re: The ATL Thread Offseason Thread

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Freddie is recruiting Bryce Harper hard and has been for the past couple years. Said he wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s here next year

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the only way I could see this is if Bryce is willing to take a "prove it" deal since he stunk this past season. Like a 1 year 25 mil type deal with MAYBE a player option.

I don't think anyone is going to want to pay him what he thinks he's worth right now

what

He hasn’t even entered his prime years. You’re looking at 30+ million for 6-8 years with an out clause built in. I think you’re kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

The MLBTR lead writer indicated yesterday that he thinks 10 years/$370MM is light on both years and AAV. Harper himself indicated that 8 years wouldn’t be close to long enough when asked about a fan’s sign that said “8 more years” at the Nats last game. I’m guessing he gets something like 12/$420 with several opt outs.

I’d love to have him but I think we will be priced out.

As enticing as it sounds, Harper is no Trout.

Just don't think he is really worth, to a team without unlimited funds, what he is going to be.

2015 Harper, yes.

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It's closer to $80 millionper Mark Bowman

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That article is from last December. For instance, it does not factor Darren O'Day's contract into the equation (he is owed 9 million next year). Kevin Gausman made over $5 million this year and will probably make more in arbitration or an agreement with the club next year as well.

Those are just 2 examples of why we will not have 80 million to spend.

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That article is from last December. For instance, it does not factor Darren O'Day's contract into the equation (he is owed 9 million next year). Kevin Gausman made over $5 million this year and will probably make more in arbitration or an agreement with the club next year as well.

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McCarthy is also coming off the books ($10 million) and perhaps Markakis ($15 million)...I've emailed Bowman for an update on his numbers but Im 90% sure that Gausman and O Day won't change the outlook from $80 million to $40 million.I stated $60 to $70 million in an earlier and I think falls closer to those numbers.

The thing that should be the most concerning about Albies left handed is after a slow start, he hit well, looked like even discounting the unsustainable power (because of how he got pitched to to start), he was about a .770ish OPS bat left handed, had about 500-600 PAs, if not more around an .800 OPS batting lefty combined from 2017 through 2018, then all of a sudden, he’s as bad as a pitcher batting lefty for a pretty long stretch?

That tells me there’s more than just being young and inconsistent going on there. Young and inconsistent would look like a .625-.650 OPS on that side. It’s enough PAs that he deserves to state his case on that being real instead of what we saw after the ASB and work with Seitzer to try to correct probable flaws left handed over the offseason (he has been a miracle worker and his work with Acuna is how we saw the MiLB player of the year Acuna appear over the second half) and in ST but concerning enough that if he can’t, he might have to try to bat right handed only. Snitker did have a great line though about Albies being the same age of a college junior.

FWIW: Camargo is questionable batting lefty too based on the numbers. It looked great this year but is propped up by a high walk rate that dropped after May and the underlying numbers look like we need to see more there.

Projected arb raises and O’Day and Flowers account for about $40 million in additional payroll beyond the guaranteed deals that were in place last December. The payroll also jumped up about $7M to $130 from $123 in ‘17. That’s what takes you from $80 to $47.