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justin verrier, pelicans "best case/worst case"
Posted on 10/5/18 at 12:30 pm
Posted on 10/5/18 at 12:30 pm
LINK
recall that verrier was the pelicans beat writer at espn before he moved to the ringer
basically...worst case is that rhe season's results disappoint AD and he starts the path to his exit
you can choose to agree with that or not, but we've all seen this movie before (a star gets frustrated and wants to leave) and it really does seem like this year its make or break
recall that verrier was the pelicans beat writer at espn before he moved to the ringer
quote:
Best-Case Scenario: Things finally go as planned, and the Pelicans take a leap four years in the making.
quote:
They still don’t have a prototypical 3 they can count on, but otherwise, the roster just makes sense. The downside is that after trying their hands at being chaos agents, the Pelicans now look more like the teams they’ll try to leapfrog in the West. The dream of upending the Warriors’ stranglehold with their two skilled Godzillas died when Cousins crumpled to the floor last January. But maximizing two of the best 30 players in basketball isn’t a bad fallback plan.
quote:
Worst-Case Scenario: Things go awry again, and the Pelicans finally feel the repercussions of their continually delayed ascent.
basically...worst case is that rhe season's results disappoint AD and he starts the path to his exit
you can choose to agree with that or not, but we've all seen this movie before (a star gets frustrated and wants to leave) and it really does seem like this year its make or break
Posted on 10/5/18 at 12:47 pm to cgrand
quote:
Best-Case Scenario: Things finally go as planned, and the Pelicans take a leap four years in the making.
So last year wasn't a leap?
Posted on 10/5/18 at 12:52 pm to cgrand
I can't see us falling far this year assuming decent health, and if we do, i'd blame it on AD more than likely. If he's a top 3 player in the league that he and everyone else boasts he is, and Jrue and Niko are healthy most of the season, then it would most likely be his fault if we are merely a .500 team or worse. It's his job to elevate us to that next level, not Jrue, not Solo, not Payton, not Uncle Alroy. This league is driven by star players. If Harden can get a bunch of role players to be the 2nd best team in the league, and Lebron can get the shitty Cavs to the finals constantly, then AD should be able to get this team with Jrue and Niko to win 50 games and make some noise in the playoffs at least.
There is no conceivable circumstance i can see where he does not sign the extension.
I'd say this year will tell us more about AD the player, than if the Pels are good enough to keep AD long term. Maybe committing $40-50M a year to a guy that isn't elevating us to championship caliber team isn't worth it? Once his contract goes in place, our team is pretty much set b/c we will be a tax team, and we don't have much in assets to get much more help. If we aren't a top 5 team in the league in the next 2-3 years, then what's the point? Basically be what Memphis was for a few years with Conly/Gasol/ZBo? might as well start the rebuild with the assets you can get for AD.
That's worst case scenario if you ask me.
There is no conceivable circumstance i can see where he does not sign the extension.
I'd say this year will tell us more about AD the player, than if the Pels are good enough to keep AD long term. Maybe committing $40-50M a year to a guy that isn't elevating us to championship caliber team isn't worth it? Once his contract goes in place, our team is pretty much set b/c we will be a tax team, and we don't have much in assets to get much more help. If we aren't a top 5 team in the league in the next 2-3 years, then what's the point? Basically be what Memphis was for a few years with Conly/Gasol/ZBo? might as well start the rebuild with the assets you can get for AD.
That's worst case scenario if you ask me.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 2:03 pm to Spudly
quote:
So last year wasn't a leap?
Exactly. So if you arent better than Houston or GSW you suck.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 2:16 pm to Hester Carries
quote:
Exactly. So if you arent better than Houston or GSW you suck.
i think yall are discounting how vital it is that the pels at minimum place themselves in the GSW/HOU/BOS/TOR etc tier conversation. a team cannot be considered a "contender" if they go out 4-1 in the 2nd round (even to GSW).
in the article...he says a case can be made for the pels as 3rd best in the west. in my opinion, they'd better be
Posted on 10/5/18 at 2:25 pm to cgrand
quote:
he says a case can be made for the pels as 3rd best in the west. in my opinion, they'd better be
Best case scenario is AD winning MVP and doing enough in the playoffs to get some big endorsement deals. Today his agents can tell him "Form a super team with LeBron and I'll get you from $10 million in endorsements to $35 million like KD". That $25 million per year would make up for walking away from the Supermax. If he wins the MVP and has a strong playoff performance he can hopefully get in the $20 million endorsement club like Harden and Westbrook and then it's not as easy to talk him into walking away from the Supermax.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 2:32 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
If he wins the MVP and has a strong playoff performance he can hopefully get in the $20 million endorsement club like Harden and Westbrook and then it's not as easy to talk him into walking away from the Supermax.
i've been thinking about this, and since its still the off season maybe we could speculate...
whats the type of endorsement/ad campaign/branding campaign that would be best for davis? westbrook and his energy drink commercials were pretty good, but he's got that angle working already (weird fashion). i'm talking about that kind of advertising where AD's personality drives the conversation...but what IS his personality. he seems like a really funny guy, but he's got no angle (yet). plus, and this is no jab at him at all, his quiet demeanor doesnt demaiond eyeballs like some others
i think its unlikely that davis will be made into a "character" in ads, and thats where the big bucks (ie: cliff paul/state farm) are
Posted on 10/5/18 at 2:35 pm to cgrand
quote:
in the article...he says a case can be made for the pels as 3rd best in the west. in my opinion, they'd better be
Exactly.
