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re: How Good Does This Team Have To Be For You To Accept Losing the 2022 1st?
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:51 am to Bronc
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:51 am to Bronc
LINK
This chart shows why I think tanking has become kind of a waste. Orlando has the worst record, and they have a 48% chance of getting the FIFTH pick, and a 52% chance of getting any pick between 1-4.
There's really no way we can move down to a bottom 3 team no matter how hard we try to tank, so our best hope is having the 4th worst record. Even with having the 4th worst record, you have a better chance of getting pick 5-9 instead of 1-4. Factor in that we need guards more than bigs in a draft that's top heavy with bigs, just doesn't make sense to tank. Putting all of eggs in 1 basket to hope you get Jaden Ivey is very risky. Hell, we can make the play-in and still get Ivey.
This chart shows why I think tanking has become kind of a waste. Orlando has the worst record, and they have a 48% chance of getting the FIFTH pick, and a 52% chance of getting any pick between 1-4.
There's really no way we can move down to a bottom 3 team no matter how hard we try to tank, so our best hope is having the 4th worst record. Even with having the 4th worst record, you have a better chance of getting pick 5-9 instead of 1-4. Factor in that we need guards more than bigs in a draft that's top heavy with bigs, just doesn't make sense to tank. Putting all of eggs in 1 basket to hope you get Jaden Ivey is very risky. Hell, we can make the play-in and still get Ivey.
1
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:51 am to Bronc
quote:
we have a real shot of being in a position to get another top 5 talent by just not chasing wins at all costs(not tanking, but just not going all out).
Our team is a bunch of young guys, duct tape, and my boy Jonas. The only way to "not go all out" is to demand they stop playing hard.
quote:
And given the weakness of this draft, falling to 10 or so is probably pushing you out of range of even the solid upside guys.
This is an argument that completely goes against your entire point. You want a high risk strategy with a very low range of worthy reward, with a real terrible likely reward range outside of that terribly unlikely sliver.
And the cost of this is destroying our current team and likely sealing the fate of our superstar leaving.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:52 am to saintslsupels
quote:
There's really no way we can move down to a bottom 3 team no matter how hard we try to tank, so our best hope is having the 4th worst record. Even with having the 4th worst record, you have a better chance of getting pick 5-9 instead of 1-4. Factor in that we need guards more than bigs in a draft that's top heavy with bigs, just doesn't make sense to tank.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:54 am to Soggymoss
quote:
Go tell BI, Hart, Jonas and he'll even Herb that your plan is to limit their minutes and tank to try to get a better draft pick.
Stop trying to make this a zero sum situation when it’s not.
My argument was simply you don’t push for wins at all cost and co-focus in developing guys like Trey/Jax/Herb. Meaning, you aren’t out there giving Bi close to 40 minutes and playing Temple over developmental guys we need to improve or see what they have.
And tbh, I’ll simply point to history where people like you have got aggressive at me for taking a long-term, talent/fit maximizing perspective to the situation, be it the Adams trade, trading back from the fourth, whether Bled was a viable replacement, whether we actually had spacing last year, whether Zion was a bust after 40 games, or going back to whether Demps accelerating the timeline would actually achieve it… and point out I have so far batted pretty damn well. So, I’ll stand by this hunch, that a token play-in berth is unlikely to be more valuable for the long-term health and future of this franchise than getting a top 5 pick.
If we happen to luck into it via losing the play-in, great! But you seem to want even more than that which is to just lose the pick for a token warm up round for PHO or GS. Which I find completely worthless long term
This post was edited on 1/14/22 at 10:58 am
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:56 am to Bronc
quote:I hear that, but you've talked about the subtle tank strategy but never really address the opportunity costs there.
That’s not the only opportunity cost here.
The opportunity cost is also not chasing wins-at-all-cost and playing this season more in a developmental framework, not tanking, but not aggressively trying to grind out every win at the expense of playing young guys and star health, and ending up in the 4-8ish range with good odds to jump up(I think it’s 7 that has jumped up most seasons for instance).
Maybe we finish with the 4th worst record. What do we lose... you can see right now there is a real sense of happiness with this team. All of that, gone if bottom out. No one is happy, we're not creating a positive culture of winning. Our overall record may look terrible, but we're 13-10 over our past 23, that's more than 25% of a season we're playing good ball. That matters, that's how you create a culture of winning.
