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Posted on 9/25/12 at 6:47 pm to Baloo
quote:
WAR posits that Trout's defense is worth 3.2 wins more than Cabrera. 3.2 WAR? that's Jose Bautista's season long WAR. That would rank as the 28th most valuable player, according to WAR, in the AL. I'm sorry, there is simply no possible way this is true.
This is the paragraph where you kinda lose me. Though clearly defensive statistics are unreliable at best, I don't think it is beyond the realm of reason that Trout's D is worth somewhere in the 3.2 wins range more than Cabrera's (even though I think B-R has the difference as 2.9 now). Yes, Trout has played quite a bit in LF, but primarily he's played in CF which is a very important position. It does not seem beyond the realm of reason to me that a great defensive CF could add a shite ton of value to his team. Maybe that's just because I watched Nate fricking McLouth play CF for my team for several years. A great defensive CF turns doubles or triples to singles. Doubles or triples to outs. Hell, very rarely, even home run to an out. Was Trout for sure worth 2.6 wins this year because of his at least above-average D (I say above average because I think everyone can agree on that)? I don't know. But somewhere in the 2-3 range certainly seems reasonable to me.
Conversely, do I think a player negatively affects his team with poor defensive play? Yes. Once again, it certainly seems reasonable to me that Cabrera was worth -0.3 wins because of at best average/slightly below average defense at 3B.
Your use of 92 games-played/slightly down year Jose Bautista also strikes me as slightly disingenuous.
I certainly don't think WAR is gospel. Overall I think the two's offensive contributions have been very similar. I don't think anyone argues that Trout is the much better defensive player. WAR or not, to me that gives the clear edge to Trout.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 7:03 pm to Pilot Tiger
quote:
well if you're using someone like Alfonso Soriano as a replacement outfielder maybe.
Soriano has actually rated as an above average defender 6 of the last 7 years on fangraphs. His 12.5 UZR rates 8th in the majors this year, #1 for LF. Yet baseball-reference has his dWAR rated as slightly below average for each of the last 5 years.
It's amazing how two sites can have be that far apart. More reason for why I hate how heavily WAR factors in defense.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 8:12 am to Friend of OBUDan
quote:
Conversely, do I think a player negatively affects his team with poor defensive play? Yes. Once again, it certainly seems reasonable to me that Cabrera was worth -0.3 wins because of at best average/slightly below average defense at 3B.
Your use of 92 games-played/slightly down year Jose Bautista also strikes me as slightly disingenuous.
Well, that's because I was trying to use the only AL player with the same exact WAR as the gap between the two players. but you're right, let's use someone who played the whole year: Adam "Not Pac-Man" Jones.
Jones' WAR is 3.3, which is slightly more than the 3.1 gap between Trout and Cabrera, but since WAR is a counting stat and Trout oly played five months, I think it's safe to say Trout's dWAR advantage for a full 6 months would, conservatively, be 3.3 over Cabrera. You think the gap between the two defensively is Adam Jones?
But, wait! It gets better! Jones and Trout are both CF with a lofty defensive rep. Jones has 6 more errors (and 5 more assists). But Jones has a slight edge in Range (2.75 to 2.66) and in Fielding Runs (13 to 11). I feel comfortable stating that these two players are close defensively. How does WAR rate them?
Glad you asked. Trout's dWAR is 2.5. Jones? NEGATIVE 1.7. The gap between two roughly equivalent defensive CF in WAR is a whopping 4.2. Or more than the total value of Prince Fielder (4.0).
Once again, there is no earthly way this is true. WAR inaccurately rates defense, and it's not particularly close. Any system that makes Adam Jones a MUCH WORSE defensive player than Miguel Cabrera (-0.3 dWAR) is simply not working. The gap between Cabrera and Jones is 1.4 (or the total season value of Nick Markakis).
I can't be more clear than this: WAR is wrong. And it's not just a little wrong. It's a lot wrong.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 8:32 am to Baloo
quote:
I can't be more clear than this: WAR is wrong. And it's not just a little wrong. It's a lot wrong.
Fair enough. I don't disagree. I don't disagree that defensive stats are way off and practically useless at this point. I guess my main problem is your denial that it is possible that elite defensive value can be worth ~1/4-1/2 of what an elite offensive player is. I think it's possible.
Do you have a problem with the offensive component of WAR or is it just the defensive component?
Posted on 9/26/12 at 8:43 am to Friend of OBUDan
I like oWAR if we are trying to look at one statistic here. We all know that Trout is way ahead of Miggy in defensive skill and importance. It is just too hard to accurately quantify that difference at this time unless we simply list all the counting stats.
My vote would go for Miggy because I think playing less games penalizes Trout (and I think that Miggy has had a slightly more impressive year). He was there for less games to help his team win games. Miggy has been in the lineup pretty much everyday, sober or drunk, to help his team win.
The offensive production between the two seems to be fairly even, and I think Miggy surging while Trout is "floundering" pulls the race pretty even.
