great/good defender. You just refuse to see that because of confirmation bias. It also certainly doesn't help his case that our guards allow penetration and causes rotations constantly, and our rotations were just as bad as our perimeter D.
You are using stupid things to define if someone is "better" like vertical jump. Also, Asik is a better offensive rebounder (and finished 7th in total rebounds in the league) Another thing is shots blocked doesn't mean someone is a good defender. AD is the league leader in blocks, but he still has a ways to go before becoming an elite defender.
The thing with Asik is he is the most obtainable center that fits our needs. That's why he is important, even if we were to clear cap space for another center he might not sign with us and you don't take that risk. If you strike out in FA you resort to the 2013-2014 shite show we rolled out at center.
You are using stupid things to define if someone is "better" like vertical jump. Also, Asik is a better offensive rebounder (and finished 7th in total rebounds in the league) Another thing is shots blocked doesn't mean someone is a good defender. AD is the league leader in blocks, but he still has a ways to go before becoming an elite defender.
The thing with Asik is he is the most obtainable center that fits our needs. That's why he is important, even if we were to clear cap space for another center he might not sign with us and you don't take that risk. If you strike out in FA you resort to the 2013-2014 shite show we rolled out at center.
This post was edited on 5/6/15 at 10:13 am
Posted on 5/6/15 at 10:21 am to Swank
quote:
Asik a great/good defender.
That's what people say, and he played GREAT defense...AT TIMES. Other times he wasn't much help on either end. He was very inconsistent this year.
Posted on 5/6/15 at 10:28 am to Swank
I also think what gets lost in focusing Asik's fumbling of the ball is his ability to set screens. He is the best screen setter on the team by far, which is part of the reason our offensive efficiency is still pretty good with him on the court. It is also important aspect for our offense because AD is not a great screen setter yet.
Asik's game really is a great compliment to AD's. It's frustrating to not see this translate to the court as well as it should. Maybe an extra year of playing together would really help? Or, and I don't want to turn this into a Monty thread, it's more of a scheme issue?
Asik's game really is a great compliment to AD's. It's frustrating to not see this translate to the court as well as it should. Maybe an extra year of playing together would really help? Or, and I don't want to turn this into a Monty thread, it's more of a scheme issue?
Posted on 5/6/15 at 10:40 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
That's what people say, and he played GREAT defense...AT TIMES
Last year I made a post comparing Asik to our centers and the other guys who were on our radar using Synergy's camera based stats.
quote:
Points per Possesion and rank covering the Roll Man in a P&R.
Varejao .74 #15
Asik .66 #23
Ajinca .73 (not enough attempts to rank)
AD .79 #27
Smith .8 #32
Hawes (Philly) .82 #39
Lopez .92 #65
Stiemsma .95 #77
Withey .95 (not enough attempts to rank)
Koufos 1.03 #98
Gortat 1.03 #98
And defending Post Ups
Koufos .59 #11
Asik .75 #16
Withey .69 #33
Ajinca .79 #79
Gortat .81 #102
AD .81 #102
Hawes (Philly) .84 #120
Stiemsma .86 #138
Lopez .91 #178
Varejao .98 #219
Smith 1 #225
If these numbers are legit it says Asik is the only guy that defends both the post and P&R well.
I'd be interested to see how the numbers compare for this year. Does anyone have a link for accessing free Synergy or did they get rid of that? I have a feeling his performance is down, and the question is why? Injury, Scheme, Teammates?
Posted on 5/6/15 at 12:00 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
Other times he wasn't much help on either end.
On the other hand, he's demonstrated his ability to score points on the defensive end . . .
j/k bad luck
Posted on 5/6/15 at 12:26 pm to TeddyPadillac
Brook Lopez's BEST defensive rating is equal to Asik's WORST defensive rating.
(Stats aren't particularly great at measuring defense, but if you want proof spread over their entire careers, there you go.)
(Stats aren't particularly great at measuring defense, but if you want proof spread over their entire careers, there you go.)
Posted on 5/7/15 at 7:22 am to Swank
quote:
Asik a great/good defender.
we saw great a handful of times this year. I've never said he wasn't a good defender.
I also agree that individual defense is only as good as the scheme and help from your team.
J
quote:
You are using stupid things to define if someone is "better" like vertical jump.
I used 7 stupid things.
Would anyone care to point out specifics that Asik does on defense that makes him great? I've asked this three times already.
I think he is one of the best defenders on the league against slow paced teams with big slow centers that stay on the post, like Memphis, Chicago, and Indiana. He's great at guarding the likes of Duncan, Jefferson, Howard, bogut(although he looked terrible when it mattered most).
He moves his feet well against big guys, anticipates well, and stays on his feet(b/c he can't jump).
He usually great at blocking his big guy out. But loses rebounds b/c his teammates don't block out and smaller guys come out jump him while he s blocking out.
quote:
If you strike out in FA you resort to the 2013-2014 shite show we rolled out at center.
at this point we could have steamer at center or Asik and our win total wouldn't be that different. we play without asking our center to do anything. The only positive he brings On offense is we get wide open jumpers b/c Asiks man is never near him during picks B/c hes too busy clogging the lane.
