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Posted on 7/5/17 at 5:01 pm to
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
97636 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

hate agreeing with SDV but two days ago the narrative was that all these vets were lining up to play next to Lonzo and to be a lakers for 1 year deals. Now no one wants that and the lakers and you're praising it all the same




Lakers fans are in denial that they are the new Clippers
Posted by David Ricky
Hailing From Parts Unknown
Member since Sep 2015
25936 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

I hate agreeing with SDV but two days ago the narrative was that all these vets were lining up to play next to Lonzo and to be a lakers for 1 year deals. Now no one wants that and the lakers and you're praising it all the same



George Hill and Waiters were really the only two impact players that had any interest in a one year deal. WCA accurately predicted Hill was using us as leverage for a bigger contract elsewhere. Waiters wasn't going to happen unless Hayward signed with Miami.

I'm completely fine with letting the young players develop and maintain as much cap space as possible for 2018. Making a move just to make one is fricking stupid and the reason why Jim Buss and Mitch are no longer in charge
Posted by GeauxAggie972
Poterbin Residence
Member since Aug 2009
29542 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 6:27 pm to
What's funnier is a Clippers fan bragging because they're A.) better than a rebuilding Lakers team and B.) making the playoffs even though they haven't done shite in the postseason.

Do you pull for the Buffalo Bills too?
Posted by kadillak
Member since Nov 2007
7641 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 6:39 pm to
Looks like Demetrius Jackson might be the second Boston casualty after Olynik

Increasing rumors that Smart may be OKC bound
This post was edited on 7/5/17 at 6:42 pm
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150065 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 6:47 pm to
quote:

I hate agreeing with SDV but two days ago the narrative was that all these vets were lining up to play next to Lonzo and to be a lakers for 1 year deals
what
Posted by Fus0623
Lafayette, LA
Member since Jan 2015
91683 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 8:29 pm to
Utah about to get some compensation
quote:

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn Jazz, Celtics engage on Gordon Hayward sign-and-trade for Jae Crowder. Latest story with
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36993 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 8:44 pm to
I think Boston would want some compensation for including Crowder. Otherwise they can make another trade to dump Crowder and receive an asset, then just sign Hayward outright.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35379 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 8:48 pm to
quote:

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn Jazz, Celtics engage on Gordon Hayward sign-and-trade for Jae Crowder. Latest story with
I've been comparing the statistics of Hayward and Crowder, and Crowder has a better real +/- in each of the last 2 season, while Hayward has a better box +/-. Averaging them all out, Hayward is about +0.3 points better per 100 possessions.

What becomes staggering though is the on-off statistics. Last season Crowder was +7.8 with an on-off of +11.4 during the regular season, and he was -2 with an on-off +2.4 during the playoffs. Hayward was +6.6 with an on-off of +5.7 during the regular season, and he was -8.3 with an on-off of -17.7 during the playoffs.

During the 7 game Clippers series (GSW could skew those stats) Hayward was -10 on and his team +18 when he was off the court. In fact, he only had a positive +/- in 2 of the games. On the other hand, during the Chicago (6 games) and Washington (7 games) series Crowder was +52 while his team was -4 when he was off the court.

Crowder is set to make 21 million over the NEXT 3 SEASONS COMBINED, while Hayward is set to make about 32 million PER SEASON.

25 million dollars more per season seems awfully high for essentially swapping those two players. I don't think Hayward provides as much benefit as people seem to think, especially at those salary figures.
This post was edited on 7/5/17 at 8:53 pm
Posted by braud2go
Member since Nov 2010
986 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 8:54 pm to
I get what you're saying but the numbers wouldn't be that similar if the opposing team would gameplan around Crowder like they do Hayward in Utah. Not saying Hayward is gunna finish top 10 in scoring, but IT's presence is gunna give him a lot more looks.
Posted by PrimeTime Money
Houston, Texas, USA
Member since Nov 2012
27983 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

Lakers fans are in denial that they are the new Clippers
This website ( LINK) has the over/under wins for the Clippers next season at 34.5.

The over/under for the Lakers is at 36.5.

The Clippers may be back to being the Clippers.
Posted by wildtigercat93
Member since Jul 2011
116124 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:01 pm to
You're taking a lot of liberty with some small sample sizes there.


If Utah called last year and offered Hayward for Crowder straight up, does Boston (or any team) take a half a second to say yes?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
97636 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:07 pm to
quote:

This website ( LINK) has the over/under wins for the Clippers next season at 34.5.

The over/under for the Lakers is at 36.5.

The Clippers may be back to being the Clippers.



I guess that settles it
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35379 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:08 pm to
quote:

I get what you're saying but the numbers wouldn't be that similar if the opposing team would gameplan around Crowder like they do Hayward in Utah. Not saying Hayward is gunna finish top 10 in scoring, but IT's presence is gunna give him a lot more looks.
Probably. At the same time, with them losing Olynyk, they are losing 2 players who are better defenders than Hayward (not saying he's a poor defender).

