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re: OFFICIAL Week 8 CFB bet thread™

Posted on 10/15/12 at 3:22 pm to
Posted by Htown Tiger
Houston
Member since Sep 2005
2326 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 3:22 pm to
They want money on A&M +3, thus why they are offering the even juice.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 3:23 pm to
No
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18011 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 3:27 pm to
Got it, not sure how I looked at it the other way.
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25638 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 3:38 pm to
You can predict some line movements is if you see higher juice on a line.

So say Team A is -7 at -120, it stands to reason that the line should move to -7.5 at -110 sometime soon.

Nowhere near a constant rule, but it can be a good indication if the line is gonna move sometime soon.
Posted by OnTheBrink
TN
Member since Mar 2012
5419 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

I would be very careful about that State -20 vs MTSU. We have a history of playing close games against inferior opponents at home in recent years.


I would agree with this....... Until MTSU Coach Rick Stockstill announced today that Benny Cunningham is out for the season.

LINK

Cunningham had two 200+ yard games in his last 3, one against Georgia Tech and 9 rushing TD's in those 3.

Bet accordingly.
This post was edited on 10/15/12 at 3:47 pm
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25638 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 3:56 pm to
Might be a nice look at the UNDER now.
Posted by OnTheBrink
TN
Member since Mar 2012
5419 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 4:00 pm to
I still feel like this is a perfect sandwich game for State, coming off "big" win against UT and looking ahead to Bama, but Cunningham being out defintely hurts Middle's chances.
Posted by dgtiger3
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5703 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 4:27 pm to
quote:

That doesn't seem like enough points for ASU, but I like them bc of the home dog on Thurs factor. Think the line will go up?


My numbers have Arizona State 24-21 at home on Thursday night. I went 9-7 on the sides I listed last week, so I'm still tweaking and looking for spots to "improve" my predictions, but they definitely have some substance.

Arizona State's defensive line has played really physical in its first 6 games (which is what new coach Todd Grahams defenses are known for), they are leading the country in tackles for loss per game, and number 2 in the country in sacks per game. The teams that have given Oregon trouble in the past three years (Auburn, Cal, LSU, Boise) all were pretty physical at the line of scrimmage.
Only thing that worries me a little about the ASU defense is they have given up a few big running plays this year, and Oregon's speedy backs are a nightmare if you give them space or miss tackles.

I think Sun Devils +9 at home is a lot of points to work with, they will try and slow the game down a little from the shootouts Oregon is used to.
This post was edited on 10/15/12 at 4:42 pm
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25638 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 4:50 pm to
Totals are coming out at some books.

LINK
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
48108 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 5:13 pm to
9-8 overall (6-7 better bets) last week with a couple backdoors in the waning moments of the 4th quarters: Ohio State & ULM.

..and Ohio U giving up 14 unanswered in the 4th.

Meh.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82043 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 5:21 pm to
Waiting in hopes USCe moved to +3.5
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
81898 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 8:23 pm to
I think LSU under is a lock this week
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 8:51 pm to
Anybody looked @ tomorrow night's game?
Posted by LSUintheNW
At your mom’s house
Member since Aug 2009
36777 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 8:55 pm to
quote:

Arizona State's defensive line has played really physical in its first 6 games (which is what new coach Todd Grahams defenses are known for), they are leading the country in tackles for loss per game, and number 2 in the country in sacks per game. The teams that have given Oregon trouble in the past three years (Auburn, Cal, LSU, Boise) all were pretty physical at the line of scrimmage.


ASU is playing better defensively but they have not played a good offense yet. We will see how good they are on Thursday.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 8:56 pm to
quote:

screw last week


Last week was goooood. Mr. Teddy Bridgewater made me happy.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 8:56 pm to
quote:

New Mexico saved my week last night.


New Mexico and Louisville were Free Money.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

New Mexico St. +30 at Utah St - Is NMSU THAT bad?


They're atrocious. I'm not sure I would mess with it.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 9:07 pm to
quote:

I think I will just tail this NCAA 13 simulator for the rest of the year, the record of that thing is unreal


Wow that thing ain't half bad
Posted by Cowbells
USA
Member since Aug 2012
554 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 9:09 pm to
I did. I posted this last night on Week 7's thread:

quote:

ULL-North Tx.

I have no clue what the lines are going to be. But I like ULL (if it's less than a TD) and ULL team total over if it's around 30 or so. North Texas is very similar to Troy in their style of play (atleast, it looked like it in the one Troy-UNT game I watched because I had an unit on Troy). ULL put 37 at Troy.

I've watched ULL play 3 times since I bet on ULL. I had ULL(+7.5 at Troy); ULL/OSU over 73.5 & ULL (-7 vs FIU). Their offense looked good in all 3 games and won my bets. Hudspeth is a legit coach (Assistant at State before he took the ULL gig).


State's future coach, Hud is going to put some points and win this one by atleast a TD!

I kept my word and bet on ULL -4 & ULL TT -30.

Week 8 bets so far:
1* ULL -4 vs UNT
1* ULL TT o30
1* LSU -3 vs A&M (Can't resist)
1* Colorado +41.5 vs USC
1* BYU +14.5 vs ND
Posted by dgtiger3
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5703 posts
Posted on 10/15/12 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

ASU is playing better defensively but they have not played a good offense yet. We will see how good they are on Thursday.


I agree, it is the give and take you have the first half of the season. Texas Tech had only played OU, and got steamrolled, so no one thought they were any good. Obviously this line respects Oregon a whole lot more than that line respected West Virginia, and that is mostly due to the fact that Oregons defense actually looks pretty good.

It will be interesting to see the line movement and the public percentages throughout the week but this is definitely a test for Oregon, I know I will be on ASU barring something strange.
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