Some people are picking the Pels to be the team that doesn't make the playoffs in the West. If we win 48 games, maybe have some bad injury luck, and miss the playoffs, then so be it. But given what's coming back on this team, they should be a contender for that 3 spot without a doubt, and if they aren't, something's wrong (again, assuming relative health to the major players). There aren't many teams that boast two 2way players as good as AD and Jrue. We basically lost Rondo and replaced him with Payton, while also adding Randle, a healthy Solo, and a healthy Frank. We should be, and better, be better than last year.
It sounds a little crazy to say, but if they stay healthy, and don't win 50 games, i'd be very dissappointed.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 2:38 pm to cgrand
quote:
i think its unlikely that davis will be made into a "character" in ads
Isn't most of KD's money from his massive shoe deal? I think that's where a big chunk of new revenue for AD could come in if he can raise his profile by winning the MVP. I think he still has a year or 2 left on his current Nike deal, but Klutch is a power player so I'm sure they could talk Nike into an extension or risk losing him for sure when his contract is up.
This post was edited on 10/5/18 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 10/5/18 at 2:42 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
Isn't most of KD's money from his massive shoe deal? I think that's where a big chunk of new revenue for AD could come in if he can raise his profile by winning the MVP.
maybe so, and maybe nike would do a signature shoe IF AD wins the MVP. the uncertainty with that is:
1) if the pels dont at minimum win 55-60 games (and look good doing it) AD's not winning MVP regardless of his numbers
2) all of nike's signature shoes are for shooters...thats what the kids want to be. AD is not a shooter/shotmaker/whatever you want to call it
This post was edited on 10/5/18 at 2:44 pm
Posted on 10/5/18 at 2:44 pm to cgrand
I’ll get concerned with the Klutch stuff if we don’t improve this season. If we can win 54ish games and get to the 2nd round with a much closer series, I won’t be freaking out much about the contract. ANYTHING less and I’m gonna be a little paranoid at best. Our best and only shot of keeping AD is if he feels like he’s on a team that has a shot in a couple years.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 11:16 pm to TigerinATL
There is no F'ing way AD walks away from a supermax, and no agent is going to talk him out of that either. Waaaaaay too much money on the table to roll the dice like that. The agents own a calculator, and best believe they can can figure out what they'll be losing in fees for a shot at an endorsement. No happening, amigo.
Posted on 10/6/18 at 8:53 am to Solo
quote:
There is no F'ing way AD walks away from a supermax
i don't know. it just depends on what he values most at that point in his career.
Davis will have banked over $121M in his career by 2020. he will almost certainly get at least another ~$150-$175m guaranteed in his next contract even if he signs somewhere else. that's generational wealth either way.
maybe he wants to take all the money he can and build his own business empire or just set him and his family up. maybe he wants to play in a different system or feels like he must win a title to validate his career a la KD. maybe he wants to go play with his buddy Kyrie in Boston. maybe he just wants to be in LA or NYC or Chicago.
and Klutch/Davis are not dumb either. so the Pels supermax Davis, what else can they build around him to make sure they compete for titles? are they going into the tax every year like Cleveland did or GS is doing? will Davis be happy making $50 and being on a 48 win team?
the Pels must do everything they can to prove to him they are a first class organization and are willing to do whatever it takes to compete for titles for the duration. if not, i dont think the money will matter that much at all
Posted on 10/6/18 at 9:38 am to corndeaux
quote:
and Klutch/Davis are not dumb either. so the Pels supermax Davis, what else can they build around him to make sure they compete for titles? are they going into the tax every year like Cleveland did or GS is doing? will Davis be happy making $50 and being on a 48 win team?
and there it is, the unspoken truth about signing AD to that huge contract. the pels have ZERO functional depth on scale contracts...none, nada. yes they have their future picks but unless something drastically changes and they get generationally lucky, there’s no help coming there that they can point to now.
this will be a 4-man team for the life of that contract
Posted on 10/6/18 at 9:44 am to cgrand
quote:
unless something drastically changes and they get generationally lucky
I think whether this team takes a leap or falls apart all depends on Payton and Randle. They need those 2 to both live up to their potential yet still remain cheap enough resign next year so that they can get them to their Early Bird Rights and have enough money to keep them long term closer to market value. Considering both are non shooters I do think there's a chance it could happen. To me that is what the last hopes for the AD era hinges on most.
Posted on 10/6/18 at 9:51 am to TigerinATL
quote:
They need those 2 to both live up to their potential yet still remain cheap enough resign next year so that they can get them to their Early Bird Rights and have enough money to keep them long term closer to market value.
the dell demps experience in one sentence
Posted on 10/6/18 at 10:57 am to TigerinATL
I would say moreso for Randle. I will also say it hinges on which wing they eventually end up with and how he gels.
Posted on 10/7/18 at 10:03 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Considering both are non shooters I do think there's a chance it could happen
what are the chances that the Pels are good enough to keep Davis interested in staying and those guys (+ Mirotic) stay in the price range the Pels can afford?
seems like a narrow window there since those players will likely have to be key players on a 50+ win team
Posted on 10/7/18 at 10:05 am to cgrand
quote:
the unspoken truth about signing AD to that huge contract.
supermax as an idea is a bust for me
Posted on 10/7/18 at 10:38 am to corndeaux
quote:
what are the chances that the Pels are good enough to keep Davis interested in staying and those guys (+ Mirotic) stay in the price range the Pels can afford?
I think Randle getting a 20% raise with the promise of a 75% raise the following year isn’t taking that big of a discount if he likes the fit.
Payton seems like he’d be harder to lockdown with the promise of Early Bird Rights but PG is a saturated position in the league and non shooters are not desired right now. Throw in the hometown team and I think it can happen. You’re talking about him taking a 1 year discount to stay in a situation where he’d be the starting PG on a championship caliber team he grew up cheering for. He’s got a Fleur de Bee tattoo, He’d at least think about it before saying no.
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