re: Game of Thrones S4:E2:"The Lion and the Rose", HODORS ONLY (no book readers)

quote:

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The cup goes from being poured over Tyrion's head to being dropped and kicked over towards Sansa. Sansa picks it up and hands it to Tyrion. Tyrion refills it from a flask that was in front of Cercie. Joffrey takes a drink and sits it in front of Olenna (old lady). Joffrey then goes to cut the pie and while he does that the cup is off camera. After cutting the pie, he goes back up and makes Tyrion get the cup and Joffrey downs the wine. That's when the poison kicks in.

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Okay - it is spoiled for me, but I'll do an objective analysis:

(puts lawyer cap on) - the best evidence in Tyrion's defense is that Joffrey insisted on Tyrion serving as his cup steward - that's awfully accomodating for an assassination victim. Of course, it could have been a target of opportunity, but that's an awfully prepared assassin to have the poison on him, just in case.

Occam's razor says it was Marjorey - as she directly fed him food. However, he didn't react right away. Mace gave him the goblet. Sansa handled the goblet, as did Tyrion. Although many at the table would have had access to the wine, nobody could have been certain which wine Joffrey was going to drink. Tyrion refilled the wine from the family table, but, of course he had, pretty much exclusive access to the goblet during that period (other than Sansa). As far as the actual poisoning of the wine, Tyrion and Sansa had best access to the goblet and wine that Joffrey actually drank, while Marjorey had best access to the food that Joffrey actually ate.

Now - as far as motive - there's no one that didn't have a motive:

The fool

Sansa (obvious - revenge, motive and opportunity with access to the goblet)

Tywin (Tommen would be much easier to control as The Hand - and Tywin will likely be dead before Tommen comes of age).

Cersei (would be Queen Regent, again).

Varys (good of the realm - Joff would be an absolute nightmare)

Dany (they tried to poison me, I'll poison their pretender king)

Tyrion (while it would almost have to be a crime of passion, Tyrion certainly had motive)

Marjorey (timing unclear, motive would be clearer if she were carrying Joffrey's son - but she had direct access to him immediately prior to the poisoning - and ole girl, Emma Peel, bought the food - a point she made repeatedly)

Obeyron (he's an assassin - and the Martells want revenge)

Jamie is about the only one I would eliminate out of hand - he's already got a chip on his shoulders for being the Kingslayer - and with the loss of his hand, and significant change in personality, it appears killing his king/nephew/son is probably beyond him.

Now - this poisoning is tricky business - who procured/made it?

This issue with the leftovers - I think it is a deliberate distractor - Marjorey wanted to give it to the poor, to which Joffrey consented (recall, he prompted her to make the announcement - he had to have known what it was) - Cersei overrode that and ordered it to be fed to the kennels. So, I guess we would assume that either the poor or the dogs will die if they eat it, right? This overlooks the fact that they fed hundreds of people at this event and, at the present time, it appears that only Joffrey died a slow, agonizing, painful and very satisfying death. So the food/wine is not poisoned - only Joffrey was poisoned.

So, the access to him is literally a short list of about a dozen suspects - clearly the fool knew, as he tried to get Sansa out before the $hit hit the fan. How involved he was remains to be seen. Sansa seems oblivious, but if she's involved she may have been resigned to her fate and was shocked by any attempt to rescue her.

Other than that - Tywin seemed calm, Lady Tyrell seemed calm, Sansa and Mace seemed oblivious - really only Cersei and Jamie even reacted to his distress at first. Cersei's reaction seems sincere, but she's sociopathic, so I'm not sure how much I would infer from that.

We have a stone cold whodoneit on our hands...