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Star Wars: TROS Tracking for an Opening Weekend Range: $185 – 225 million
Posted on 10/29/19 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 10/29/19 at 12:17 pm
quote:
This week’s report welcomes the addition of one of the most eagerly anticipated movies of 2019 and two fellow pre-Christmas releases hoping to counter-program the Star Wars juggernaut.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Opening Weekend Range: $185 – 225 million
Domestic Total Range: $550 – 750 million
PROS:
The Star Wars revival under Disney’s era has been a massive success. The Force Awakens broke the all-time opening weekend record (at the time) with $248 million in 2015 on its way to becoming the biggest domestic release of in history with $936.7 million. Since then, Rogue One and The Last Jedi collectively generated over $1.15 billion stateside.
Billed as the grand finale to the Skywalker storyline, fans are anticipating not just the conclusion of this current trilogy, but the entire episodic saga which began in 1977. While the franchise will clearly live on through other spin-offs, Disney is positioning and marketing this as a finale event for both die hards and casual viewers alike, and more of those fans are encouraged by the return of director/writer J.J. Abrams to the franchise after his successful work to resurrect the franchise with Force Awakens.
CONS:
Rise of Skywalker‘s biggest challenge will be to win back the older fan base put off by the previous two films — notably The Last Jedi with its divisive reactions. In the same breath, it will again compete with a Jumanji sequel — although this time around, Star Wars debuts after that franchise entry and doesn’t have quite as high of expectations to match relative to their respective circumstances before release two years ago.
Not bad for a dead franchise
LINK
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Posted on 10/29/19 at 12:30 pm to RLDSC FAN
It's all relative. TFA opened at $247 million and TLJ opened at $220 million.
A $185 million opening for the finale would be a damning indictment on how Disney has handled the Star Wars franchise.
A $185 million opening for the finale would be a damning indictment on how Disney has handled the Star Wars franchise.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 12:37 pm to Cs
quote:
A $185 million opening for the finale would be a damning indictment on how Disney has handled the Star Wars franchise.
I agree. That indicates a rabid fanbase saying, "you fricked this up. we don care how you end it."
Posted on 10/29/19 at 12:38 pm to Cs
True, but that's just the low end. If the movie is good, don't expect anything under 200 mil.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 12:39 pm to RLDSC FAN
If Disney played this right it would be impossible for this to not be the highest opening day/weekend/and grossing movie of all time. The fact that it's even a question, and is actually on a downward trend from the previous two isn't a good sign.
Disney turned a slam dunk into a question mark. How the frick do you do that to Star Wars?
Disney turned a slam dunk into a question mark. How the frick do you do that to Star Wars?
Posted on 10/29/19 at 12:46 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
If the movie is good
Posted on 10/29/19 at 12:55 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
Rise of Skywalker‘s biggest challenge will be to win back the older fan base put off by the previous two films — notably The Last Jedi with its divisive reactions
those people that said "George Lucas raped my childhood" with the prequels had no idea what was coming 
and solo was nowhere near as bad as the last Jedi and shouldn't be lumped in with it
Hope this thing flops and if rumors are true Disney is fearful as well (tons of reshoots, even going on two weeks ago, ticket buying, etc)
Posted on 10/29/19 at 12:56 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
In the same breath, it will again compete with a Jumanji sequel — although this time around, Star Wars debuts after that franchise entry and doesn’t have quite as high of expectations to match relative to their respective circumstances before release two years ago.
This speaks loudly how far Star Wars has fallen. Can you imagine Endgame worrying about fricking Jumanji?
Posted on 10/29/19 at 1:05 pm to The Easter Bunny
quote:
Can you imagine Endgame worrying about fricking Jumanji?
that really is a good comment. put it into perspective on what Disney did to Star Wars. 
Posted on 10/29/19 at 1:28 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
. If the movie is good, don't expect anything under 200 mil.
Seems almost certain it won't be good. From my perspective, based on the leaks, its absolutely terrible and filled with garbage.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 2:30 pm to RLDSC FAN
Won't get a single cent from me. 