So their offensive will improve, but with IT already being a horrible defender, their defense is likely to get worse, and they were already worse at defense than offense (largely because of IT). So unless Tatum and Brown progress quickly, they will probably be less deep as well.

I just think the potential of Hayward's addition is not significant, expecially paying him 20 million more than the two players they are losing.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
32253 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:11 pm to
quote:

buckeye_vol



I get what you're saying, but at the same time Hayward has the ceiling of a #1 option while Crowder was 3-4th (depends where you place him before or after Horford). Teams will plan for Hayward, they plan for IT > Bradley/Horford > Crowder.

Boston needs the star power and they have 2 young buck SFs on the roster who have higher ceilings than Crowder so he's he odd man out.

For value:production, Crowder cannot be beat. The issue is, he's limited in what he can do offensively and that's why he's always been available when they've tried to upgrade the SF position.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35379 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:14 pm to
quote:

If Utah called last year and offered Hayward for Crowder straight up, does Boston (or any team) take a half a second to say yes?
Of course they take it, but he's not worth 25 million more dollars than Crowder and 20 million more dollars than Crowder and Olynyk combined.

Frankly, I think in the end, Hayward's addition will provide minimal benefit. The key will be Tatum's and Brown's development, which would have been the case anyway.

Now if they had gotten Butler (especially) or George instead, they would have been far better off since they are better players (especially Butler), and address that major defensive weakness because IT is such a terrible defender.
Posted by wildtigercat93
Member since Jul 2011
116124 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

Of course they take it, but he's not worth 25 million more dollars than Crowder and 20 million more dollars than Crowder and Olynyk combined.


That's a contradictory statement.

And he's better than both of those players. He's a top 5-6 SF in the league in which you need elite wings.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35379 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:19 pm to
quote:

I get what you're saying, but at the same time Hayward has the ceiling of a #1 option while Crowder was 3-4th (depends where you place him before or after Horford). Teams will plan for Hayward, they plan for IT > Bradley/Horford > Crowder.
You're probably right, but Crowder also had a ridiculous 57.2% EFG last season, but his usage was only 17. I think IT (34 usage), makes the other players appear less capable offensively, especially with only 5.9 assists.
quote:

Boston needs the star power and they have 2 young buck SFs on the roster who have higher ceilings than Crowder so he's he odd man out.
But the potential was contingent on then with or without Hayward.

Look I'm obviously biased as a Cavs fan, but I would have been far more worried about Boston if they for George or Butler. I think Hayward is far less valuable than those two, specifically Butler.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
32253 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:35 pm to
quote:

But the potential was contingent on then with or without Hayward.



I think/take it this way, you are never going to contend with Crowder even while Tatum/Brown develop or even after they develop. Truth is, you probably aren't contending with Hayward either while they develop, but your ceiling allows you to contend because Hayward is better than Crowder.

In the next 3 years, Brown/Tatum should improve and may/may not reach their ceiling. By that time, Crowder is a free agent and your ceiling with him is a B. While 3 years from now, your ceiling is an A with Hayward.

The benefit of having him now is that you develop a chemistry with IT, Bradley, Brown/Tatum, Hayward, Horford to contend

Its a move to contend in 2019 or 2020, it isn't for now.
Posted by Boomshockalocka
Member since Feb 2004
59893 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:47 pm to
Gordon Hayward. His score frequency allowed vs ISOs was a very respectable 43.1%. For comparison, Kawhi's was 46.5%. #Celtics
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35379 posts
Posted on 7/5/17 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

That's a contradictory statement.
How is that a contradictory statement. He will make 25 million more than Crowder, and since they are also losing Olynyk, he will make 20 million more than if they kept them both.
quote:

And he's better than both of those players.
He's better than both, but he's not significantly better than Crowder (who has had a higher real +/- each of the last two seasons). Even then, when you lose two players, you lose the value of both players.

Crowder & Olynk had a combined 10.8 win shares, 8.6 wins above replacement, and 14.1 real =/- wins (RPM) wins last season. Hayward had 10.4 win shares, 10.7 wins above replacement, and 9.5 RPM wins last season.

So for 22 million dollars more, Hayward is worth 0.1 fewer win shares, 2.1 more wins above replacement, and 4.6 fewer RPM wins. Again, maybe those minutes will be more valuable next season, but that's a lot of money for data that suggest limited value added.
quote:

He's a top 5-6 SF in the league in which you need elite wings.
He was top 6 at best last season. Including Jimmy Butler (espn lists him as SG; but he played more minutes as SF), he was 10th in real =/-, 6th in PER, and 6th in box =/- among small forwards.

He's a top 25 to 30 players overall. So he should add value, but 32 million is a lot of money when you consider the players who were given up and their salaries.
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