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re: How Good Does This Team Have To Be For You To Accept Losing the 2022 1st?
Posted on 1/14/22 at 9:25 am to Soggymoss
Posted on 1/14/22 at 9:25 am to Soggymoss
quote:
Tanking is not the answer, trying to win every single game we can, which will push Zion to work even harder than he already is, and you may have a legit top 8 team in the NBA, which will then start getting more guys to look our way in the offseason.
The roster is incomplete, especially at the guard position as Bronc said, but when you have a transcendent player like Zion he can clean up a lot of that stuff. We won't be a WCF team of course but I could see a version of this team with Zion healthy this year threatening for 2nd round.
It's also not the pels fault that the west is so shitty and injured this year that we make the playoffs/play-in because of it.
And I also want BI to get playoff experience. Zion is the guy that needs it the most but BI has fought his arse off and almost deserves it.
0
Posted on 1/14/22 at 9:25 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
having that experience without Zion is kind of pointless
It's absolutely not pointless, if anything it would be better. Imagine the fire Zion would come back with knowing his teammates made the playoffs and lost, and things could have went differently had he been there.
I would argue them making it without him would unlock a level in Zion that you could only dream of.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 9:26 am to TigerinATL
I’m not concerned at all because the lakers are going to fall into the lottery, jump up and give the Pels a top 4 pick.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 9:27 am to Soggymoss
quote:
It's absolutely not pointless, if anything it would be better. Imagine the fire Zion would come back with knowing his teammates made the playoffs and lost, and things could have went differently had he been there.
I would argue them making it without him would unlock a level in Zion that you could only dream of.
Agree 100%.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 9:44 am to Soggymoss
quote:
Tanking is not the answer,
100% agree. I don't ever want them to not win. It's easy as a fan to say "i'd like to tank this year", and that may make sense in the grand scheme of things, but i would never expect the guys on the team to accept that, and i will never be upset about them playing hard and getting better. We've proven we don't know how to draft anyway so who cares if we have the 15th pick or no pick. I'd rather the momentum of finishing the season strong.
But the ideal situation with Zion not playing this season, is to tank.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 9:54 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
I don't ever want them to not win
quote:
But the ideal situation with Zion not playing this season, is to tank
Ummmm... Does not compute
Posted on 1/14/22 at 9:56 am to TigerinATL
Now that the odds have changed, tanking doesn't really make sense. I don't have a link but there's really not a big difference in odds between a top 3 pick and picking between 4-7. OKC has had a bottom 3 record the past 2 years and has not gotten a top 3 pick. To discredit tanking even more, they drafted a very good player despite not picking in the top 3, so it really makes you question the purpose of tanking. Also, you can't evaluate your team if you're trying to lose. Adam Silver did this on purpose and it's working. You're better off trying to win without giving up future assets. If we make the playoffs, we only lose a mid first round pick, which isn't a big loss.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:02 am to saintslsupels
quote:
I don't have a link but there's really not a big difference in odds between a top 3 pick and picking between 4-7.
This year?
Outside of the top 4 there absolutely is a big difference this year.
This is a weaker draft and unless you are going to take a flyer on a Jaden Hardy, the prospects for all star level talent outside the top 4 aren’t great.
quote:
If we make the playoffs, we only lose a mid first round pick, which isn't a big loss.
That’s not the only opportunity cost here.
The opportunity cost is also not chasing wins-at-all-cost and playing this season more in a developmental framework, not tanking, but not aggressively trying to grind out every win at the expense of playing young guys and star health, and ending up in the 4-8ish range with good odds to jump up(I think it’s 7 that has jumped up most seasons for instance).
