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re: Official Week 6 NFL Bet Thread
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:59 pm to PapaPogey
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:59 pm to PapaPogey
quote:
Niners still have the second ranked defense in the league, and the running game is starting to come around (3rd overall). Rams ranked 29th in rush defense and Kaepernick is 3-0 in MNF games.
Right, so why is everyone on St Louis?
3
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:05 pm to Tiger1242
quote:
Right, so why is everyone on St Louis?
18% of the total wagers are on St. Louis, so "everyone" is a bit of a stretch...
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:05 pm to ChemE in the OP
Everyone in this thread is what I meant
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:05 pm to ChemE in the OP
Adding: 1U KANSAS CITY +4 -110
Record is on a different computer. Will repost when next week's thread is started.
Record is on a different computer. Will repost when next week's thread is started.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:07 pm to Tiger1242
It's really a simple decision, are you a "common sense" or contrarian type bettor. That's all there is to it. Unless you're a "breakdown the matchup guy" and in that case good luck in general... Vegas models are better than yours.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:09 pm to Tiger1242
Because they're nothing more than sheep
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:10 pm to ChemE in the OP
When dealing with the NFL, absolutely. It's possible for even a small time bettor to know more than certain books about niche sports or conferences; no one wants to study those conferences or sports though
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:12 pm to PapaPogey
ok Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:14 pm to PapaPogey
I've never been a blind fader, but when I see a weird line it makes me look harder at it to try and see what they're seeing and if I'm comfortable with it, I go with it. Yesterday shite went bad, but for the most part you'll find betting against the public is a smarter venture than believing you know more than "stupid oddsmakers"
This post was edited on 10/13/14 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:16 pm to Carson123987
Steelers SU = Loss
Cowboys +9 = Win
Giants +3 = Loss
Cowboys +9 = Win
Giants +3 = Loss
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:18 pm to BilJ
quote:
Yesterday shite went bad, but for the most part you'll find betting against the public is a smarter venture than believing you know more than "stupid oddsmakers"
thank you
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:19 pm to BilJ
Right. The underdogs looked really bad this week. 
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:23 pm to PapaPogey
quote:
Right. The underdogs looked really bad this week.
Not really, the Jets and Raiders were the two biggest public fades of the week and both should've covered. Those two games and the Rams were the only games where one team was receiving less than 20% of the wagers.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:25 pm to ChemE in the OP
Shoulda, coulda, woulda. We could say that about a heck of a lot of games
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:27 pm to ChemE in the OP
last season on MNF, I went against the sharps and made a nice bet on a punchless rams team to get whopped by seahawks...it did not end well
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:29 pm to PapaPogey
Well, bottom line is I'm 55.7% over my last 600 wagers and contrarian most of the time... Do what you want but it's obvious you're a troll and will be ignored on my part moving forward. Good luck!
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:32 pm to ChemE in the OP
A troll because I'm not following your lead and stating my opinion with facts as to why I am picking differently than you ? Shut the frick up dude 
Psa: don't question chem E or he will cry
Eta2:
Psa: don't question chem E or he will cry
Eta2:
This post was edited on 10/13/14 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:44 pm to ChemE in the OP
I'm not hating on your method at all, it works well and you risk way more money than I do.
I will say that I don't see how blindly betting against the public is any better than blindly betting with the public. I just think there is a middle ground where you look at all trends and make an informed decision
I will say that I don't see how blindly betting against the public is any better than blindly betting with the public. I just think there is a middle ground where you look at all trends and make an informed decision
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:50 pm to Tiger1242
There are definitely spots were you want to avoid...
For example, if 80% of the money is on one side but the line moves 4 points then the move is legitimate and there's no play.
But... If 80% of the money is on one side but the line holds or moves opposite then you know there's big money on the short side.
So, what you're looking at is the wager % and the line movement. The % alone isn't as useful. Are you familiar with RLM?
For example, if 80% of the money is on one side but the line moves 4 points then the move is legitimate and there's no play.
But... If 80% of the money is on one side but the line holds or moves opposite then you know there's big money on the short side.
So, what you're looking at is the wager % and the line movement. The % alone isn't as useful. Are you familiar with RLM?
Posted on 10/13/14 at 2:51 pm to Tiger1242
quote:
Right, so why is everyone on St Louis?
People are remembering that Seahawks game on Monday Night last year where they were a yard away from winning.
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