Next, we can bottom out with the 4th worst record and still get the 6th pick in the draft which as you stated is basically a 4 man draft. Not only that, what if the dude we draft is a bust? What's the opportunity cost there? We will have sacrificed trying to establish a positive culture for a shitty basketball player.
Also, you stated outside of the top 4 there is a huge drop off. If we finish with the 4th worst record in the NBA, we have a better chance of drafting outside of the top 4 than inside of the top 4. Putting all the eggs in the basket of something with a less than 50% chance of occurring doesn't seem prudent IMO.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 10:59 am to Bronc
quote:Unless we finish with a bottom 3 record, which the odds are very low of that even if we did the stealth tank then the odds are we don't draft in the top 4 of a 4 person draft.
I’d prefer the better odds.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 11:00 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:All that talk about how happy Hart is and how different it is with Willie compared to SVG, all or the vast majority of it is gone if he knows the team is not trying to win and in fact, trying to lose.
We're running a skeleton crew out there and guys are buying in and talking about how much better they like it here this year. Hell, Hart has pulled a 180 in terms of attitude and has improved
Posted on 1/14/22 at 11:03 am to Bronc
quote:
My argument was simply you don’t push for wins at all cost and co-focus in developing guys like Trey/Jax/Herb.
How are we not focusing on developing them currently?
quote:
Meaning, you aren’t out there giving Bi close to 40 minutes and playing Temple over developmental guys we need to improve or see what they have.
Ingram is our guy. If he wants to play, you play him.
And which young player is Temple taking minutes away from? You think we should run Jax out at point for a few possessions each game?
Temple is a function of how there is no meat to cut. You keep pretending that we can magically lose games without giving guys like Temple more minutes.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 11:06 am to shel311
quote:
All that talk about how happy Hart is and how different it is with Willie compared to SVG, all or the vast majority of it is gone if he knows the team is not trying to win and in fact, trying to lose.
Not only is that happiness going to be lost, it's literally the only way to achieve Bronc's goals.
We're not winning based on talent. We're winning b/c of mindset, heart, energy, etc. That's why we hired Willie and why we had to fire SVG so quickly.
How do we tank without destroying our mindset, heart, energy, etc.? Those are the very things propelling us right now. The only way to tank is to make our team toxic.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 11:11 am to shel311
Honestly Shel, I’m sort of tired of having these endless conversations where we all look back 12 months from now and realize people were getting caught up in the emotion of a particular moment and trying to shade things with rose colored glasses and argue against the people that weren’t.
There’s a scenario where everything works out perfectly like you want and we play hard, lose the play in, and win the lottery and that would be great.
But history tells you that over the long term a token playoff doesn’t give you much(see past Pels, Detroit, Orlando) and that in the long run, maximizing the chance at improving talent beats out immediate low level experience because talent will ultimately accelerate your ability to gain meaningful experience and it will also stabilize the long-term health and competitiveness of your franchise. Also doing a better job of keeping the very players you are trying to use playoff experience to keep happy.
I mean ask yourself this simple question, do you think BI and Zion are more likely to sign up for their third contracts here or not demand out if: we make the playoffs this year and then go on to largely be a second tier team having to over-exert to punch up because we lack the additional talent a top 4 pick could have facilitated, or, we finish outside the play in after co-focusing on development and add a top 5 pick we hit on or package it for an All star and we develop into contender within a couple seasons?
I’m aware both situations could go belly up, but the latter has a much, much better chance of positioning this franchise over the next 5 years than the path some like Soggy want, which is playoffs. So if I’m choosing, I want to intelligently maximize this lost season for the long term, not think hyper short term
There’s a scenario where everything works out perfectly like you want and we play hard, lose the play in, and win the lottery and that would be great.
But history tells you that over the long term a token playoff doesn’t give you much(see past Pels, Detroit, Orlando) and that in the long run, maximizing the chance at improving talent beats out immediate low level experience because talent will ultimately accelerate your ability to gain meaningful experience and it will also stabilize the long-term health and competitiveness of your franchise. Also doing a better job of keeping the very players you are trying to use playoff experience to keep happy.
