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re: ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ Discussion Thread. Currently 62%. Big 2nd Weekend drop

Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:11 pm to
Posted by Roaad
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Member since Aug 2006
84253 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:11 pm to
Whoever keeps downvoting this kid, please stop.

He gets really whiny about it, it is pathetic
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27355 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

I really liked Firefly. Most people who watched it loved it. But not enough watched it, so it failed.

Firefly absolutely didnt fail. It was a really good show and they are now making an animated show.

quote:

Not enough people thought it was good enough to spend time and money on it

Last I checked, that matters

Why would people that didnt see the movie's opinion matter?
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 2:20 pm
Posted by Roaad
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Member since Aug 2006
84253 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

Firefly absolutely didnt fail.




quote:

Why would people that didnt see the movie's opinion matter?


If a movie is going to be a financial failure, isn't it important to know WHY people didn't go see it?

I would think their opinion becomes vital, at that point, unless financial failure is the goal.

Or is that just something anti-wokes, or whatever you guys call them, care about?
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 2:23 pm
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27355 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:25 pm to
Whats a financial failure? They spent more making the show than they did on the movie and that returned $0 according to your math.

The movie has already made $170 million more in 1 week than the show did in 3 seasons.
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 2:27 pm
Posted by Roaad
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Member since Aug 2006
84253 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:32 pm to
quote:

What is a financial failure
Revenue less than your expenses

quote:

They spent more making the show than they did on the movie and that returned $0 according to your math.
Ah, I see you think you have found a point, but I already educated you on this one in the other thread

quote:

The movie has already made $170 million more in 1 week than the show did in 3 seasons.
Jesus, man

Stop, for your sake
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 2:41 pm
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27355 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:35 pm to
quote:

Ah, I see you think you have found a point, but I already educated you on this one in the other thread

Unless you time traveled forward my post in this thread was 4 minutes before your post....
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
84253 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

Unless you time traveled forward my post in this thread was 4 minutes before your post....
So?

Just means you rapid fired the same bad point twice?

Not sure that's a flex

Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24277 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:52 pm to
quote:

you think people didnt like it then you just live in your own world where facts arent relevant. The review thread is full of positive reviews.

People say the exact same thing about it over and over, people that don’t care about the IP say it’s “fun” and the kids enjoyed it.

And that it doesn’t have a plot. A Star Wars movie, without a plot. No meaning.
quote:

what’s a financial failure? The movie has already made $170 million more in 1 week than the show did in 3 seasons.

This movie is on track to lose $200 million and maybe even $300 million dollars, dude.

Do you have a ton of Disney stock or something? I don’t understand what compels you to defend this failure
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27355 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

This movie is on track to lose $200 million and maybe even $300 million dollars, dude.



quote:

Do you have a ton of Disney stock or something? I don’t understand what compels you

You are the one that keeps bringing up how much it is gonna make or lose, do you own disney stock or something?
Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24277 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:56 pm to
Let’s tease out why you’re laughing at those figures.

New York Times published break even point of $600 million. This movie is going to gross $350 million if it’s lucky

What’s funny again?
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27355 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

New York Times published break even point of $600 million.

No they didn't.

They posted production and marketing to be $300 million. You quoted that. You determined that meant they needed to make $600 million to break even.
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 2:58 pm
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
84253 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:57 pm to
quote:

Do you have a ton of Disney stock or something?
He is the self-proclaimed Voice of the Silent Majority®

But that Silent Majority® didn't care enough to watch this movie. . .so here we are
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 2:58 pm
Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24277 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:59 pm to
You’re right, they published $300 million budget (conservative), which if you use the standard 2.5 multiplier would mean a break even of $750 million
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27355 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

You’re right, they published $300 million budget (conservative), which if you use the standard 2.5 multiplier would mean a break even of $750 million

The advertising was included in that $300 million in the new york times article you linked.
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
84253 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:03 pm to
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27355 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:04 pm to
Id agree it needs to make at minimum $500 million to make its money back if you only count theatrical revenue and assume the movies value to Disney after it leaves theaters is $0.
Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24277 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:04 pm to
and there is another article on that park place that says the talent costs weren’t included in the published $166 million budget NYT used. I believe related to California law but could be wrong, so anyway it was even more than $300mm.

Even using the conservative figures this movie is going to lose a lot of money because Disney alienated their audience. Even if they hadn’t, they still can’t make a meaningful movie
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
84253 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:05 pm to
quote:


Id agree it needs to make at minimum $500 million to make its money back if you only count theatrical revenue and assume the movies value to Disney after it leaves theaters is $0.
550 is the pretty settled on number

And also all I have been saying

Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27355 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:14 pm to
Then you should agree with me that its impossible for Proximos analysis to be correct
quote:


This movie is on track to lose $200 million and maybe even $300 million dollars, dude.
.
Its already gonna be over $200 million by tomorrow. It cant lose $300 million because its obviously very conservatively worth $100+ million for Disney just for streaming, merch, and brand recognition/engagement shite.

And before you argue with that, keep in mind companies pay $10 million for a 30 second super bowl ad these days.
Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24277 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:15 pm to
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quote:

Amid the total weekend domination of “Backrooms” ($90M) and “Obsession” ($30M), there’s the little-reported freefall of “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” which is eyeing a $23M second weekend. That’s a 72% drop. It’s over for this film, which will finish well below franchise expectations domestically.

It isn’t going to hit Solo’s $390 million box office, tracking showing a -72% drop

Lucky if it gets to $350mm
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