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WAR in baseball- why cant there just be one formila that everyone uses?
Posted on 9/18/18 at 12:35 am
Posted on 9/18/18 at 12:35 am
This is somewhat random and there’s possibly an obvious answer that I’m just not aware of...but can someone explain to me why MLB doesn’t create/use a certain formula so that there can just be 1 thing everyone uses?
It bothers me that it seems like fWAR and bWAR get used like half the time each and there are some instances where there’s a noticeable difference in a players WAR between fangraphs and bbref. I know they put a different emphasis on certain things but still why can’t we just choose 1
I’m not even saying MLB has to make their own...just pick either fWAR or bWAR and make that the universal WAR stat if they don’t wanna do it themselves
It bothers me that it seems like fWAR and bWAR get used like half the time each and there are some instances where there’s a noticeable difference in a players WAR between fangraphs and bbref. I know they put a different emphasis on certain things but still why can’t we just choose 1
I’m not even saying MLB has to make their own...just pick either fWAR or bWAR and make that the universal WAR stat if they don’t wanna do it themselves
5
Posted on 9/18/18 at 4:26 am to 5 Deep
Why can't fans stop being lazy and look at the stats themselves and determine value instead of letting fangraphs or bbref do it for them
Posted on 9/18/18 at 5:20 am to 5 Deep
It’s baseball. Stat manipulation is part of the fun.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 6:11 am to 5 Deep
Because determining some things, like individual defense, the value of catcher framing and how much control pitchers have over balls in play is really difficult.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 8:22 am to The Seaward
Yep.
I personally prefer fWAR because of their use of UZR when evaluating defense. I think using defensive runs saved(bWAR) can skew the defensive part of the equation significantly, and thats why there is a huge difference in WAR from the two different sites.
I personally prefer fWAR because of their use of UZR when evaluating defense. I think using defensive runs saved(bWAR) can skew the defensive part of the equation significantly, and thats why there is a huge difference in WAR from the two different sites.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 9:38 am to devils1854
Because no one has the slightest idea how to properly quantify defensive value of an individual player.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 12:10 pm to Baloo
I think using UZR and DRS are better alternatives than pretending that everyone plays defense at the same level.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 12:29 pm to DallasTiger45
WAR? wHIP? No thanks
Posted on 9/18/18 at 12:35 pm to Baloo
Yup. Defensive metrics are still largely terrible
Posted on 9/18/18 at 4:36 pm to JEAUXBLEAUX
How is WHIP any different than ERA or BA/OBP
Posted on 9/18/18 at 5:02 pm to 5 Deep
Because every formula has flaws.
Posted on 9/18/18 at 9:31 pm to Overbrook
Most of these super advanced metrics are hogwash. Show me things like ops and be with risp and a pitchers whip and opponents ops and that's about as deep into metrics as you need.
This post was edited on 9/18/18 at 9:32 pm
Posted on 9/19/18 at 12:04 am to TheeRealCarolina
Things like WAR are a bunch of statistical mumbo jumbo
WHIP is a legitimate metric though.
WHIP is a legitimate metric though.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 12:07 am to 5 Deep
Because some people have a fundamentally different view on what they find valuable
Think of it this way. Baseball reference likes to pay attention to what actually happened. Their WAR reflects this. Fangraphs likes to pay attention to what should have happened. Their WAR reflects this. And baseball prospectus likes to look at what should have happened for what should have happened and that's what WARP reflects
Its subjective because it's not made up of any one thing. Find the one you like and understand there are pros and cons to all versions
Think of it this way. Baseball reference likes to pay attention to what actually happened. Their WAR reflects this. Fangraphs likes to pay attention to what should have happened. Their WAR reflects this. And baseball prospectus likes to look at what should have happened for what should have happened and that's what WARP reflects
Its subjective because it's not made up of any one thing. Find the one you like and understand there are pros and cons to all versions
Posted on 9/19/18 at 12:07 am to Baloo
That as well
Posted on 9/19/18 at 12:10 am to Baloo
quote:
Because no one has the slightest idea how to properly quantify defensive value of an individual player.
Counter point
I absolutely love watching baseball, but how many games have I seen Paul DeJong play SS? Maybe two games.
How many games have these FG/BA guys watched? All of them. Therefore, I am more inclined to support what they say about defensive metrics....since its their jobs. Is it perfect? No, but its the best that we have, and its much better than baseball writers giving Rafael Palmiero a Gold Glove award at 1B for playing roughly 40 games there.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 12:11 am to devils1854
I think each team has much better ways of quantifying defensive performance and I would love to see a leak of like the Dodgers or the Astros defensive metrics
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 12:13 am
Posted on 9/19/18 at 12:16 am to devils1854
Also, statistical mumbo jumbo? Maybe look up some of the stats, and you would see that they are not bad
quote:
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. It was created by Tom Tango (and notably used in “The Book”) to measure a hitter’s overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event.
wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single? In short, no) and again ignores other ways of reaching base. On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8). In short, OPS is asking the right question, but we can arrive at a more accurate number quite easily.
Simply put, OPS and wOBA will lead you to very similar conclusions in most situations, but if you care about determining how well a player contributes to run scoring, wOBA is a more accurate representation of that contribution. OPS undervalues getting on base relative to hitting for extra bases and does not properly weigh each type of extra base hit.
The wOBA formula for the 2013 season was:
wOBA = (0.690×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.888×1B + 1.271×2B + 1.616×3B +
2.101×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)
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