I mean ask yourself this simple question, do you think BI and Zion are more likely to sign up for their third contracts here or not demand out if: we make the playoffs this year and then go on to largely be a second tier team having to over-exert to punch up because we lack the additional talent a top 4 pick could have facilitated, or, we finish outside the play in after co-focusing on development and add a top 5 pick we hit on or package it for an All star and we develop into contender within a couple seasons?
I’m aware both situations could go belly up, but the latter has a much, much better chance of positioning this franchise over the next 5 years than the path some like Soggy want, which is playoffs. So if I’m choosing, I want to intelligently maximize this lost season for the long term, not think hyper short term
This post was edited on 1/14/22 at 11:14 am
Posted on 1/14/22 at 11:20 am to Bronc
quote:
and that in the long run, maximizing the chance at improving talent
You're talking in generalities.
Tell me how we accomplish this with our current, depleted roster.
quote:
do you think BI and Zion are more likely to sign up for their third contracts here or not demand out if: we make the playoffs this year and then go on to largely be a second tier team having to over-exert to punch up because we lack the additional talent a top 4 pick could have facilitated,
The problem is that your hypo only presumes the peak-positive. We aren't likely to get a top 4 pick even if we gut our team.
Yes, if everything works out perfectly, we could be in a better position in 2 years. The odds of that happening are exceptionally low.
Your plan is a high risk, low chance plan that will take destroying our current roster in the meantime. So not only do we have to get EXTREMELY lucky just to get a top-4 pick, but we also have to get lucky that the pick is a star and that we have Zion/Ingram on the team when that pick is ready to be a star.
Here is the other issue. Your argument always works. We can always tank and get more talent with top 4 picks that are stars automatically. Why wouldn't we tank next year? Or the following year?
Posted on 1/14/22 at 11:25 am to SlowFlowPro
What is the high risk my man? Zion is out for the season and BI and Val are locked up in contracts. The rest are not core pieces. You aren’t sitting them, just not trying to win at all costs.
We are not a good team, sorry, just because the West is terrible doesn’t make us good because we can fall into the play in.
Conversations like this would be much better if you just were honest: I want a playoffs because I want to watch it and I don’t have patience and I don’t want to tune into less than 100% win-now games. Instead of wrapping yourself in knots that somehow getting waxed in the playoffs and losing a pick is somehow better for this franchise than an injection of talent on a wonky roster.
When the real reason is simply selfish: I want it.
We are not a good team, sorry, just because the West is terrible doesn’t make us good because we can fall into the play in.
Conversations like this would be much better if you just were honest: I want a playoffs because I want to watch it and I don’t have patience and I don’t want to tune into less than 100% win-now games. Instead of wrapping yourself in knots that somehow getting waxed in the playoffs and losing a pick is somehow better for this franchise than an injection of talent on a wonky roster.
When the real reason is simply selfish: I want it.
This post was edited on 1/14/22 at 11:27 am
Posted on 1/14/22 at 11:35 am to Bronc
quote:
You aren’t sitting them, just not trying to win at all costs.
What does this even mean? I see you dodged my question on specifics.
quote:
We are not a good team, sorry, just because the West is terrible doesn’t make us good because we can fall into the play in.
I have been arguing that we're winning based on heart and emotion, not talent. The whole problem with your theory is that you think there is meat on the bone we can cut without intentionally telling our team to lose. That would destroy everything Willie has built.
quote:
Conversations like this would be much better if you just were honest:
Where am I being dishonest?
quote:
I want a playoffs because I want to watch it and I don’t have patience and I don’t want to tune into less than 100% win-now games.
quote:
somehow getting waxed in the playoffs and losing a pick is somehow better for this franchise than an injection of talent on a wonky roster.
a. That "injection of talent" is likely to be nothing major (unless we get Kahwi lucky). We're likely to be picking around 10-12. Where does your own demarcation line end? Top 4. So by your own standards, we're almost assured of not getting an "injection of talent" (unless you want to start promoting mid-1st talent as "talent").
b. We just had a terrible year and offseason that seemed to infect everyone in the organization, but especially Zion. Currently, the only reason why our team is winning is because of heart, effort, energy, and all the things that you find with a non-toxic atmosphere. Other than the odds (Which are not in your favor), my primary argument is that we can only force this tank by intentionally making our team and franchise toxic. If you do that, neither Zion nor Ingram are promised to be here next year.
quote:
When the real reason is simply selfish: I want it.
