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re: OFFICIAL Week 5 CFB bet thread™

Posted on 9/25/12 at 9:23 pm to
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16910 posts
Posted on 9/25/12 at 9:23 pm to
Thinking about teasing Washington to +14 and the under to 57
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25716 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 12:37 am to
Liking Georgia more and more as I look at it.

ETA: Richt hasn't ruled out Rambo and Ogletree being back this week.
This post was edited on 9/26/12 at 12:39 am
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16910 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 2:28 am to
Thoughts on this ML parlay?

U Washington
Arizona St
Ohio St
Minnesota

$5 - $265
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 8:55 am to
What's everyone's thoughts on the Baylor @ WVU game? Currently sitting WVU (-12.5).
Posted by wish i was tebow
The Golf Board
Member since Feb 2009
46124 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:04 am to
Over
Posted by alfredblueforheisman
Member since Aug 2010
974 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:22 am to
quote:

What's everyone's thoughts on the Baylor @ WVU game? Currently sitting WVU (-12.5).



Like WVU playing at home to cover that. But WV burned me last week. Which obviously means they will be pissed and score 140 points this week right? lol

What about Stanford at -6.5 now? Really think Washington has no answer for Stanfords power running game, see when they played LSU.
This post was edited on 9/26/12 at 9:23 am
Posted by Lunchbox48
Member since Feb 2009
941 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:23 am to
In no way knocking anybody's picks...

Just wondering why everybody is on Washington? LSU pushed them around on both lines pretty badly. I was just assuming a physical team like Stanford will do the same.

However, if sport spy is correct, there has been some RLM on Stanford here against heavy public action on Stanford. And there's the Thursday night home dog scenario.

Can't get my head around this one.

Posted by The Egg
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2004
83706 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:24 am to
i got UW on my pickem sheet to cover that 6.5
Posted by alfredblueforheisman
Member since Aug 2010
974 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:25 am to
quote:

HoLeInOnEr05


ML parlays have a higher payout than spread parlays?
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:27 am to
quote:

Like WVU playing at home to cover that. But WV burned me last week. Which obviously means they will be pissed and score 140 points this week right?


Burned me as well. Maryland, a team I don't hold in high regard offensively (or at all), scored points on that defense. Baylor won't be able to stop them, but can the WVU stop Baylor enough to cover. I'm gonna see where the line goes but the over seems like the play here.
Posted by alfredblueforheisman
Member since Aug 2010
974 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:30 am to
quote:

And there's the Thursday night home dog scenario.


Thought about that one too, but both teams were off this past Saturday, so it's not a short week for either of them.
Posted by DovaVol
Member since Dec 2008
2198 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:32 am to
quote:

ML parlays have a higher payout than spread parlays?


Depends on the odds you get. Say for example last week you had UF ML over UK that was probably like -65000. That won't pay much, and if you have a bunch of them in a parlay you're probably betting like $5 to only win like $8. However, if you throw in some of the games people expect to be closer the odds will be more in the -300 range and you will win more. Obviously if you pick the + side of any ML you're going to do well regardless though.

Hopefully that makes sense
This post was edited on 9/26/12 at 9:33 am
Posted by Lunchbox48
Member since Feb 2009
941 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:35 am to
It's down to -6 too. I never bet on the public heavy side with reverse line movement. But I just don't see Stanford not covering 6.

But I can't not bet on a Thursday night college game
Posted by alfredblueforheisman
Member since Aug 2010
974 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:35 am to
quote:

Depends on the odds you get. Say for example last week you had UF ML over UK that was probably like -65000. That won't pay much, and if you have a bunch of them in a parlay you're probably betting like $5 to only win like $8. However, if you throw in some of the games people expect to be closer the odds will be more in the -300 range and you will win more. Obviously if you pick the + side of any ML you're going to do well regardless though.

Hopefully that makes sense



Yes that makes sense. halfway through reading it I realized that was a stupid question, haha. Thanks
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16910 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 10:02 am to
Yea, just a little something to try and catch up. Figured with all of the upsets, why not pick a few live dogs?
Posted by 1fairbank
Smells Funny
Member since Sep 2011
1374 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 11:36 am to
I've taken these picks with the following thoughts, use at your own discretion:

Arizona St +2.5 at Cal
ASU had a 30 pt win over Utah last week, which was supposed to have the toughest defense in the Pac. They lost on the road to Missouri, which I think a lot of people are underrating. That said, Cal is in a situation just as noteworthy as Auburn last week (coming back for a home game after a tough loss, losing season, chance to knock off a 3-1 team).

Minnesota +6.5 at Iowa
Minnesota is 4-0, kept Syracuse to 10 pts, and has survived a tough 3OT road trip vs UNLV. Iowa is 2-2 with two home losses to Central Michigan and Iowa State, and honestly, I don't think they are the team they had been in years previous. I expect the game to be close, which makes me want to take the points.

I'm also looking for thoughts about Mizzou/UCF, because while I don't see Mizzou losing, that seems like the definite square pick.
Posted by Tornado Alley
Member since Mar 2012
28503 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 11:48 am to
How about this ten point teaser?

Louisville (0) at Southern Miss
South Carolina (-10.5) at Kentucky
Tennessee at Georgia (-3)

Also, what are our consensus "picks" of the week?
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16910 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 11:57 am to
I would tease the dogs up... they don't have to win to cover
Posted by DovaVol
Member since Dec 2008
2198 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

Arizona St +2.5 at Cal ASU had a 30 pt win over Utah last week, which was supposed to have the toughest defense in the Pac. They lost on the road to Missouri, which I think a lot of people are underrating. That said, Cal is in a situation just as noteworthy as Auburn last week (coming back for a home game after a tough loss, losing season, chance to knock off a 3-1 team).


I really like this one. My take on it is that when ASU's offense is rolling it's hard to stop. Cal got popped by USC last week so could/should be reeling a bit. ASU is also 4-0 ATS this year, whereas Cal is 1-3.
Posted by alfredblueforheisman
Member since Aug 2010
974 posts
Posted on 9/26/12 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

I'm also looking for thoughts about Mizzou/UCF, because while I don't see Mizzou losing, that seems like the definite square pick.



I really like Mizzou in that game also
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