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MWC > P-10, still

Posted on 10/28/08 at 2:27 pm
Posted by xiv
Parody. #AdminsRule
Member since Feb 2004
39508 posts
Posted on 10/28/08 at 2:27 pm
I keep a computer rating system, and if you average out the individual team's ratings of each conference, they rank this way:
1 BXII
2 SEC
3 B10
4 ACC
5 BE
6 MWC
7 P10
8 WAC
9 MAC
10 USA
11 SBC

This is the first time that a non-BCS conference has been above one of the big 6 this late in the season in my ratings. Is the MWC better than the Pac-10?

Posted by Hedonist
Austin, Texas
Member since Oct 2008
301 posts
Posted on 10/28/08 at 2:31 pm to
No, it isn't.

I also think the pac 10 has more quality teams than the Big East.

You have 1 elite team in USC, 4 good teams in oregon State, Oregon , California, Arizona... 2 ATROCIOUS teams in Wazzu/Washington... then 3 average/bad but not terrible teams like stanford, ASU, UCLA.

MWC on the other hand has 4 good teams, 2 atrocious teams, and 3 bad/average teams.

I think USC's presence alone in the Pac 10 is what makes it a superior conference overall. TCU, AFA, BYU, and Utah are on the same level as Oregon, California, Arizona, and Oregon State.
This post was edited on 10/28/08 at 2:34 pm
Posted by MJRuffalo
Huntington Beach
Member since May 2008
6619 posts
Posted on 10/28/08 at 2:40 pm to
Those look like Colley's stupid arse rankings. He counts only conference winning percentage and not SOS. So basically the SEC going 20-0 vs. the MAC, COnf USA, SUn Belt and 1AA, boosts them up artificially. Most other computer systems have the PAC-10 rated higher and have the SEC either 3rd or 4th.
Posted by The Easter Bunny
Santa Barbara
Member since Jan 2005
45663 posts
Posted on 10/28/08 at 3:50 pm to
Don't get too upset with us beating MAC teams, Michigan couldn't
Posted by MJRuffalo
Huntington Beach
Member since May 2008
6619 posts
Posted on 10/28/08 at 3:53 pm to
Michigan is 2-6. Anyway any system that rates a conference soley on winning % is seriously flawed.
Posted by xiv
Parody. #AdminsRule
Member since Feb 2004
39508 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 1:06 am to
quote:

Those look like Colley's stupid arse rankings. He counts only conference winning percentage and not SOS. So basically the SEC going 20-0 vs. the MAC, COnf USA, SUn Belt and 1AA, boosts them up artificially. Most other computer systems have the PAC-10 rated higher and have the SEC either 3rd or 4th.
FYI, in my system:

Winning % = x
Opponents winning % = 2x/3
Opponents opponents winning % = x/3

SOS counts just as much as winning %.

(This is the worst I've ever seen the Pac-10. It really sucks this year.)
Posted by usc6158
Member since Feb 2008
39064 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 1:10 am to
It was worse in 99 when Stanford went to the Rose Bowl ranked in the mid 20s. That's also the last time the Big-10 actually won a Rose Bowl....but yeah this is the worst by far it's been since then
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
53360 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 1:16 am to
While I don't believe that the Pac-1+9 is the lowest BCS conference out there, much less looking up at a mid-major....out of curiousity where do you stand on the SOS rankings that have USC at #6?

I ask only because you seem to be one of the more honest USC posters here, as opposed to the seeming majority who love to pick up an excuse to flame LSU/SEC.

Posted by TigerStripes06
SWLA
Member since Sep 2006
30032 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 1:24 am to
i think its funny because anywhere else if you apply the formula, USC doesn't sniff the top 10 of the BCS...yet when the real rankings come out, you just cant seem to get rid of them...SOS isn't good then they lose to a bottom feeder in oregon state....i guess the blowout of the buckeyes goes a loooong way toward remedying that situation.

the one that that irritates me is that it seems like when you lose is more important than who you lose to. ie...if bama loses to LSU...even though LSU is worlds better than OSU...there is no way bama stays ahead of USC in the bcs because USC lost very early and it shouldn't be that way.

Im not flaming USC, it just doesnt make any sense to me...i tend to be one of the fans that doesn't really care if other teams get attention and i admit that they have a really good team. Also, you dont hear many LSU fans begging for USC anymore do you?

and fwiw, usc6158 is probably the most solid poster from usc on the site..top 3 from opposing schools over all.
Posted by loweralabamatrojan
Lower Alabama
Member since Oct 2006
13246 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 6:19 am to
quote:

While I don't believe that the Pac-1+9 is the lowest BCS conference out there, much less looking up at a mid-major....out of curiousity where do you stand on the SOS rankings that have USC at #6?