I want a positive atmosphere and our guys to enjoy playing for the Pelicans. Yes.
I don't want a toxic atmosphere for an extremely low chance of actually accomplishing your goal.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 11:50 am to SlowFlowPro
I’ve already stated what that would look like Slow. You mange your stars minutes in a way that your aren’t pushing BI into the high 30’s or 40’s, like we’ve done to chase some wins. You put guys like Murphy and Jax back into the steady rotation with an eye on developing them. Give Herb more room to experiment and try. Run sets for Jax shooting threes to develop that. It’s not difficult to tweak the focus a bit in a way that you still can try and win games but will fall short more often.
Beyond that this is largely the last I will say on this because everything is going in circles.
The long term goal of this franchise is to win championships and be consistently competitive at a high level, to achieve that you will need stars like Zion and Bi. To keep them you are going to need to surround them with enough talent(Zion especially) that they aren’t looking to greener pastures by the mid to end of their second contracts.
The best way to achieve that is to achieve the larger goal of winning at a high level. Not a token playoff appearance years out from those decisions.
As currently constructed we are not there.
Now, we have a season with no Zion, a poorly constructed roster, and a situation where if we fall into the playoffs we will get waxed AND lose a pick. It places this season in a unique box, assuming you get decent Zion health going forward(and if not, the pick is insurance there as well).
It’s very simple, playoff scenario is going to put us on a path where achieving the primary goal is very challenging, if not impossible(and if a pathway exists, it exists down path 2 as well, and likely a better version as well because of the additional asset), path two, while not a surefire, at least offers a conceivable pathway with decent odds to moving us further in that direction.
So it’s simple, give me path 2. The Pels have been terrible for a long time, if one more year improves our odds of getting out of the cycle, I can delay my need for wins-driven gratification one more time
Beyond that this is largely the last I will say on this because everything is going in circles.
The long term goal of this franchise is to win championships and be consistently competitive at a high level, to achieve that you will need stars like Zion and Bi. To keep them you are going to need to surround them with enough talent(Zion especially) that they aren’t looking to greener pastures by the mid to end of their second contracts.
The best way to achieve that is to achieve the larger goal of winning at a high level. Not a token playoff appearance years out from those decisions.
As currently constructed we are not there.
Now, we have a season with no Zion, a poorly constructed roster, and a situation where if we fall into the playoffs we will get waxed AND lose a pick. It places this season in a unique box, assuming you get decent Zion health going forward(and if not, the pick is insurance there as well).
It’s very simple, playoff scenario is going to put us on a path where achieving the primary goal is very challenging, if not impossible(and if a pathway exists, it exists down path 2 as well, and likely a better version as well because of the additional asset), path two, while not a surefire, at least offers a conceivable pathway with decent odds to moving us further in that direction.
So it’s simple, give me path 2. The Pels have been terrible for a long time, if one more year improves our odds of getting out of the cycle, I can delay my need for wins-driven gratification one more time
Posted on 1/14/22 at 11:58 am to SlowFlowPro
I want to continue to reference OKC for why tanking doesn't mean what it used too. They went all out to tank last year, including intentionally not playing good vets (not sure how they get away with that). What did they get as a reward for an entire year of intentionally losing? The 6th pick of the draft. Who did they get? Josh Giddy, who they could have gotten a few picks later. Next 3 picks after Giddey we're Kuminga, Wagner and Mitchell. All those guys have the same or better potential than Giddey. So they threw away an entire year, gave a clear message to free agents not to sign, hurt the fan base, and hurt there chances of resigning SGA.
Silver knew exactly what he was doing when he flattened the odds, and so far I think it's working.
Silver knew exactly what he was doing when he flattened the odds, and so far I think it's working.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 12:01 pm to Bronc
I dont agree with the tank or slow tank, we are trying to change the culture and that is what is happening. This team plays very hard for their coach and you don't want to mess that up.
But the same time I do not think they need to make any knee jerk trades or whatever just to make the play in games. If the person we trade for is a long term piece then do that trade but not just to get to the play in this year.
But the same time I do not think they need to make any knee jerk trades or whatever just to make the play in games. If the person we trade for is a long term piece then do that trade but not just to get to the play in this year.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 12:01 pm to Bronc
quote:
You mange your stars minutes in a way that your aren’t pushing BI into the high 30’s or 40’s, like we’ve done to chase some wins.