Posted on 10/29/19 at 2:41 pm to Cs
quote:
A $185 million opening for the finale would be a damning indictment on how Disney has handled the Star Wars franchise.
Original Trilogy WW numbers before re-releases
A New Hope - $503,015,849 LINK
Empire Strikes Back - $400,083,259 LINK
Return of the Jedi - $374,593,074 LINK
I guess SW has been getting ruined since the very beginning.
This post was edited on 10/29/19 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 10/29/19 at 3:25 pm to Dr RC
Just throwing this out there, the box office for top level blockbusters always underestimates them. Avengers was suppose to be $150-175 million, it hit $207 million. TFA was suppose to be $200-225 million, it hit $247 million. Endgame was suppose to be $250-275 million, with one or two places predicting $280 million - it hit $350 million.
It will hit $200 million opening weekend, bare minimum. If it’s good, you’ll see $220-230 million. If it’s great you’re looking at $250 million plus.
I hated TLJ as much as any self respecting adult male should, but I’m not going to let that impact me enjoying (or trying to enjoy) the last installment (allegedly) of the Skywalker saga. There are probably a lot of people in the same situation as me, I’d wager.
It will hit $200 million opening weekend, bare minimum. If it’s good, you’ll see $220-230 million. If it’s great you’re looking at $250 million plus.
I hated TLJ as much as any self respecting adult male should, but I’m not going to let that impact me enjoying (or trying to enjoy) the last installment (allegedly) of the Skywalker saga. There are probably a lot of people in the same situation as me, I’d wager.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 3:25 pm to Dr RC
quote:
I guess SW has been getting ruined since the very beginning.
That was also in the days before sequels were the norm. You can't judge how sequels performed in the 80s and compare them to the present day.
Posted on 10/29/19 at 3:29 pm to RollTide1987
Gotta keep that narrative going I guess.
Here are the prequel trilogy ww numbers
Phantom Menace - $924,305,084 LINK
Attack of the Clones - $640,912,840 LINK
Revenge of the Sith - $849,997,605 LINK
A big drop from the first to second in a SW trilogy seems to be pretty normal.
This post was edited on 10/29/19 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 10/29/19 at 3:38 pm to Dr RC
Your numbers are all wrong dude lol
In their original Domestic releases:
ANH $307 million
ESB $203 million
ROTJ $253 million
In their original Domestic releases:
ANH $307 million
ESB $203 million
ROTJ $253 million
Posted on 10/29/19 at 3:40 pm to TheeRealCarolina
You can't read dude lol
I gave the worldwide (WW) numbers. I even gave you the boxofficemojo link to what I posted.
Either way, domestic and worldwide numbers both show it's quite normal for there to be a large drop in box office take from part one to part two in a SW trilogy.
but since you like the domestic numbers better, here they are for the prequel trilogy
Phantom Menace - $431,088,295
Attack of the Clones - $302,191,252
Revenge of the Sith - $380,270,577
I gave the worldwide (WW) numbers. I even gave you the boxofficemojo link to what I posted.
Either way, domestic and worldwide numbers both show it's quite normal for there to be a large drop in box office take from part one to part two in a SW trilogy.
but since you like the domestic numbers better, here they are for the prequel trilogy
Phantom Menace - $431,088,295
Attack of the Clones - $302,191,252
Revenge of the Sith - $380,270,577
This post was edited on 10/29/19 at 3:54 pm
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:26 pm to Dr RC
Attack of the clones was shite as well? What is your point?
Posted on 10/29/19 at 4:28 pm to Mystery
Yeah, aside from Anakin killing the sand people it was the weakest of the 3
Posted on 10/29/19 at 5:24 pm to Dr RC
quote:
A big drop from the first to second in a SW trilogy seems to be pretty normal.
What exactly are you arguing here?
The vast majority of franchises see a decline in box office from the first film to the second film. This phenomenon isn't unique to Star Wars.
This post was edited on 10/29/19 at 5:28 pm
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