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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 1 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:03 am to accnodefense
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:03 am to accnodefense
quote:
Which is why TCU is such a good play in this game... TCU leads the nation or is close to leading the nation each year in run defense... so Minnesota is going to have to pass the ball if they want any chance. But to who? Last year against TCU only their tight end did any receiving damage and he is off to the NFL.
It's just not a good matchup for Minnesota at all. And though TCU won 30-7 last year, TCU didn't play a good offensive game. It was their 2nd game with their new offense. Any gains Minnesota makes defensively will be offset by TCU's offensive improvement.
This game has 38-14 final score written all over it. I also don't see how the first half play would be a good one either(Minnesota -7?) even if Minnesota scores an early TD off of momentum, they won't have the offensive to extend that lead and even if TCU's offense gets off to a slow start I don't see them being held to under 14 points in the 1st half.
I suspect the public money will be heavy on the Frogs - the line will climb again before kickoff. The pros will back the Gophers.
I respect TCU a great deal but this doesn't seem like a great spot - Minnesota looks to hold all the intangibles in this game (prime time, thursday night home dog, etc.)
Still, I want no part of the full game line bc TCU can score from anywhere on the field. I'll be looking to back Minnesota 1st half and maybe take TCU 2H once they've settled in.
ETA: From a football perspective I agree that the matchup seems to heavily favor TCU, but I will be interested to see if the new faces on the TCU defense step up. Minnesota will try to grind this game out with power run and long possessions, which likely is the best way to negate TCU's speed.
This post was edited on 8/3/15 at 11:09 am
1
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:06 am to rocket31
quote:
quote:
i didnt keep a record last season... but i plan to this year. I had a really good year and was up almosy a grand going into the national champ game (my normal units are only $50)
yea, you were money; your record had to have been one of the best on the board last year
i lost a few hundred so pretty much just a meh year for me, but i was due for a losing year; hope to get back on the winning side
thanks, i did have a really good season last year, hopefully we can do it again this year
quote:
accnodefense
nice spreadsheet, i need to do something like this and keep up with mine.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:08 am to Billy Mays
quote:
Billy Mays
so you dont like tcu at 14? or wont like them if the number grows?
quote:
thursday night home dog
dont bring this up 
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:14 am to oleyeller
quote:
nice spreadsheet, i need to do something like this and keep up with mine.
I think the reason I had a good year last year was because I had balls. It's like poker, you have to have the balls to pull the trigger on a risky bet and not a safe bet. That's what separates the pros from the rest in poker.
I rode Wake Forest in the 2nd half of last season. They were consistently multiple TD dogs in every game, yet I rode them and went 3-2 in the games that I bet them on(all were dogs of at least +15).
3-2 isn't amazing but its still a profit, and it would have been easy to think "they will get blown out and not cover" but you just have to sometimes go against what the "safe" pick is.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:14 am to The Egg
quote:
can someone c/p some lines up to look at?
[/img] 
[/img]Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:21 am to accnodefense
quote:
rode Wake Forest
dude i won alot of money on minnesota last year lol
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:24 am to oleyeller
Here's to another good year
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:24 am to oleyeller
quote:
so you dont like tcu at 14? or wont like them if the number grows?
-14 is probably the best # you are going to get if you like TCU. Definitely wouldn't touch anything higher.
I think a huge factor that is often overlooked in Week 1 is that last year's team does not directly carryover to this year's version. End-of-season 2014 TCU was clearly great (only Ohio State would've beat them, IMO), but we don't know we'll see that same level of play in this 1st game of 2015, if it all.
I won't fault anyone for backing TCU - the talent gap is significant on paper. Personally, laying 2+ TDs on the road in a hyped environment for 1st game of the season seems like a bad idea, but to each his own. It is for certain that the public will be excited to spend their summer-hibernating gambling funds hard on a sexy team like TCU the first day of the season, so you know pros will likely be fading you.
quote:
thursday night home dog - dont bring this up
I hear ya - it has become somewhat silly to bring it up, but I'm pretty sure the stats back up the ATS win rates for these games.Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:31 am to Billy Mays
quote:
so you know pros will likely be fading you.
absolutely, and im okay with this in certain situations. I definitely dont ride the public wave, but some situations im okay with it.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:37 am to oleyeller
Might want to take down the caps to avoid the anchor
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:41 am to wildtigercat93
Do you all use a specific betting site? If so, which and does it pay out easy?
Or most use bookie?
Or most use bookie?
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:52 am to HailToTheChiz
The most popular:
5dimes
bovada
betonline
topbet
5dimes
bovada
betonline
topbet
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:55 am to oleyeller
ASU +3 large
Bama -10 very large
Auburn -11.5 large
Bama -10 very large
Auburn -11.5 large
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:02 pm to SDVTiger
I feel like Penn State -5.5 at Temple would be a good play. I know PSU wasn't great last year but that's awfully low.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:02 pm to Billy Mays
I don't know if this is appropriate to post here, so let me know if I need to delete it.
But my guy has shut it down and won't be taking bets this year. This might be a bad question, but how in the world do I go about getting another bookie?
But my guy has shut it down and won't be taking bets this year. This might be a bad question, but how in the world do I go about getting another bookie?
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:19 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
But my guy has shut it down and won't be taking bets this year. This might be a bad question, but how in the world do I go about getting another bookie?
you dont want to do online betting? much more simple
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:23 pm to oleyeller
quote:Is it? I put all my bets in online. Met my guy at a bar every Monday, had a beer with him, and got my money. It was really simple. I'm not opposed to online betting though. I've read hours and hours on the subject, and everything I've read keeps me on the fence.
you dont want to do online betting? much more simple
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:23 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Auburn -11.5 large
:yak:
This post was edited on 8/3/15 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:32 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
everything I've read keeps me on the fence.
Me too
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:38 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
quote:
you dont want to do online betting? much more simple
Is it? I put all my bets in online. Met my guy at a bar every Monday, had a beer with him, and got my money. It was really simple. I'm not opposed to online betting though. I've read hours and hours on the subject, and everything I've read keeps me on the fence.
its going to be hard to find another bookie like that. I have not had any issue with online betting. I use wagerallday, no issues at all. Have bet ncaa football, nfl and nba the past couple years without issue.
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