This post was edited on 1/14/22 at 10:04 am
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:04 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
We've proven we don't know how to draft anyway so who cares if we have the 15th pick or no pick. I'd rather the momentum of finishing the season strong.
and people improving in ways that dont happen if they dngaf.
and, usually td scoffs at pick 15ish. currently thats kira13 and naw17. and at best clarke21 and bey19th.
at 15 its a coin flip whether you find the next bey/bane or you pick someone who never starts his whole five years in nba. play your best.
do all you can every day.
if theres 3 games to go and you can get the pick if you lose two, then omg ingram has a sprained toe and jv has a sprained finger. send hayes out there with sato. lol. but first really try.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:06 am to CelticDog
If you have nothing but players used to losing, you shouldn't be surprised when your team is comfortable continually losing.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:15 am to TigerinATL
quote:If we make the playoffs, it's absolutely worth it.
How Good Does This Team Have To Be For You To Accept Losing the 2022 1st?
I know many want to or wanted to tank and try to get in the top 4, but I feel that people forget if you make the playoffs, that means you have a pretty decent team. And if we do that with 80% of the season or maybe even 100% without Zion, that's an absolutely great sign for the team.
If we make the play in as 9/10, I'd still want playoffs but would happily take that 1st rounder if we lose. IF we make the play at 7/8 I'd obviously be a good bit more disappointed in missing the playoffs as it would take losing 2 in a row but still a consolation prize of a 1st rounder.
All that to say, I want playoffs.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:17 am to Soggymoss
quote:
Ummmm... Does not compute
the real nba isn't a video game.
the point is that in an ideal world where you don't have to worry about peoples feelings, you'd want the team to tank and get a high draft pick this year, but we don't live in video game world.
That's why i said in an ideal situation we should tank, but that's no realistic, and i personally would never be upset about the Pels winning games and getting better.
are you able to see the difference here?
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:20 am to Bronc
quote:
think it’s 7 that has jumped up most seasons for instance).
random.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:25 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Also, just think about the culture and how well the team seems to be responding to wanting to play hard for Willie Green.
a. It signals to the team (esp Zion) that winning matters.
b. It's good experience. We're not just going to appear and be a top 4 seed. We're young and need to get playoff experience when we can.
Then think what's better for the players to be in the right mindset going forward, we drop BI to 30mpg, same with JV down to 25mpg, we sit them a game here and there when healthy to do the stealth tank, we suck and bottom out with a bottom 5 record. Or we play hard and get into the playoffs and let them experience meaningful basketball in a Pels uniform.
Which one of those has the team in the best mindset going into next season?
Another thing, the draft lottery is way more of a crapshoot with the new setup, and the final thing, you always just assume with that #4 or whatever pick, you're going to get a stud. Maybe you don't, maybe you bottom out and the dude you draft doesn't turn out to be who you thought he would, then what?
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:29 am to Bronc
quote:Given how badly POR is about to tank, if we stay relatively healthy, I think the best we can hope for is around 5th best lottery odds. That gives you 42% odds of getting into the top 4.
but you play in pumpers are gonna get your wish it seems barring injury…we’ll get a play in berth, either lose or get the privilege of being a warm up series for GS or Pho. Neither of which is going to alter the perception of this franchise much, but will cost a first rounder or put that first rounder at a point in the draft it lacks much value or upside probability given how front loaded this draft is
We could get into the play in as a 9th or 10th seed and still end up with the 7th or so worst record if we lose the play in and then have a 32% chance of hitting the top 4.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:44 am to Bronc
quote:
None of that is going to make this team better over the next 2-5 years vs landing a top 4 talent
What are our chances of landing a "top 4 talent" currently?
How do you propose that we get worse? This team is doing this without Zion, without Kira, and with the corpse of Sato.
Do you propose this:
quote:
Board Member #1: I've never heard of half of these guys and the ones I do know are way past their prime.
Langdon: Most of these guys never had a prime.
Griff: The facts are, we lost our two best players to free agency. We haven't won a pennant in over thirty-five years, we haven't placed higher than 4th in the last fifteen. Obviously, it's time for some changes.
Board Member #2: This guy here is dead.
Griff: [obviously...] Cross him off, then.