Another thing that is crazy is that Hamilton is not even in the conversation. 2nd in RBI, 1st in HR... Four months ago, this board thought Hamilton was a better hitter than Ted Williams.
My vote would go for Miggy because I think playing less games penalizes Trout (and I think that Miggy has had a slightly more impressive year). He was there for less games to help his team win games. Miggy has been in the lineup pretty much everyday, sober or drunk, to help his team win.
The offensive production between the two seems to be fairly even, and I think Miggy surging while Trout is "floundering" pulls the race pretty even.
Another thing that is crazy is that Hamilton is not even in the conversation. 2nd in RBI, 1st in HR... Four months ago, this board thought Hamilton was a better hitter than Ted Williams.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 8:44 am to Friend of OBUDan
I think the oWAR is useful as a blunt instrument. It gives you a nice starting point, and it groups players roughly by value. I don't think it has pinpoint accuracy, but no one claims it does. I think it also runs into the problem of taking a complex thing with lots of variables and trying to bring it down to just one value. Cabrera is a patient power hitter who drives in runs. Trout is a speedy contact hitter who is a terrific table setter. Comparing them on the same scale is bound to fail because they derive their value in such different ways.
It's like rating whether pizza or steak is better. Both are delicious, and it depends on what you're looking for that evening.
I am NOT saying, to be clear, that Trout does not deserve the MVP. I honestly think it's real close and it really does come down to what I'm in the mood for. I'm just saying Trout does not deserve the MVP just because he has a big WAR advantage. that advantage is primarily derived from his defensive rating, which I completely discard as worthless (the rating, not defense).
It's like rating whether pizza or steak is better. Both are delicious, and it depends on what you're looking for that evening.
I am NOT saying, to be clear, that Trout does not deserve the MVP. I honestly think it's real close and it really does come down to what I'm in the mood for. I'm just saying Trout does not deserve the MVP just because he has a big WAR advantage. that advantage is primarily derived from his defensive rating, which I completely discard as worthless (the rating, not defense).
Posted on 9/26/12 at 8:45 am to Friend of OBUDan
quote:
I guess my main problem is your denial that it is possible that elite defensive value can be worth ~1/4-1/2 of what an elite offensive player is.
It is not between .25-.5 of an elite offensive player. It is 1 elite offensive player. Adam Jones is elite. Prince Fielder is elite. That simply seems to be way too much of a difference.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 9:43 am to Baloo
Good points and discussion.
Really difficult to evaluate defense. Even more than player A to player B comparisons, what drives me crazy is the oscillating values of a single player.
Using dWar for Michael Bourn, he's a net positive defensive player, but that's built almost exclusively on the back of two superb seasons (2010 and this year). Other wise, he's something like a 1 win defensive player?
So really you run into a couple of issues:
1) Is the stat really just that bad?
I'd say this is the most likely explanation.
2) Is it really just that hard to repeat good defensive performance?
There's so many more variables to playing defense. Weather, parks, pitchers, etc. Hitting is far more routine and straight forward. The number of possible outcomes is drastically smaller than playing defense.
So, that does play a factor. It's hard to be a really great defensive outfielder year in and year out.
Well, unless your name is Andruw Jones or Willie Mays.
ETA: There ARE stats that work. I'm just convinced they aren't available to the public. Jonah Keri discusses the advanced defensive metrics the Rays use in The Extra 2%. The Rays have been super successful with a decent lineup and a good (but not superb) pitching staff for a while now. Their defense matters.
Really difficult to evaluate defense. Even more than player A to player B comparisons, what drives me crazy is the oscillating values of a single player.
Using dWar for Michael Bourn, he's a net positive defensive player, but that's built almost exclusively on the back of two superb seasons (2010 and this year). Other wise, he's something like a 1 win defensive player?
So really you run into a couple of issues:
1) Is the stat really just that bad?
I'd say this is the most likely explanation.
2) Is it really just that hard to repeat good defensive performance?
There's so many more variables to playing defense. Weather, parks, pitchers, etc. Hitting is far more routine and straight forward. The number of possible outcomes is drastically smaller than playing defense.
So, that does play a factor. It's hard to be a really great defensive outfielder year in and year out.
Well, unless your name is Andruw Jones or Willie Mays.
ETA: There ARE stats that work. I'm just convinced they aren't available to the public. Jonah Keri discusses the advanced defensive metrics the Rays use in The Extra 2%. The Rays have been super successful with a decent lineup and a good (but not superb) pitching staff for a while now. Their defense matters.
This post was edited on 9/26/12 at 9:45 am
Posted on 9/26/12 at 10:01 am to OBUDan
I like TEAM defensive stats like Defensive Efficiency, but I think individual defensive stats will always be imprecise because it is too dependent on other people. It's not like hitting, which is an isolated matchup. Defensive performance is interdependent. I think it's a fallacy to say that a guy is "good defensively" except at the more extreme ends. Most players are good at certain things and bad at others. It's a matter of putting him in a place to accentuate his strengths and his weaknesses.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 10:08 am to Baloo
I'm hoping that Mauer stays on his tear, and takes the batting title from Cabrerra (.003 separates them currently), and Hamilton maintains a HR edge; it would take away the drum beat of 'Triple Crown' and give Trout the decisive edge he needs to close this out.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 10:30 am to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
Adam Jones is elite
You and I have different definitions of elite. I was using ~7 WAR as baseline for elite. .25-.5 of that figure seems possible to me.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 10:40 am to Friend of OBUDan
quote:
You and I have different definitions of elite. I was using ~7 WAR as baseline for elite.
