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re: Why miss the last free throw on purpose?
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:15 am to Sophandros
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:15 am to Sophandros
There was too much time left to get a couple of dribbles off to even consider missing it on purpose. That strategy should only be employed when there's maybe a second to a second and a half left so that the rebounder has to heave the shot without being able to take any dribbles or gather himself after the rebound.
This post was edited on 4/6/10 at 9:17 am
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Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:17 am to Deactived
It looked like he was going for a Kobe Bryant "catch your own rebound and score 2" kind of play
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:18 am to diemmieeE
quote:
It looked like he was going for a Kobe Bryant "catch your own rebound and score 2" kind of play
who zoubek? i highly doubt it.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:23 am to Sophandros
I do think it's about relative probabilities and I do think that making the free throw would have been the better call
if you make it and assume that Butler can get a set play off and a decent 3 point attempt they have maybe 30-40% chance of making that shot... but there's no guarantee they can get it to an open 3 point shooter (because of Duke's size advantage put Z in the inbounding player and defend the passing lanes)... even if they can make the pass you still have a good shot of fouling before they can even attempt a 3 pointer
On the other hand if you miss it then Butler is pretty much assured of a shot to win the game... Duke does not have position to rebound and will be playing back to avoid giving up a layup... Also they CAN NOT foul in this situation because at best they put someone on the line to tie or win the game
So essentially Butler is going to get a some sort of shot off... and that shot will win the game if it goes in
if you make it and assume that Butler can get a set play off and a decent 3 point attempt they have maybe 30-40% chance of making that shot... but there's no guarantee they can get it to an open 3 point shooter (because of Duke's size advantage put Z in the inbounding player and defend the passing lanes)... even if they can make the pass you still have a good shot of fouling before they can even attempt a 3 pointer
On the other hand if you miss it then Butler is pretty much assured of a shot to win the game... Duke does not have position to rebound and will be playing back to avoid giving up a layup... Also they CAN NOT foul in this situation because at best they put someone on the line to tie or win the game
So essentially Butler is going to get a some sort of shot off... and that shot will win the game if it goes in
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:29 am to geauxtigers2
quote:
that douche Howard
agreed...and what the f was up with that trash stash he was rocking?
i hope i never have to watch that p.o.s. play again
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:36 am to molsusports
quote:
So essentially Butler is going to get a some sort of shot off... and that shot will win the game if it goes in
10-15% chance of going in vs. a 30-40% chance of going in plus (being generous) a 50% chance of winning in OT, which makes a 15%-20% chance of Butler winning.
So giving Butler a 10-15% chance of winning vs. a 15-20% chance of winning tips the scales in favor of missing the FT.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:38 am to Sophandros
quote:
10-15% chance of going in vs. a 30-40% chance of going in plus (being generous) a 50% chance of winning in OT, which makes a 15%-20% chance of Butler winning.
So giving Butler a 10-15% chance of winning vs. a 15-20% chance of winning tips the scales in favor of missing the FT.
i love these percentages you just pull out of thin air. quite amusing.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:38 am to Sophandros
quote:
So giving Butler a 10-15% chance of winning vs. a 15-20% chance of winning tips the scales in favor of missing the FT.
I don't know about all these made up statistics, but it wasn't a bad call either way. Zoubek being a shitty free throw shooter anyway, makes it more understandable IMO.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:41 am to Sophandros
quote:
10-15% chance of going in vs.
no way that's way low... people practice and make half court shots... I think it's a 30% shot
and 30-40% is way high when chances are they can't even get an attempt off if you make the free throw
And even if you consider the odds roughly the same for both scenarios (which they are not... they are worse for Duke if they miss IMO)... in the first situation you lose if they make it... in the second you go to OT if they make it
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:55 am to molsusports
quote:
no way that's way low... people practice and make half court shots... I think it's a 30% shot
Plus
quote:
and 30-40% is way high when chances are they can't even get an attempt off if you make the free throw
Remember, Coach K isn't banking on them taking the shot from half court. He's looking at it being a shot from farther out than half court, which would give you AT BEST a 20% or so chance of making it. When you give them the inbounds play, that's a set piece that THEY have control over and can set up a much better percentage shot, even if that "much better" is only a couple of percentage points better.
Again, give them the lower percentage shot (which still might not go off...) vs. a potentially higher percentage shot PLUS giving them a second life in OT.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 10:05 am to Sophandros
I couldn't make sense of your last post... lost the context in there
Posted on 4/6/10 at 10:17 am to chowds4
quote:
that douche Howard
He was channeling his inner Adam Morrison
That being said, it was a hard screen, but totally legal. Just a great play to run Scheyer into that screen to get himself some room for that shot. Howard was set and standing straight up. Just because the Duke player didn't see it doesn't mean it was illegal. If you want to see an illegal screen, watch Zoubek slide into the defensive player at the top of the key. He does it every single time.
Just saw the replay again. Yes, the screen was absolutely legal. Howard was set for a good two steps.
This post was edited on 4/6/10 at 10:20 am
Posted on 4/6/10 at 10:57 am to Sophandros
quote:
Remember, Coach K isn't banking on them taking the shot from half court. He's looking at it being a shot from farther out than half court, which would give you AT BEST a 20% or so chance of making it. When you give them the inbounds play, that's a set piece that THEY have control over and can set up a much better percentage shot, even if that "much better" is only a couple of percentage points better.
