- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Official Week 4 NFL Bet Thread
Posted on 9/30/15 at 6:49 pm to SirWinston
Posted on 9/30/15 at 6:49 pm to SirWinston
Anyone like Piitsburgh +3 at home vs the Ravens?
3
Posted on 9/30/15 at 7:20 pm to jac1280
quote:
Anyone like Piitsburgh +3 at home vs the Ravens?
Not with Vick starting.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 7:21 pm to Kill Switch
Hard to go against Pitt with all those skills position players. But Vick is garbage now idk. Might not play this one
Posted on 9/30/15 at 8:52 pm to SirWinston
Full Week 4 Card ~
Bucs +3.5
Redskins +3.5 (2x Normal Bet)
Niners +9
Good luck!
Bucs +3.5
Redskins +3.5 (2x Normal Bet)
Niners +9
Good luck!
Posted on 10/1/15 at 10:29 am to ChemE in the OP
Redskins +3 Locked in
Thursday Leans
Pitt +3
KC +4
STL +7
TB +3
I see where you're coming from, I just dont have the balls
Thursday Leans
Pitt +3
KC +4
STL +7
TB +3
quote:
Niners +9
I see where you're coming from, I just dont have the balls
Posted on 10/1/15 at 1:09 pm to Carson123987
It meets all the criteria... Buy low on Niners, sell high on Pack, letdown and look-past spot for Pack, books need Niners. Etc, etc, etc.
I know it's disgusting but gotta roll with what has worked for me over the years.
I know it's disgusting but gotta roll with what has worked for me over the years.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 1:19 pm to ChemE in the OP
yup.
i think public gets buried this weekend in nfl
i think public gets buried this weekend in nfl
Posted on 10/1/15 at 3:19 pm to Carson123987
Only on Was +3.5 & Tampa +3.5 so far. Not sure what else I want.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 3:47 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
It meets all the criteria... Buy low on Niners, sell high on Pack, letdown and look-past spot for Pack, books need Niners. Etc, etc, etc
Chem can you explain what exactly you mean by this for the novice bettors? Are you playing both?
Posted on 10/1/15 at 3:59 pm to Howyouluhdat
I feel like these factors are baked into the numbers just like sharps think things like "Aaron Rodgers homecoming, snubbed by 49ers, 0-3 against 49ers" are baked into the numbers. He's the best QB in NFL history and he's going to have a massive chip on his shoulder the difference between a 7 point spread and a 9.5 spread is negligible at best.
All this overthinking and graphing... "One team will cover and one team will not" is true of every sporting event ever played - NFL favorites have covered more games than NFL underdogs this season.
The guys who consistently bet on nothing but underdogs or fade the public are no better than Joe Schmoe who consistently bets only on favorites. The people who win the LVSupercontest bet on favorites and dogs alike. The guys who get profiled on "60 minutes" or on Bill Simmons bet on favorites and underdogs and steam alike.
We also have a clear hierarchy of the top 8 or so teams: NE, GB, SF, healthy Dallas, healthy Denver, Arizona, maybe Atlanta maybe Seattle, etc. also 8 crap teams like NO, TB, Cle, Jax, Ten, Chi, SF, etc.
This hierarchy coupled with super tight NFL lines makes Wong teasers (or variations thereof) a good play.
All this overthinking and graphing... "One team will cover and one team will not" is true of every sporting event ever played - NFL favorites have covered more games than NFL underdogs this season.
The guys who consistently bet on nothing but underdogs or fade the public are no better than Joe Schmoe who consistently bets only on favorites. The people who win the LVSupercontest bet on favorites and dogs alike. The guys who get profiled on "60 minutes" or on Bill Simmons bet on favorites and underdogs and steam alike.
We also have a clear hierarchy of the top 8 or so teams: NE, GB, SF, healthy Dallas, healthy Denver, Arizona, maybe Atlanta maybe Seattle, etc. also 8 crap teams like NO, TB, Cle, Jax, Ten, Chi, SF, etc.
This hierarchy coupled with super tight NFL lines makes Wong teasers (or variations thereof) a good play.
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:24 pm to SirWinston
Locked
Pitt+3
Pitt+3
Posted on 10/1/15 at 4:51 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
It meets all the criteria... Buy low on Niners, sell high on Pack, letdown and look-past spot for Pack, books need Niners. Etc, etc, etc.
This is as subjective as anything squares say. Who's to say the Packers have played their best football yet? Who's to say they are going to have a "letdown" playing in a new NFL stadium for the first (maybe 2nd - did they play there last year?) time in their careers and on the National FOX broadcast with Aikman and Buck? Who's to say that the 49ers and Kaep haven't hit rock bottom yet? That's all fluff masquerading in "sharp" lingo.
I'm not disagreeing with your pick, if I had a gun to my head I might take the points as well, but if this is your method you're just good at picking games or getting lucky so far - you're using a system that (from what I can tell) isn't really superior to "buy what you know" which is what sums up my strategy.
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 10/1/15 at 5:10 pm to SirWinston
Obviously those are just generic screens to identify where perception may have created value... There's more work to do to hone in on good spots. Your use of language is so abrasive.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 5:51 pm to ChemE in the OP
Sorry I'll try to do better.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 6:05 pm to ChemE in the OP
Colts/Jags Over 48.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 6:13 pm to SirWinston
No worries... How long have you followed these threads for?
Posted on 10/1/15 at 6:18 pm to jac1280
quote:
Anyone like Piitsburgh +3 at home vs the Ravens?
Yep. I'm on em at +3
Go Steelers
Posted on 10/1/15 at 7:06 pm to jac1280
Pitt +3
1-5 YTD
1-5 YTD
Posted on 10/1/15 at 7:09 pm to Zipfer2022
Anyone got the public #s on tonight ?
Posted on 10/1/15 at 7:11 pm to BilJ
59-41 Balty. Had some RLM earlier in the week
Just locked in PITT +3
Just locked in PITT +3
Page 3 of 13
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News