Steamer may be an exaggeration, but we can find two minimum guys that give effort that can provide mostly what Asik does.
AD will always be the 5 down the stretch, unless we are playing Memphis.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 8:29 am to TeddyPadillac
I'm sorry but I'm starting to think you are being argumentative just for the sake of it. Like I said before, it's easier to say "Asik isn't the answer" than it is to say "(specific player) is the answer." We need someone to do all the dirty work to protect AD. This way we can help keep AD healthy and also have the ability to let AD be the 5 in crunch time and still be fresh and efficient.
You absolutely cannot find two minimum players that do Asik's job just as well. The kind of bigs you get for minimums are guys like Aaron Gray, Hilton Armstrong, Melvin Ely, Ryan Hollins, Bernard James, and Steamer.
You just said that Asik is only good at guarding guys like Jordan, Howard, Gasol, bogut? So he is at his best guarding the best Centers in the league. That seems pretty valuable. Any combination of minimum players cannot do this.
If you want to debate whether we should give Asik long term money, that's reasonable. Making broad, generalized statements only lowers the quality and content of this board.
I'm not sure giving Asik 12+ mill for the next 3-4 years is a good idea either. I'm warming up to the idea of trying to sign Chandler as a two year stop-gap and keep our future flexibility, but that would require finding someone to take Anderson or Gordon for peanuts to clear room. I kind of like a Hibbert for Gordon swap and letting Asik walk. I'm not sure if that really makes the team better though and I doubt Indiana would take it. It would probably have to be Gordon and Anderson +pick for Hibbert and Hill, and I really don't like the idea of giving up our best two shooters. But know that there is a reason we got Asik in the first place. The days of rolling out guys like Steamer at the 5 are over.
You absolutely cannot find two minimum players that do Asik's job just as well. The kind of bigs you get for minimums are guys like Aaron Gray, Hilton Armstrong, Melvin Ely, Ryan Hollins, Bernard James, and Steamer.
You just said that Asik is only good at guarding guys like Jordan, Howard, Gasol, bogut? So he is at his best guarding the best Centers in the league. That seems pretty valuable. Any combination of minimum players cannot do this.
If you want to debate whether we should give Asik long term money, that's reasonable. Making broad, generalized statements only lowers the quality and content of this board.
I'm not sure giving Asik 12+ mill for the next 3-4 years is a good idea either. I'm warming up to the idea of trying to sign Chandler as a two year stop-gap and keep our future flexibility, but that would require finding someone to take Anderson or Gordon for peanuts to clear room. I kind of like a Hibbert for Gordon swap and letting Asik walk. I'm not sure if that really makes the team better though and I doubt Indiana would take it. It would probably have to be Gordon and Anderson +pick for Hibbert and Hill, and I really don't like the idea of giving up our best two shooters. But know that there is a reason we got Asik in the first place. The days of rolling out guys like Steamer at the 5 are over.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 8:54 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
Would anyone care to point out specifics that Asik does on defense that makes him great? I've asked this three times already.
God damn, son. Get over yourself. He is great at post positioning and moves his feet extremely well. There were numerous times this year where he got isolated against elite guards at the nail in the pick and roll and he shut them down because of his lateral quickness and understanding of positioning and lanes.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 8:55 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
at this point we could have steamer at center or Asik and our win total wouldn't be that different
quote:
Steamer may be an exaggeration, but we can find two minimum guys that give effort that can provide mostly what Asik does.
Steamer is a HUGE exaggeration and no, you cannot find minimum guys that do half of what Asik does.
This post was edited on 5/7/15 at 8:57 am
Posted on 5/7/15 at 9:05 am to Baron
Since this has basically become an Asik referendum thread, TBW put out a good article yesterday focusing on his impact on the team.
First, and article looking at the defensive improvement dividing the season in half:
Then looking at the last 3rd of the season:
LINK
Stiemsma would have given us more or less the same result.
First, and article looking at the defensive improvement dividing the season in half:
quote:
The second half, despite injuries, was much better. 25-16 including a dramatic win in game 82 to clinch a berth in the post season. The offense was more or less the same; it was on defense where significant gains were found.
[fancy chart that's not an image so I can't post it]
Shaving off 2.9 points per 100 possessions is significant. The biggest reason for such a dramatic improvement was Omer Asik. In the first half of the season the Pelicans had a 105.5 DRtg with Asik on the court. In the second half that number plunged to 101.2, best among rotation players in the second half of the year. Asik's On/Off split went from -5.8 to +4.5. Only Anthony Davis (+12.0, which is ridiculous) posted a better On/Off split in the second half of the season. The next best Pelican was Tyreke Evans at +3.7. Meanwhile fan favorite Alexis Ajinca posted a disappointing -2.3 in the second half.
Then looking at the last 3rd of the season:
quote:
Again the improvement here is in large part to defense, and can be tied directly to Omer Asik's presence on the court. No other player drove the defensive rating down more than Asik; his personal rating of 100.9 far outpaced even Anthony Davis at 102.6.
LINK
Stiemsma would have given us more or less the same result.
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