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Mariota Heisman Hedge
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:07 pm
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:07 pm
Earlier in the season I took Mariota to win the Heisman at 5/1. So I bet 200 to win 1000. If Oregon wins, Mariota is a lock for the Heisman. But a bettor's nature is always looking for worst case scenario(Arizona winning Pac 12).
So to hedge, I have 3 options:
1. Bet 50 on Arizona money line at +450.
2. Bet 200 on Arizona +14.5. If Ore wins between 1-14 pts, I can win both bets.
3. Bet 50 on Gordon to win Heisman at 5/1.
Which is the best option? Im leaning towards #2.
So to hedge, I have 3 options:
1. Bet 50 on Arizona money line at +450.
2. Bet 200 on Arizona +14.5. If Ore wins between 1-14 pts, I can win both bets.
3. Bet 50 on Gordon to win Heisman at 5/1.
Which is the best option? Im leaning towards #2.
14
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:11 pm to PeteRose
quote:
Bet 200 on Arizona +14.5
Lol wut. The line is Oregon -14.5?
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:11 pm to PeteRose
2 is the worst option
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:12 pm to JG77056
quote:
2 is the worst option
it's the only option where i can win both bets.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:17 pm to PeteRose
quote:
it's the only option where i can win both bets.
spoken like a true gambler
eta: I bet a dollar on 50/1 that the Cowboys win the SB
eta: In August
This post was edited on 12/3/14 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:25 pm to PeteRose
The only true hedge is Gordon at 5/1. It's conceivable that Oregon covers against Arizona but Gordon goes bonkers and rushes for 400 yards again...I think he would win in that scenario
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:29 pm to PeteRose
You simply have to bet #3 IMO. I would do the following:
1. 50 on Gordon
2. 75 on Arizona ML
3. 150 on Arizona +14.5 (great value here!)
I think Mariota will win it and I like Oregon by 10. The only way Mariota doesn't get it is if Oregon loses which you'll have covered with 1 and 2.
1. 50 on Gordon
2. 75 on Arizona ML
3. 150 on Arizona +14.5 (great value here!)
I think Mariota will win it and I like Oregon by 10. The only way Mariota doesn't get it is if Oregon loses which you'll have covered with 1 and 2.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:31 pm to PeteRose
The best bet is not the one that gives you the chance of winning both bets. The best hedge is the one that directly covers your downside of the Mariota winning the Heisman bet. Hedging Gordon at 5-1 is the directly connected hedge.
Marietta could put up obscene numbers and Oregon still lose and conceivably win.
Your best play to hedge is to bet within the bet itself- go with Gordon.
Marietta could put up obscene numbers and Oregon still lose and conceivably win.
Your best play to hedge is to bet within the bet itself- go with Gordon.
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:39 pm to PeteRose
What are the odds on Amari winning it?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:10 am to PeteRose
2 is a really bad option. I don't follow Oregon that closely, but it seems to me like when they win, it's by 3 TDs or more. If the offense is gonna work, it's gonna blow out the other team. I think you would lose 2, and then you lose the heisman bet as well and go under $400. Hedging your bets generally means doing something to make your money back if your big bet doesn't work out. Do bet 3, you'll go even if Gordon wins (and he is the second place winner by far), and you'll make $750 if Mariota wins
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:23 am to PeteRose
#3 easily. Recoup your initial Mariota bet if you lose that one.
Another poster nailed it wrt Oregon - they either blow the other team out or they lose almost all the time. Don't bet on a close Oregon win IMO.
Another poster nailed it wrt Oregon - they either blow the other team out or they lose almost all the time. Don't bet on a close Oregon win IMO.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 12:23 am to DriveByBBQ
quote:
What are the odds on Amari winning it?
He's not even on the list. It's a 2 man race right now.
Mariota 1/10 (you have to lay 1K to win 100)
Gordon 5/1
as you an see, Mariota is a huge favorite.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:06 am to PeteRose
Go with #3. You're ensuring yourself either 50 bucks or 750 and you literally can't lose any money.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 1:16 am to PeteRose
Unless Mariota is the sole reason that Oregon were to lose to Arizona, and I'm talking about a 4 interception performance - you're all good. The Heisman is his. It's bullshite what the Heisman has become though. Amari Cooper is the best player in the country and deserves that award.
This post was edited on 12/4/14 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 12/4/14 at 6:10 am to PeteRose
quote:
Arizona +14.5
Christ, who are they playing? The Seahawks?
Posted on 12/4/14 at 6:52 am to PeteRose
I go with 2 all day and try to middle that sucka and win both!!
Why only 50 on the ML? I think 200 on the AZ ML is the correct play
400 invested. Oregon wins you net 600. AZ wins you net 500
Why only 50 on the ML? I think 200 on the AZ ML is the correct play
400 invested. Oregon wins you net 600. AZ wins you net 500
Posted on 12/4/14 at 9:33 am to Oxford
quote:
Amari Cooper is the best player in the country and deserves that award.
mariota is just as deserving as cooper.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 9:36 am to 632627
quote:I would say more so, and Gordon is as well.
mariota is just as deserving as cooper.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 10:35 am to PeteRose
quote:
PeteRose
Very fitting name.
I don't like 2 at all.
Posted on 12/4/14 at 10:57 am to 632627
quote:
quote:Amari Cooper is the best player in the country and deserves that award. mariota is just as deserving as cooper.
Interesting that you would say this considering USC's QB has similar numbers and he has no talk of a Heisman
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