If I'm not mistaken, our SOS is based on teams that we've played so far, and in some cases, where we've played them. tOSU and UVA are big for us because the PAC 10 conference is down hard this season, and both the Bucks and Hoos are doing well. Also, all of our opponents are D1, BCS conference foes.

We play six at home, six on the road, and road games against BCS competition* are not gimmes.

Two of our opponents (UO and tOSU) are ranked in the top 25 currently. Virginia, Cal and Notre Dame are knocking on the door. If you're a USC hater, root for all of those teams to lose.

*Teams In the State of Washington not included.
If we lose to UW this season, it's Stanford II
road game or not.
This post was edited on 10/29/08 at 6:21 am
Posted by usc6158
Member since Feb 2008
39064 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 9:23 am to
seems way too high, yet we haven't played a non-BCS team which I'm sure is what is keeping the schedule afloat at all along with Virginia turning it around. It will drop substantially at the end of the season as the only real test SC has left is cal at home and maybe ND
This post was edited on 10/29/08 at 9:26 am
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 9:49 am to
quote:

He counts only conference winning percentage and not SOS.


Bull. shite. You don't know what you are talking about
Posted by MrKennedy
Yes
Member since May 2008
19124 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 9:53 am to
quote:

If we lose to UW this season, it's Stanford II

Oh no, it would be worse than that!

It would be like LSU losing to UNT, just about.
Posted by MJRuffalo
Huntington Beach
Member since May 2008
6619 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 11:13 am to
I went on Colley's own site and he had his conference rankings in order of winning percentage only.
Posted by MJRuffalo
Huntington Beach
Member since May 2008
6619 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 11:14 am to
We get UW at home this Saturday, btw.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

I went on Colley's own site and he had his conference rankings in order of winning percentage only.


wrong

Colley Conference Rankings

The WAC has a better winning percentage and is rated below the Pac10. Clearly the conferences aren't rated by winning percentage and SOS is included. Also, the SEC has a best percentage but is ranked 2nd.
Posted by MJRuffalo
Huntington Beach
Member since May 2008
6619 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 1:36 pm to
My mistake. I guess SOS is only slightly accounted for. Most other systems have the SEC rated 3rd or 4th, due to their very weak ooc.
Posted by xiv
Parody. #AdminsRule
Member since Feb 2004
39508 posts
Posted on 10/29/08 at 1:59 pm to
I think we might be underrating USC's SOS right now, especially since it turns out that Virginia isn't really bad.

