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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB bet thread week 8
Posted on 10/17/13 at 9:30 am to the_watcher
Posted on 10/17/13 at 9:30 am to the_watcher
What did Vegas say about TAMU and Bama last year?
If your reasoning behind backing FSU is Vegas power rankings, than you're no better than the sheep betting on Clemson because they are ranked 3rd. How about you cap the game yourself? Vegas isn't always right.
But by all means if you think it's the lock of the century then throw your bankroll on it.
I'm not betting on the game fwiw.
If your reasoning behind backing FSU is Vegas power rankings, than you're no better than the sheep betting on Clemson because they are ranked 3rd. How about you cap the game yourself? Vegas isn't always right.
But by all means if you think it's the lock of the century then throw your bankroll on it.
I'm not betting on the game fwiw.
0
Posted on 10/17/13 at 9:32 am to hendersonshands
quote:
Anyone else thinking about Fresno St
Already taken.
UNLV's offense is solid, but Fresno is on another level. 59-24 Bulldogs.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 9:46 am to the_watcher
LOL at a generic Vegas power ranking speaking for all of Vegas.
According to VegasInsider (which I don't really trust but some people like to quote as gospel), 75% of early money was on Clemson. News flash, the general public is not hammering games when they come out on a Monday.
Now they could also be setting up a buy back at FSU -2.5...
According to VegasInsider (which I don't really trust but some people like to quote as gospel), 75% of early money was on Clemson. News flash, the general public is not hammering games when they come out on a Monday.
Now they could also be setting up a buy back at FSU -2.5...
Posted on 10/17/13 at 9:47 am to Billy Mays
quote:
If your reasoning behind backing FSU is Vegas power rankings, than you're no better than the sheep betting on Clemson because they are ranked 3rd. How about you cap the game yourself? Vegas isn't always right.
In my first post I said I'm not predicting this game either way. Thought it was obvious I'm not betting the game at all. I think it will be close and I do think either team can win. Point being trying to find value in a game like this is comical b/c it just isn't there although I do think stating Clemson is gonna roll is far worse then claiming FSU will roll.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 9:48 am to bamafan425
Just to be clear, I'm pretty sure Frenzy was just trolling all the Clemson love, atleast that's how I took it. I was just commenting on his post. The line is 3 for a reason, Vegas is smarter than me and they expect it to be close.
My personal opinion is I think Florida State wins comfortably (7-10 points) but iI wouldn't consider that 'rolling' by any means
My personal opinion is I think Florida State wins comfortably (7-10 points) but iI wouldn't consider that 'rolling' by any means
Posted on 10/17/13 at 9:51 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
75% of early money was on Clemson.
75% of how much money? The line hasn't moved once, can't be too much money.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 9:54 am to TheOcean
Just because the line hasn't moved doesn't mean that there wasn't money thrown down on one side or the other.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 9:58 am to TheOcean
68% of the money on sports insights, 69% at Las Vegas Hilton and Sportsbook.com are backing Clemson. One of my books won't allow me to buy points in this game which always makes something strange happen in the game no clue why. The line did open at 2.5 at LVH and now is at 3 which is always telling when the line moves away from the public side.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:05 am to HoLeInOnEr05
I completely understand that. But his post made it seem like a bunch of sharp money was pouring in on Clemson when there is really nothing to indicate that.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:08 am to TheOcean
Got ya. And not to get off point, but for those thinking of backing Miami tonight, the weather in Chapel Hill is supposed to be shotty. Cold and rainy is what I have heard, and we all know that Miami teams in the past have usually played poorly in cold conditions. Just some food for thought.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:12 am to bamafan425
quote:I think this FSU D is not getting the credit it deserves because of one bad game. This team is loaded on both sides of the ball. Like DG, if FSU's line holds up (and all indications are that it will), I don't think this game will be too close.
Ford Frenzy used the exact words and dg agreed (with the stipulation that the o line must hold up).
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:18 am to hendersonshands
quote:
Anyone else thinking about Fresno St? UNLV is 110th in scoring defense and Fresno St averages 47.4 points.
im waiting to see the first half and quarter lines for this game. fresno 1st half will most likely be one of my larger plays of the season. their m.o. under derueter has been to destroy people in the first half and absolutely fall asleep 2nd half.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:22 am to Ford Frenzy
Can someone tell me why in the hell the BYU/Houston game total is so flipping high? Neither team is giving up more than 20 points per. BYU is a running machine, which chews the clock down significantly. And I also look for BYU to just look to get by with this game, as they have Boise St coming to town next week. The total is set at 63, which I think is just unfathomable.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:27 am to HoLeInOnEr05
I have no play on FSU/Clemson but if I had to play it I'd pick FSU. Clemson is a trap.
I see a lot of value on Miami -8.5 tonight. UNC is terrible and I know the Thursday Night Curse looms but Miami wins by double digits here. UNC is horrible
I see a lot of value on Miami -8.5 tonight. UNC is terrible and I know the Thursday Night Curse looms but Miami wins by double digits here. UNC is horrible
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:28 am to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
Can someone tell me why in the hell the BYU/Houston game total is so flipping high? Neither team is giving up more than 20 points per. BYU is a running machine, which chews the clock down significantly. And I also look for BYU to just look to get by with this game, as they have Boise St coming to town next week. The total is set at 63, which I think is just unfathomable.
BYU/Houston Under 63 is one of my biggest plays of the week.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:44 am to the_watcher
Why do you think stating one team is gonna roll is far worse than the other if you think the game is gonna be close?
Posted on 10/17/13 at 10:56 am to goldennugget
quote:
I see a lot of value on Miami -8.5 tonight. UNC is terrible and I know the Thursday Night Curse looms but Miami wins by double digits here. UNC is horrible
If you can get it under 10 I agree the value is on the U.
More value on tomorrow night's game.
If last week's game doesn't happen Louisville is at least 14.5 favorites on Friday night, perception is a little down on UL and a little high on UCF as most bettors simply remember their win at Penn St and hanging with USCe.
Those were both very favorable matchups for UCF, this is not.
As an example I run my matchup analyzer spreadsheet which basically shows how favorable a game is based on teams styles and strengths and weaknesses. If the two teams played again today based on all the data I have to this point I would have USCe -2 vs UCF and UCF -1 vs Penn State. The same analyzer has Louisville -21 vs. UCF.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:17 am to dgtiger3
quote:
The same analyzer has Louisville -21 vs. UCF
I was just coming here to ask if anybody was predicting a slip-up from Louisville this week.
I may or may not be in the group that overreacted on last weeks result and I'm having a slight case of buyer's remorse on UCF. I was looking for someone to validate my move, not this shite.
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:24 am to TheOcean
quote:
quote: 75% of early money was on Clemson. 75% of how much money? The line hasn't moved once, can't be too much money.
I'm sorry, I meant to say 75% of bets. We obviously don't know any money totals on either side.
And to answer your later point about there being nothing to indicate it's sharp money on Clemson, the vast majority of money bet at open in Vegas is by sharps...ever heard the adage that early money and late money is usually sharp?
Posted on 10/17/13 at 11:25 am to TheOcean
But with all that said FSU may very well win and I look like a fool haha.
Thoughts on tonight? If it's bad weather that under may be worth a look...
Thoughts on tonight? If it's bad weather that under may be worth a look...
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