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Interesting Verducci article about AL MVP
Posted on 9/25/12 at 12:16 pm
Posted on 9/25/12 at 12:16 pm
FWIW, I love this kind of conversation... and I think the MVP goes to the player on the team that makes the playoffs... the problem is what if both do or don't.
Also, I had Cabrera this year, so I vote for him...
SI
Also, I had Cabrera this year, so I vote for him...
SI
This post was edited on 9/25/12 at 12:17 pm
2
Posted on 9/25/12 at 12:27 pm to Bacciagaloop
Interesting. I would be okay either way I think, but what Trout has done as a rookie from a WAR perspective is just crazy. Add in that he didn't play in 20 games and he makes a compelling case.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 1:23 pm to DEANintheYAY
Actually, I think this highlights a problem with WAR. I'm skeptical of the One True Number, and do not like the concept of reducing a player's contribution to one number instead of a well-rounded look at all his numbers.
but using b-ref WAR, Trout has a 7.9 offensive WAR and Cabrera has a 7.4. Now, I don't think anyone argues WAR is so accurate that a 0.5 matters all that much, and you could argue either guy was as productive as the other at the plate and on the basepaths. But here's what gets me.
Total WAR:
Trout 10.4
Cabrera 6.7
WAR posits that Trout's defense is worth 3.2 wins more than Cabrera. 3.2 WAR? that's Jose Bautista's season long WAR. That would rank as the 28th most valuable player, according to WAR, in the AL. I'm sorry, there is simply no possible way this is true.
Trout is clearly better than Cabrera in the field, but his difference in value in defensive value is not the value of Jose Bautista's entire contribution as a player. That's ridiculous on its face. 3.2 wins? For an outfielder? Maybe I'd buy the case if Trout was Ozzie Smith, but even then I'd be skeptical. The value of 3.2 wins is HUGE.
And it's coming from a guy who didn't even play a full season. I think people are getting too blinded by a statistic. WAR is neat and all, but it's a rough measurement, not gospel. And I don't think it works on the defensive end at all.
but using b-ref WAR, Trout has a 7.9 offensive WAR and Cabrera has a 7.4. Now, I don't think anyone argues WAR is so accurate that a 0.5 matters all that much, and you could argue either guy was as productive as the other at the plate and on the basepaths. But here's what gets me.
Total WAR:
Trout 10.4
Cabrera 6.7
WAR posits that Trout's defense is worth 3.2 wins more than Cabrera. 3.2 WAR? that's Jose Bautista's season long WAR. That would rank as the 28th most valuable player, according to WAR, in the AL. I'm sorry, there is simply no possible way this is true.
Trout is clearly better than Cabrera in the field, but his difference in value in defensive value is not the value of Jose Bautista's entire contribution as a player. That's ridiculous on its face. 3.2 wins? For an outfielder? Maybe I'd buy the case if Trout was Ozzie Smith, but even then I'd be skeptical. The value of 3.2 wins is HUGE.
And it's coming from a guy who didn't even play a full season. I think people are getting too blinded by a statistic. WAR is neat and all, but it's a rough measurement, not gospel. And I don't think it works on the defensive end at all.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 1:50 pm to Baloo
Couldn't have said it better myself.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 1:53 pm to Baloo
quote:
I think people are getting too blinded by a statistic. WAR is neat and all, but it's a rough measurement, not gospel. And I don't think it works on the defensive end at all.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 1:55 pm to Srbtiger06
Additionally, I am Tre Cool.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 1:57 pm to Baloo
quote:well if you're using someone like Alfonso Soriano as a replacement outfielder maybe....
That's ridiculous on its face. 3.2 wins? For an outfielder?
Posted on 9/25/12 at 1:57 pm to Baloo
quote:
Additionally, I am Tre Cool.
Meh. You nailed it though. People are losing their minds over WAR and putting in ZERO context. It's a tool...not scripture.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 2:15 pm to Baloo
quote:
Baloo
This post was edited on 9/25/12 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 9/25/12 at 2:18 pm to Baloo
I do agree that WAR may be overstated a bit, but from a historical perspective it in somewhat interesting.
I think this really comes down to what you think MVP means. The Angels without Trout = garbage. They are 2 games back in the WC race because of Trout IMO.
Miggy isn't quite as important to the Tigers in my opinion.
I think this really comes down to what you think MVP means. The Angels without Trout = garbage. They are 2 games back in the WC race because of Trout IMO.
Miggy isn't quite as important to the Tigers in my opinion.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 2:37 pm to DEANintheYAY
Yeah, without Trout, all the Angels have is the best rotation in the AL and that Pujols guy. What a load of crap. On paper, the Angels are LOADED. Their struggles this year are absolutely inexcusable, though they still might squeeze in the playoffs.
I do think Trout's been great, and I'd think long and hard about voting him for MVP. But i'm not buying the "he's the only reason the Angels win" line. If we're going with that logic, Adam Jones is the MVP because the O's aren't sniffing 500, much less the wild card, without Jones.*
*I don't think Jones is the MVP.
I do think Trout's been great, and I'd think long and hard about voting him for MVP. But i'm not buying the "he's the only reason the Angels win" line. If we're going with that logic, Adam Jones is the MVP because the O's aren't sniffing 500, much less the wild card, without Jones.*
*I don't think Jones is the MVP.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:06 pm to DEANintheYAY
quote:
Miggy isn't quite as important to the Tigers in my opinion.
......dude
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:12 pm to Baloo
quote:
Baloo
I give you a total WAR of 20.
Excellent analysis as usual.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:15 pm to Baloo
Angels record without Trout illustrates his importance IMO.
And let's not forget that Detroit has Verlander and 3 other players besides Miggy batting .300.
And regarding the pitching staff...not sure what the #s are looking at SPs only, but Detroit has better overall pitching stats.
And let's not forget that Detroit has Verlander and 3 other players besides Miggy batting .300.
And regarding the pitching staff...not sure what the #s are looking at SPs only, but Detroit has better overall pitching stats.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:16 pm to DEANintheYAY
And just so I'm being clear I'm not advocating either way because both have had great years. I think it really depends on how you define MVP. This discussion isn't a new one.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:18 pm to DEANintheYAY
quote:
And let's not forget that Detroit has Verlander and 3 other players besides Miggy batting .300.
LAAAAA has 6 guys with an OPS+ of 110 or greater. 2 below 100.
Detroit has 4 over 110 and 4 under 100.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:19 pm to Srbtiger06
Co-MVP only solution for race this tight
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:35 pm to Bacciagaloop
If I had to vote my top 10, I'd go...
1) Cabrera
2) Trout
3) Hamilton
4) Beltre
5) Encarnacion
6) Jones
7) Cano
8) Fielder
9) Konerko
10) Pujols
Then guys like Willingham, Jeter, Butler, etc.
1) Cabrera
2) Trout
3) Hamilton
4) Beltre
5) Encarnacion
6) Jones
7) Cano
8) Fielder
9) Konerko
10) Pujols
Then guys like Willingham, Jeter, Butler, etc.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:42 pm to tduecen
quote:
Co-MVP only solution for race this tight
Or we could have a vote like we have had for the past 75 years or so and abide by the results. Just a suggestion.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:46 pm to Baloo
quote:
Or we could have a vote like we have had for the past 75 years or so and abide by the results. Just a suggestion.
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