?
quote:
Where everyone kept trying to convince themselves that a poorly constructed and incomplete roster was better than it was and just needed health and would sell themselves on rather marginal upgrades and season milestones over the obvious path, which is to see a lost season as an opportunity to get the roster better, not desperately try and achieve what is ultimately, long term, a meaningless milestone, which won’t make up for the lack of talent in the long run.
And you are making unicorn talking points, where we destroy what little energy and culture that seems to be changing in our team in order to gamble on a "top 4 talent" that also immediately is an all-star level player, who then leads to the very culture and mindset changes that we just destroyed in 2022.
You think that plan has a better likelihood of long-term success, especially since our superstar may have one foot out the door for the very culture and mindset you're hoping returns?
quote:
It’s clear we aren’t going my direction at this point, which would be winning, sure, but coequally focus on conserving the health of our best players by not piling on too many minutes and developing our young guys. We’d likely still have nice wins but slip comfortably into the early lottery and have something to actually use long-term…but you play in pumpers are gonna get your wish it seems barring injury
Dude, you want to play our young guys...who isn't being played and developed right now? We're relying on a rookie and scrubs.
You would have to actively seek to destroy all the good and positive energy that has organically grown within those very young players you want to develop.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:45 am to shel311
I’d prefer the better odds.
This team as constructed is only chasing a token 18 Detroit or 19 Magic type playoff berth. Weak conference in a weak year where weak teams can fall in.
And like those teams, the future imo is going to come down to the talent, not token play-in experience, and for me, we have a real shot of being in a position to get another top 5 talent by just not chasing wins at all costs(not tanking, but just not going all out). And given the weakness of this draft, falling to 10 or so is probably pushing you out of range of even the solid upside guys.
And what’s ironic is that if a team like Portland bottoms out and gets, say, Ivey. I 100% think they push their long-term chances of both winning and retaining Lillard through the roof. Either by keeping and utilizing him, freeing up trading someone else, or trading him for a difference maker on a team blowing it up….Which is what we should be hoping to happen. Because long term, it’s better for the franchise
This team as constructed is only chasing a token 18 Detroit or 19 Magic type playoff berth. Weak conference in a weak year where weak teams can fall in.
And like those teams, the future imo is going to come down to the talent, not token play-in experience, and for me, we have a real shot of being in a position to get another top 5 talent by just not chasing wins at all costs(not tanking, but just not going all out). And given the weakness of this draft, falling to 10 or so is probably pushing you out of range of even the solid upside guys.
And what’s ironic is that if a team like Portland bottoms out and gets, say, Ivey. I 100% think they push their long-term chances of both winning and retaining Lillard through the roof. Either by keeping and utilizing him, freeing up trading someone else, or trading him for a difference maker on a team blowing it up….Which is what we should be hoping to happen. Because long term, it’s better for the franchise
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:46 am to Soggymoss
quote:
Go tell BI, Hart, Jonas and he'll even Herb that your plan is to limit their minutes and tank to try to get a better draft pick.
You will get 2-3 trade demands within minutes, which then sets you back 5 years, and really sets you back in trying to attract free agents ti play with the coach it seems you hit a home run on.
Exactly.
We're running a skeleton crew out there and guys are buying in and talking about how much better they like it here this year. Hell, Hart has pulled a 180 in terms of attitude and has improved. Ingram has improved and is showing energy he has never shown here. Bronc wants to force toxicity on a rejuvenated team that was on the brink of implosion a year ago. For what? Having to deal everyone and rebuild around that "top 4 pick"?
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:50 am to Bronc
quote:
Because long term, it’s better for the franchise
We already have national media trying to push Zion out of here, continue losing for what you say is "better for the franchise", then the small rumblings of them trying to get BI and Jonas out will begin to increase to the point where they do go in and demand a trade because you haven't shown a commitment to winning, and your only commitment has been to trying to get a better draft pick.
This post was edited on 1/14/22 at 10:51 am
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