Only three players have a 7 WAR this season. And Cabrera's not one of them.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 11:13 am to Baloo
quote:
Baloo
Almost everyone agrees that Trout and Cabrera's offensive production has been comparable. Then I look at defensive where Trout is so far ahead of Cabrera that its ridiculous.
That is why I vote Trout for MVP. I know the only reason this is even a discussion is because he's a rookie while caberea is a vet and people love outdated random collection of stats such as the TC.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 11:18 am to barry
yea I was about to say
fine, let's throw dWAR out. It doesn't take a genius to watch Trout play and come to the conclusion that he is better at playing in the outfield than Cabrera is at playing third base
fine, let's throw dWAR out. It doesn't take a genius to watch Trout play and come to the conclusion that he is better at playing in the outfield than Cabrera is at playing third base
Posted on 9/26/12 at 12:11 pm to Baloo
Yeah.
I guess my only bone of contention is your refusal to acknowledge any real value from great D. To me, if a great (to be more inclusive than elite) offensive player has roughly a 5.5 oWAR, it stands to reason a great defensive player could be worth 1.5 dWAR. I don't disagree that right now, the tools the public has available to it are imperfect when analyzing defensive value, so I guess I'm speaking more theoretically than anything.
What kind of value do you think defense could have if you don't think the numbers currently used are possible?
I guess my only bone of contention is your refusal to acknowledge any real value from great D. To me, if a great (to be more inclusive than elite) offensive player has roughly a 5.5 oWAR, it stands to reason a great defensive player could be worth 1.5 dWAR. I don't disagree that right now, the tools the public has available to it are imperfect when analyzing defensive value, so I guess I'm speaking more theoretically than anything.
What kind of value do you think defense could have if you don't think the numbers currently used are possible?
Posted on 9/26/12 at 12:17 pm to Friend of OBUDan
quote:
Friend of OBUDan
I dunno why by I don't trust this guy...
Posted on 9/26/12 at 12:45 pm to Friend of OBUDan
Nothing like a lawyer and a law student arguing the dynamics of WAR in relation to the value of Adam Jones.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 1:03 pm to Friend of OBUDan
quote:
I guess my only bone of contention is your refusal to acknowledge any real value from great D
I've done no such thing. Re-read my argument. I explicitly state that defense has value, we just can't measure it well. And WAR is terrible at it.
So let's say the two are equal offensively, just deriving value different ways. Cabrera played a full 6 months, and Trout didn't. No fault of his own, but he didn't play a full season, and I think people grossly underrate the value of simply playing 150-162 games.
I'm a big fan of the "slash" stats, as it gives a quick look at the picture of a player. It has some contours to it.
Cabrera: 329/394/609
Trout: 324/395/554
So... very similar only Cabrera has more power. Trout evaporates this advantage by his skills on the basepaths. I think they are just about equal offensively. So, Trout gets a big edge for his defense, which is then in turn negated by Cabrera's edge in playing time. A full month matters, and it matters a lot.
So, let's look at how they performed in the pennant race. This also matters, as the whole point is to win games, which lead to titles. How are these guys playing down the stretch, with their teams jockeying for the postseason?
September stats:
Cabrera: 329/404/718
Trout: 268/375/415
Right now, I gotta give the edge to Cabrera. The two are pretty close, but he's playing better right now, and that is my standard tiebreaker for the MVP race.
Posted on 9/26/12 at 1:12 pm to Friend of OBUDan
quote:
o me, if a great (to be more inclusive than elite) offensive player has roughly a 5.5 oWAR, it stands to reason a great defensive player could be worth 1.5 dWAR.
You changed definitions, and it didn't make it more inclusive because of it. There are only 3 players in the AL with an oWAR of 5.5 (Jones is the 3rd).
And while a defensive player could be worth 1.5 dWAR, he better be great. And I'm not convinced Trout is great defensively. He's really good, but great? Once again, WAR is calling Jones a miserable CF. It rates Trout as the 3rd best defensive player in the AL, behind Brenden Ryan and JJ Hardy. Now I'm familiar with Hardy's work, and he's a solid defender, but there is no way he should rate that highly. Hardy's not worth 2.6 WINS with his glove. I'd be shocked if its 0.6.
Trout has made 244 putouts on the season. That's about 2.5 outs/game. Are you seriously arguing making 2 catches a game is worth 1.5 WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT? I don't find that hard to believe, I find that to be factually wrong. Maybe a great shortstop could be worth 1.5 wins above replacement due to the sheer number of balls, but a CF? How many more outs is he making that a replacement level CF couldn't make?
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