# | Team | Winning % | Opponents' Winning % | Opponents' Opponents' Winning %
(FCS wins do not count; FCS losses count)
1 Texas 1.00000 0.56897 0.54436
2 Alabama 1.00000 0.38889 0.58122
3 Penn State 1.00000 0.38983 0.61982
4 Boise State 1.00000 0.45455 0.47419
5 Texas Tech 1.00000 0.40000 0.53526
6 Utah 1.00000 0.36538 0.54933
7 Georgia 0.85714 0.60000 0.50000
8 Oklahoma 0.85714 0.56000 0.53760
9 Southern California 0.85714 0.50980 0.54324
10 Florida 0.85714 0.46939 0.58166
11 Tulsa 1.00000 0.26415 0.53562
12 Ball State 1.00000 0.26000 0.54144
13 Oklahoma State 0.85714 0.47917 0.52601
14 Ohio State 0.75000 0.62712 0.51487
15 Minnesota 0.85714 0.42308 0.57368
16 Texas Christian 0.87500 0.40984 0.54195
17 Missouri 0.71429 0.60784 0.54722
18 Florida State 0.80000 0.45714 0.58590
19 North Carolina 0.71429 0.58333 0.53823
20 Michigan State 0.77778 0.49254 0.51919
21 Brigham Young 0.85714 0.34545 0.55500
22 Connecticut 0.71429 0.50000 0.57143
23 California 0.71429 0.46154 0.52083
24 Virginia 0.57143 0.68085 0.49691
25 Pittsburgh 0.71429 0.42857 0.55362
26 Air Force 0.71429 0.44231 0.51075
27 Central Michigan 0.71429 0.40000 0.57534
28 Georgia Tech 0.66667 0.47368 0.56371
29 Oregon 0.75000 0.32143 0.61179
30 Louisiana State 0.66667 0.50000 0.50000
31 Louisville 0.66667 0.50000 0.48505
32 Northwestern 0.71429 0.36735 0.60504
33 Notre Dame 0.71429 0.37037 0.59487
34 Oregon State 0.57143 0.54902 0.52703
35 Western Michigan 0.71429 0.42308 0.47989
36 South Florida 0.71429 0.39130 0.53292
37 Cincinnati 0.66667 0.47619 0.49329
38 Maryland 0.71429 0.36735 0.56213
39 Nebraska 0.62500 0.53704 0.48593
40 Troy 0.66667 0.43478 0.51852
41 Virginia Tech 0.57143 0.57778 0.50814
42 Miami (FL) 0.57143 0.56522 0.53145
43 Vanderbilt 0.62500 0.49123 0.50242
44 Boston College 0.66667 0.40000 0.54135
45 Kansas 0.57143 0.55319 0.47590
46 Kentucky 0.57143 0.53061 0.51734
47 Fresno State 0.71429 0.28302 0.57641
48 Navy 0.57143 0.53061 0.50882
49 West Virginia 0.66667 0.36585 0.54737
50 Wake Forest 0.57143 0.51111 0.52848
51 Duke 0.50000 0.61905 0.51748
52 South Carolina 0.57143 0.48980 0.54913
53 Rice 0.62500 0.43548 0.49548
54 Iowa 0.57143 0.51923 0.48533
55 Arizona 0.62500 0.39344 0.53915
56 Colorado 0.42857 0.65957 0.53012
57 Wisconsin 0.50000 0.57627 0.48165
58 San José State 0.57143 0.43137 0.52825
59 East Carolina 0.57143 0.43750 0.50915
60 Mississippi 0.42857 0.61538 0.48753
61 Stanford 0.50000 0.50000 0.50345
62 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.57143 0.36735 0.55294
63 Hawaii 0.42857 0.63830 0.43402
64 Illinois 0.42857 0.59615 0.51579
65 Northern Illinois 0.57143 0.38462 0.50260
66 Colorado State 0.42857 0.56863 0.47802
67 Houston 0.50000 0.44186 0.51316
68 New Mexico 0.44444 0.56061 0.44196
69 Buffalo 0.42857 0.56863 0.46537
70 Kansas State 0.42857 0.53061 0.51297
71 Auburn 0.50000 0.40351 0.49756
72 Texas-El Paso 0.42857 0.51020 0.48189
73 Akron 0.50000 0.39655 0.48426
74 Tennessee 0.37500 0.57627 0.47393
75 UCLA 0.37500 0.56667 0.43820
76 Rutgers 0.28571 0.68085 0.45152
77 Texas A&M 0.37500 0.52632 0.46402
78 Temple 0.37500 0.53448 0.44337
79 Nevada 0.42857 0.42000 0.50847
80 Florida Atlantic 0.37500 0.50000 0.49052
81 Arkansas State 0.50000 0.32609 0.45963
82 Indiana 0.28571 0.64000 0.46995
83 Arkansas 0.28571 0.63462 0.47838
84 Florida International 0.42857 0.40000 0.51567
85 Bowling Green 0.37500 0.49123 0.46318
86 Nevada-Las Vegas 0.37500 0.48214 0.47794
87 Memphis 0.37500 0.43636 0.47382
88 Baylor 0.28571 0.54000 0.52738
89 Michigan 0.25000 0.60000 0.47758
90 Purdue 0.14286 0.78846 0.41689
91 Louisiana Tech 0.33333 0.44186 0.47811
92 New Mexico State 0.33333 0.43478 0.48318
93 Marshall 0.33333 0.41860 0.48845
94 Clemson 0.20000 0.62857 0.46522
95 Arizona State 0.16667 0.66667 0.47678
96 Mississippi State 0.28571 0.48000 0.48864
97 Southern Mississippi 0.25000 0.53571 0.41975
98 Middle Tennessee State 0.25000 0.51852 0.44388
99 Tulane 0.28571 0.45283 0.44474
100 Wyoming 0.14286 0.62264 0.44924
101 North Carolina State 0.14286 0.61364 0.44702
102 Central Florida 0.16667 0.54762 0.46367
103 Toledo 0.14286 0.60784 0.39362
104 Ohio 0.14286 0.50980 0.49459
105 Utah State 0.12500 0.57692 0.39788
106 Eastern Michigan 0.12500 0.55738 0.42202
107 Iowa State 0.14286 0.47059 0.52646
108 Alabama-Birmingham 0.14286 0.50000 0.45000
109 Syracuse 0.00000 0.72093 0.39073
110 Washington 0.00000 0.69231 0.43117
111 Miami (OH) 0.14286 0.42308 0.49333
112 Western Kentucky 0.00000 0.63636 0.48039
113 Washington State 0.00000 0.62745 0.48913
114 Kent State 0.14286 0.44898 0.40456
115 Southern Methodist 0.00000 0.63636 0.43137
116 Idaho 0.12500 0.42105 0.43902
117 Louisiana-Monroe 0.14286 0.35294 0.46757
118 Army 0.37500 0.34615 0.49869
119 North Texas 0.00000 0.56364 0.40842
120 San Diego State 0.12500 0.54717 0.45918

The Trojans have a schedule that is slightly tougher than last year at this point.
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