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re: ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ Discussion Thread. Currently 62%. Big 2nd Weekend drop
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:17 pm to sgallo3
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:17 pm to sgallo3
quote:
streaming, merch, and brand recognition/engagement shite.
That isn’t factored into movie math, it never has been.
Now the STUDIO might factor those things in and they’ll be lucky if they break even over the long haul, but they put themselves underwater by making this movie
1
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:18 pm to Proximo
I mean we'll know whether it beats solo or not in a few weeks. No need to play hypotheticals.
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:20 pm to Proximo
quote:
That isn’t factored into movie math, it never has been.
Well in the modern age it probably should be. Of course Star Wars is a little different animal because of the theme park stuff as well. Most movies dont have to worry about theme park and streaming service tie ins besides what they get paid up front for streaming rights.
I upvoted you because you did acknowledge that for the studio the math is much more complicated
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 3:24 pm
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:26 pm to sgallo3
quote:not really a hypothetical at this point, it’s getting crushed by horror movies, Masters comes out next week and then Toy Story.
No need to play hypotheticals.
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:27 pm to sgallo3
quote:If it needs 550 million, it can definitely lose 200+ million
Then you should agree with me that its impossible for Proximos analysis to be correct
It may end up at only 200 million revenue after this weekend (but not likely)
Unless there is an significant rebound, this is almost certain. 300 million is unlikely, unless the WW numbers really shite the bed, and we won't know that for sure until Tuesday
It isn't looking good for the film, though
As to RDLSC's point in another thread, it is unlikely this is going to make up that in toys. And you would have to show an increase over what the franchise draws annually as is, to justify attaching it to this film.
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:38 pm to Roaad
Im not claiming its gonna sell $100 million worth of toys. Im talking about brand value that comes with adding a property to your catalog. The reason these services are spending billions per year creating shows isn't to sell toys. You have to keep adding stuff to your services. Netflix spent $480 million on stranger things season 5. They arent planning on selling $480 million worth of merch. Its brand recognition/exposure/content. And they dont even have a theme park to consider.
Our math just isnt that relevant when it comes to these corporate machines.
They spend billions and will continue to.
Our math just isnt that relevant when it comes to these corporate machines.
They spend billions and will continue to.
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:39 pm to Roaad
why make a meaningless movie, several years too late, that nobody wants to go see? Reportedly, they needed to get Mando off the streaming expenses. All you're doing is diluting the brand and IP.
Make a fricking Order 66 Darth Vader movie without shoehorning in shite like Reva and it would KILL. Hayden still loves the character and is obviously on board to make more content.
I don't have faith in anyone at Lucasfilm to fix the franchise. Favreau and Filoni sit up there chuckling on their media tour and it's sad to see
Make a fricking Order 66 Darth Vader movie without shoehorning in shite like Reva and it would KILL. Hayden still loves the character and is obviously on board to make more content.
I don't have faith in anyone at Lucasfilm to fix the franchise. Favreau and Filoni sit up there chuckling on their media tour and it's sad to see
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:40 pm to Roaad
quote:
As to RDLSC's point in another thread, it is unlikely this is going to make up that in toys. And you would have to show an increase over what the franchise draws annually as is, to justify attaching it to this film.
It might lose some money, no doubt. I just don't think it needs over 600 to break even. Studios pay for marketing costs with things like licensing deals, PVOD, merchandise, streaming, etc.
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:52 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:No, 600 was always the upper limit of the estimated
It might lose some money, no doubt. I just don't think it needs over 600 to break even
Anyone suggesting higher than 600 is doing so contrary to available information
quote:Yes, but that is never sufficient, and many of the arrangements actually end up costing the studios, depending on metrics.
Studios pay for marketing costs with things like licensing deals, PVOD, merchandise, streaming, etc.
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:57 pm to sgallo3
The flagging point that is being missed
Even if the movie manages to break even. . .that makes it a total IP and financial failure, just not a catastrophe.
If you make a product that makes your company nothing, but costs them nothing. . .you are losing them money by opportunity cost, because the time you spent on that could have been spent elsewhere making something that earns a profit (assuming such a thing were available).
Even if the movie manages to break even. . .that makes it a total IP and financial failure, just not a catastrophe.
If you make a product that makes your company nothing, but costs them nothing. . .you are losing them money by opportunity cost, because the time you spent on that could have been spent elsewhere making something that earns a profit (assuming such a thing were available).
Posted on 5/30/26 at 4:09 pm to RLDSC FAN
My kid wanted to go see it today.
First of all, I am not a Star Wars fanboy. Loved the movies when I grew up and can remember the experience of seeing the first 3 in the theaters. Loved them.
I don’t hold these new ones accountable to their originals and complain about how they have ruined the franchise. Just treat them as separate sets of movies.
With that said, this was probably the worst movie I have seen in a theatre in a long long time. It was horrible. Sorry was crap. The 30+ minutes of healing the Mandolorian was like watching paint dry. Even my 13 year old said it sucked.
First of all, I am not a Star Wars fanboy. Loved the movies when I grew up and can remember the experience of seeing the first 3 in the theaters. Loved them.
I don’t hold these new ones accountable to their originals and complain about how they have ruined the franchise. Just treat them as separate sets of movies.
With that said, this was probably the worst movie I have seen in a theatre in a long long time. It was horrible. Sorry was crap. The 30+ minutes of healing the Mandolorian was like watching paint dry. Even my 13 year old said it sucked.
Posted on 5/30/26 at 4:22 pm to Lsudx256
quote:My buddy compared that scene to the camping scene in Deathly Hallows
The 30+ minutes of healing the Mandolorian was like watching paint dry.
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