If Butler makes a three after a made FT, Duke has a 50% chance of still winning - in OT.
So it basically comes down to this...was Butler twice as likely to make a shot that they were able inbound and set up? Maybe. I still think I would have made the Free throw and forced Butler to hit a 3 to tie. But I can see missing it on purpose. Plus, if Duke got the offensive rebound game was over.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 10:59 am to lsumatt
quote:
Plus, if Duke got the offensive rebound game was over.
i wish someone could check because i really dont remember but palm said they had no one set up for the rebound.
eta: i just looked. they had one rebounder besides zoubek.
This post was edited on 4/6/10 at 11:03 am
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:03 am to bbap
quote:
i wish someone could check because i really dont remember but palm said they had no one set up for the rebound.
Sure didn't look as though they did. At least it was clear no Duke player was really fighting to get the ball at that point.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:24 am to Y.A. Tittle
looked like Duke was set up just to avoid letting them throw a long pass for a layup
Anyway, from the arbitrary guess department I still don't get how Duke doesn't try to make the free throw
1) if they make the free throw - they are winning by three points. the best Butler can do is force OT with a 3 pointer... Duke would be smart to then foul before they get a shot attempt from 3 (giving Butler 2 free throw attempts with no real time left)... but let's make it simpler and assume Duke is retarded... they don't guard the inbounds player with a much taller Dukie... they don't intercept a long pass, and they don't foul before a shot gets off... Then maybe Butler gets a 3 pointer off to tie
That's a 30-40% shot from 3 maybe... so 60-70% chance that Duke wins outright in regulation... and 15-20% chance they win in OT... and only 15-20% chance they lose in OT... even if they completely screw up defending Butler's last attempt
2) if they miss the free throw Duke is obligated to play passive defense as they did... because they can't foul and give up 2-3 free throws... so it comes down to whether they can hit a long shot for the win
As everyone saw Butler was able to get off a decent shot with the time remaining... and given they practice and make shots from near half court (the shot was just over half court)... I still think that Butler had better than a 20% chance of making that shot... my guess is probably 30% of the time that goes in and Duke loses the game
Anyway, from the arbitrary guess department I still don't get how Duke doesn't try to make the free throw
1) if they make the free throw - they are winning by three points. the best Butler can do is force OT with a 3 pointer... Duke would be smart to then foul before they get a shot attempt from 3 (giving Butler 2 free throw attempts with no real time left)... but let's make it simpler and assume Duke is retarded... they don't guard the inbounds player with a much taller Dukie... they don't intercept a long pass, and they don't foul before a shot gets off... Then maybe Butler gets a 3 pointer off to tie
That's a 30-40% shot from 3 maybe... so 60-70% chance that Duke wins outright in regulation... and 15-20% chance they win in OT... and only 15-20% chance they lose in OT... even if they completely screw up defending Butler's last attempt
2) if they miss the free throw Duke is obligated to play passive defense as they did... because they can't foul and give up 2-3 free throws... so it comes down to whether they can hit a long shot for the win
As everyone saw Butler was able to get off a decent shot with the time remaining... and given they practice and make shots from near half court (the shot was just over half court)... I still think that Butler had better than a 20% chance of making that shot... my guess is probably 30% of the time that goes in and Duke loses the game
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:30 am to molsusports
quote:
my guess is probably 30% of the time that goes in and Duke loses the game
WHOAAAAA. 30%??? A guarded half court+, running, off-balance shot, has a 30% chance of going in? Good 3 point shooters make 30% of their shots (less than half that distance). Plus, you don't know who gets the ball (it could have been an awkward power forward).
If players had a 30% chance of making half-court point shots (guarded), I would have my shooting guard bring the ball up, set up, and drain a half-courter 5-6 times a game.
This post was edited on 4/6/10 at 11:36 am
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:36 am to Deactived
By missing on purpose.. it also removed Duke's ability to play aggressively and possibly foul since they are up only 2... Butler got a much better shot off by Duke missing, Duke could not foul and basically let them have a free outlet pass for a shot that could have easily beaten them... if he makes it (which was only a 55% chance) Duke is up 3, then Duke applies pressure denying the ball and then to the dribbler in the backcourt slowing the progress of the ball dramatically and probably resulting in a much worse shot.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:42 am to yaherrdme
quote:
then Duke applies pressure denying the ball and then to the dribbler in the backcourt slowing the progress of the ball dramatically and probably resulting in a much worse shot.
that is a big assumption. teams have plays drawn up for situations like that on the in bound. With 3.4 seconds left they had time to get up the court and have a decent shot with a great play. Again I think the uncertainty of whether Zoubek makes the free throw or not, had a lot to do with it. If it were Scheyer, I think he would have just gone ahead and made it.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:45 am to yaherrdme
the other part that is bieng left out is that an intentional miss usually creates a longer rebound (as it did) and gives the opponent a little bit of a head start as opposed to maybe having to rebound the ball going to the goal, than having to turn and come out...as it is, it worked, but i think it was the wrong strategy
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