re: What's the latest on Bryce Harper?

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He was 18 in fricking Double A!!!!

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I'm not saying he won't get better chief. Just saying that he seemed to be going for more power than average.

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Just wait and see....he is for real!

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Of course he's "for real."

I'm just not sure if that reality is closer to a .280/30 HR guy or a .300+/45 HR guy.

go back to the OT please

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He will barring injury.

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I agree. But Beltre just isn't a good example. JD Drew is probably a better example. Even though he was a college player. At least he was consistent when he was healthy and on the field.

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As prospects, Harper's got a lot more in common with Beltre -- teenagers who tore apart A ball in every possible way. Also, that K rate is pretty consistent. I'm comparing 18 year old Harper to 18 year old Beltre. At 18, Drew was just beginning college. I think you're reading more into my comp -- at this point in their careers, they look pretty similar and Harper could still go down that path. He also could make a jump and become Griffey. He's on that path, too.

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i doubt any prospect wants to hit his peak in his early 30's.

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Probably not. But it's still a good career. Every prospect wants to be the best player ever.

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Re: Heyward/Wieters. Still too early to write them off from being what people thought they would be.

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Absolutely agree. But I'm a long view kind of guy. I try not to get sucked into the peaks and valleys of any player's development. You're never as good as your highest peak nor as bad as your worst slump. It's the guys who want players to be great right away that are invariably disappointed. I already think Harper's got, what, a 80% chance or so of being a consistent All-Star type player. Maybe even higher. That's pretty damn great. He's got a 10-20% shot at a Hall of Fame career, but let's not be upset if he doesn't meet that. That's a huge number this early in a guy's career.

If he cuts down on his strikeouts, he could be something real special. But he has to do it.

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He may hit 50 in a peak year or two, but he won't EVER hit .350 considering his K ratio and the fact he didn't even sniff .330 in A ball.

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While an extreme example, Chris Davis hit 318 in the minors including 370 last season in AAA. In MLB, he's a 252 hitter and once posted a sub 200 batting average. Now, he strikes out a lot more than Harper, but it gives you an idea of how a high K rate can destroy a prospect in the Show. Davis goes from a 1.000 OPS hitter to a .750 in MLB. And that's in great hitter's parks.

I'd be stunned of Harper ever hits 350. I'd be surprised if he turned out to be a 300 hitter.

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While an extreme example, Chris Davis hit 318 in the minors including 370 last season in AAA. In MLB, he's a 252 hitter and once posted a sub 200 batting average.

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Then you look at guys like by boy Matt Pagnozzi who is a .220 hitter in the minors but is a .310 hitter in MLB. He says Double A is the hardest pitching to hit. Also, I know coaches that have seen Matt play at 28 and Bryce play at 16 and they all agree that Bryce was a better hitter at 16.

To be fair I also know Brandon Wood really well who was one of the best players ever in the minors and can't do shite in MLB.

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His glove is awesome. Generally always has been.


but his bat, come on. For a sabermetric guy its funny you never mention his OPS. or adjusted OPS. and all that dandy stuff.

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HIs career OPS+ is tied with Frankie Fisch, so clearly he's a HoF.

I dont. I have heard multiple people say that it is because you have guys that can throw the shite out of the ball and have no control but I don't know which is hardest.