re: OFFICIAL Week 1 College Football Bet Thread

think im going to add mich state -19, they should win by 3tds

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think im going to add mich state -19, they should win by 3tds

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I am still a couple of weeks away from my model being finished, but looking at where my model is at right now my model REALLY liked Western Michigan last year, and if they return a good portion of their production from last year this might not be the best bet

Ill have to look in closer detail, but i like penn st, unc, and texas at first glance

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they ended their season with two double digit loses in a row to NIU and Air force. I also believe they lost a couple secondary players to the nfl. Michigan will have very good qb play, and should handle them with ease... just my opinion

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Yeah if they have substantial losses they won't be a factor. My model liked them specifically from last year, I was looking at the rankings and they were in my model's Top 40 I think, which is high for a MAC team which is how they caught my attention. All my data is at home on my home computer so I can't get it here at work.

any experience dealing with bookie that wont pay up? I've given him plenty of time and he's started dodging me. it's only $500, but still. it's the principle. If I would pull this, he'd have goons after me

thinking about going to another local bookie and offering him half if he can get his guys to collect it for me

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any experience dealing with bookie that wont pay up? I've given him plenty of time and he's started dodging me. it's only $500, but still. it's the principle. If I would pull this, he'd have goons after me

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dam that sucks.. He is probably hoping you keep the tab for the upcomming season and lose it so he doesnt have to pay.

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although i will fade the hell out of a big public favorite


You realize Penn St. will be a big public favorite right? They are playing on the road and laying 7 points to a very experienced Temple team that returns 19 starters including all 11 defensive starters that produced a top 25 defense last season. This is an AWFUL spot for Penn St. 24th ranked D in 2014

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i absolutely realize that, as well as some of my other picks week one. What i meant is i would fade a public fav thats laying a lot of points (30+) take the fla game for instance. But week one is different than any other week for me, i normally win more by betting on the righy favorites week 2. Plus penn state year 2 under franklin, returning one of the best qbs in college football. I will take them all day at 6.5

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He threw for 2900 yards with 12 TD's and 15 interceptions last year. He was sacked 44 times. I'm not trying to be a dick just pointing out that those numbers in year 2 of his career make him no where near one of the best qbs in college football. Last year @ home against Temple he was 12-26 for 112 yards. He was actually far worse last year than he was as a freshman. Just pointing out facts that it seems you have obviously missed.

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i understand the "stats" but hackenberg will be the top qb taken and possibly the number 1 overall pick in the draft. It was a total new system last year, all new coaches, a big learning curve. Expect big thing out of hackenberg and that offense this year.

How close to the start of week 1 does bovada usually make lines available?

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i absolutely realize that, as well as some of my other picks week one. What i meant is i would fade a public fav thats laying a lot of points (30+) take the fla game for instance. But week one is different than any other week for me, i normally win more by betting on the righy favorites week 2. Plus penn state year 2 under franklin, returning one of the best qbs in college football. I will take them all day at 6.5

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I have never had a winning Week 1 since I started betting on CFB in 2011. In 2012 I had a very good opening Thursday Night, going 6-1 on my bets and hitting on a 3 team parlay and 6 team teaser, but I got over confident and pretty much gave it all back on Saturday. I made 3 large sized bets on Colorado, South Alabama and Western Michigan that all lost even though I hit the Ohio ML at +155 over Penn State.

Honestly Week 1 is like throwing darts. I think the best strategy from what I have found is to fade the public in Week 1 since Week 1 is all about betting the big name teams. That is where I have had my largest success in Week 1. It's when I try to get cute and look for the diamonds in the rough where I have failed.