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Largest FT attempt differential NBA stat

Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:10 pm
Posted by CarolinaGamecock99
Member since Apr 2015
21870 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:10 pm

Very interesting stat
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145153 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:12 pm to
and there aint shite anyone can do about it
Posted by Chef Curry
Member since Mar 2019
2059 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:17 pm to
Refs trying to help them all year and they still suck.
Posted by therick711
South
Member since Jan 2008
25097 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:17 pm to
Your dedication to the bit is something.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164137 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:18 pm to
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145153 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:21 pm to
and they just added another 20 tonight
Posted by HonorThyWarEagle
#Auburn2FinalFour
Member since Sep 2022
2959 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:23 pm to
So we were right
Posted by Cregg
Orange Beach
Member since Jul 2017
2012 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

and there aint shite anyone can do about it



Posted by DownSouthCrawfish
Simcoe Strip - He/Him/Helicopter
Member since Oct 2011
36322 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:32 pm to
I encourage the muh ft disparity bros to listen to Tim Cranjis’ recent podcast episode. Might learn something.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145153 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:33 pm to
i also encourage them to bend and spread as there aint shite they can do but stay mad about it
Posted by Tigerbiscuits
Mid-City
Member since Nov 2011
988 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:37 pm to
Care to elaborate? I’m interested. It should be pretty clear on a by player average. Makes sense AD and lebron would get to the line more than the 3pt shooting teams in the league. Just seems way too lopsided to not find some humor in it.
Posted by DownSouthCrawfish
Simcoe Strip - He/Him/Helicopter
Member since Oct 2011
36322 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:38 pm to
they are big mad about it too.


oh and I would also like a few posters to tel me how the league had a clear bias for the Pelicans in a few years ago when they led this same stat
Posted by DownSouthCrawfish
Simcoe Strip - He/Him/Helicopter
Member since Oct 2011
36322 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 9:39 pm to
TLDR version would be the Lakers run stuff that draws fouls.
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
34141 posts
Posted on 3/29/23 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

oh and I would also like a few posters to tel me how the league had a clear bias for the Pelicans in a few years ago when they led this same stat


What was the margin for the Pels?
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35236 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 12:11 am to
I was curious about this differential based on the type of shots taken, specifically FTA per FGA and FTA per 2PT-FGA. Not including tonight's games, the Lakers do shoot significantly more FTA/FGA than their opponents at 0.074, considerably higher than the 2nd highest differential (Sacramento) at 0.034.

However, since 2PT FGAs should result in significantly more FTAs than 3PT FGAs, I thought it would be interesting to look at that as well. In this case, Dallas's differential (0.131) per 2PT FGA is considerably higher than the 2nd highest differential (Milwaukee) at 0.094. The Lakers have the 4th highest differential at 0.092.

The 3 who are higher than them (Dallas, Milwaukee, and Sacramento) shoot considerably more 3s than their opponents at (9.6, 6.4, and 3.5 respectively) but considerably fewer 2s (-11.3, -9.2, and -5.0 respectively. The opposite is true for the Lakers as the shoot 5 fewer 3s than their opponents and 0.3 more 2s.

In addition, while I'm not sure how to find how many shooting fouls per 2PTer and per 3PTer, I was able to find how many And-1 opportunities there were for each. And I'm assuming those roughly approximate to the shooting fouls for each. In particular, about 4.78% of 2PT FGAs result in an And-1 opportunity compared to 0.25% for 3PT FGAs. So roughly 19 more And-1 opportunities per 2PT FGA than per 3PT FGA. So a team that shoots more 3s and fewer 2s than its opponents, should get more shooting fouls.

Overall, this appears to be at least partially a function of style.
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 12:12 am
Posted by hg
Member since Jun 2009
123621 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 12:34 am to
20th in drives per game
8th in post up percentage

No style of play is going to have you over 218+ compared to the next team.

Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35236 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 1:00 am to
quote:

20th in drives per game 8th in post up percentage No style of play is going to have you over 218+ compared to the next team.
Yes. But while basketball reference has 2 ways to define Free Throw rate, and for some reason there are some differences between the two, the Lakers are 3rd in both with Philadelphia ahead in noth and Dallas and Portland ahead in 1, despite all 3 teams taking fewer attempts from 2 per game (LA with 56.2, Philly with 52.0, Portland with 50.2, and Dallas with 44.2).

The difference isn’t that the Lakers get to the line an unusually high amount, especially considering their shot distribution. It’s that their opponents have the lowest FTA/FGA in the league at 0.173. In fact, their defensive differential between the league average 0.210, is considerably larger (0.037) than their offensive differential (0.023).

Altogether though the difference is that LA ranks near the top in both, and that is at least partially explained by the shot distribution.

But focusing just on offense paints an unclear picture, but your post is especially stupid since post-ups results in more FTAs per possession anyways. But even then, there are 106,583 drives on NBA.com tracking compared to 13,140 post-ups. But those 2 still only account for about half of all offensive possessions anyways.
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 1:04 am
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20018 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 6:53 am to
quote:

The difference isn’t that the Lakers get to the line an unusually high amount, especially considering their shot distribution. It’s that their opponents have the lowest FTA/FGA in the league at 0.173.


Talk about missing the point.

This is the problem with looking at results to develop the hypothesis. You can tell multiple stories with the same data. If you start with a hypothesis (the lakers get more favorable calls than their opponents), those same stats corroborate the claim in a much more straightforward way than saying “every team they play against is just less effective at getting to the line”.

I mean seriously the difference in point differential is more than the next highest differential. The Lakers are the outlier.
This post was edited on 3/30/23 at 6:57 am
Posted by SoFla Tideroller
South Florida
Member since Apr 2010
30099 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 6:58 am to
Tim Donaghy just smiles.
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20018 posts
Posted on 3/30/23 at 7:00 am to
quote:

they are big mad about it too.


Got to be one of the lamest sayings out there.
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