Let's be clear, you want to develop young guys on one hand and then stop developing our 2nd most important young guy on the other hand?
Have you missed the improvements Ingram has had doing that? Are we just assuming that this development is random and has nothing to do with how we're using/coaching him? Or, are you against improving talent so that we can get young talent that we can improve?
quote:
You put guys like Murphy and Jax back into the steady rotation
Jax is already organically doing this, and we won
Murphy needs to absorb more. He clearly was not ready earlier in the year. More PT isn't going to help until he gets his NBA base more settled.
quote:
Give Herb more room to experiment and try.
Dude, Herb is getting plenty of opportunity to develop. You're just making up shite now.
quote:
Run sets for Jax shooting threes to develop that.
This is up to Jax. His PT issues are immaturity. We can't reward him when he's acting like an a-hole. He's terrible when he's like that. Jax has to be broken down every year so that he bottoms out and has to rebuild. If we let him get away with murder we'll just have to tear up inflated ego, bad-Jax next year. He has to work within the team with a team mindset, which we are doing.
quote:
The long term goal of this franchise is to win championships
Look bud, this is not likely to happen. You have to accept it. We're a small market team in the NBA. Even with Zion, we have to get extremely lucky at the very end of our build to get that opportunity. Trying to build around outlier luck now risks blowing everything up.
quote:
to achieve that you will need stars like Zion and Bi. To keep them you are going to need to surround them with enough talent(Zion especially) that they aren’t looking to greener pastures by the mid to end of their second contracts.
They also have to be in an environment that they want to be a part of. The only way to tank this year is to create a toxic environment and tear down all the good things we've accomplished on an emotional level with this team. You think Zion wants to be a part of that? You think his team floating all that shite this offseason was because he was happy in our toxic organization?
quote:
It’s very simple, playoff scenario is going to put us on a path where achieving the primary goal is very challenging,
Your plan does the same but with the added risk of making everyone on our roster hate us.
Your plan is a LONG shot.
Do you believe that long term there is a big difference between no pick and the 10th pick?
quote:
So it’s simple, give me path 2. The Pels have been terrible for a long time, if one more year improves our odds of getting out of the cycle, I can delay my need for wins-driven gratification one more time
I don't care about making the playoffs. I care about our mindset.
The thing is, this year, our mindset is the reason why we are close to the playoff opportunity. The only way to achieve your plan is to destroy that positive mindset.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 12:03 pm to Split2874
quote:
we are trying to change the culture and that is what is happening. This team plays very hard for their coach and you don't want to mess that up.
Bronc's logical fallacy is that he thinks we can tank into having a so-so shot at the 4th pick (which will mean TANKING) and not affect the culture.
He's wrong, which is why his argument is not logical.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 12:03 pm to Bronc
quote:
You put guys like Murphy and Jax back into the steady rotation with an eye on developing them. Give Herb more room to experiment and try. Run sets for Jax shooting threes to develop that. It’s not difficult to tweak the focus a bit in a way that you still can try and win games but will fall short more often.
Not sure I've been around long enough to even deserve to give an opinion on this subject...so I'll just say... I have NO problem with your opinion, on the matter.
Posted on 1/14/22 at 12:07 pm to saintslsupels
quote:
Next 3 picks after Giddey we're Kuminga, Wagner and Mitchell. All those guys have the same or better potential than Giddey.
1.) last years draft was stacked, potentially a once or twice in a decade like draft, you have to look at each draft in its proper context
2.) I disagree. Wagner might go higher than Giddey in a redraft, but Giddey has shown himself to be a really high upside player(one of the youngest in the draft as well) with unreal passing skills
It’s harder to tank, but it’s also the only viable path teams like OKC have to get talent.
I mean what would you suggest they do instead? Trade all their picks for either a roster of role players that limit their ceiling, likely aren’t all good fits long term and your stuck, like happened with Demps/Griff, or, you build slowly and accumulate talent and identify what works and what doesn’t and screwing up doesn’t come at a premium.
As is OKC has a lot of solid talent they are building with and on pace to add more. OKC’s strategy makes sense, I can’t say the same for the Pels since drafting Zion
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