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If Utah & Oregon both win this weekend will we see a PAC 12 team in the playoffs?
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:06 am
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:06 am
Both have tough games on the road this week, Utah is at Washington and Oregon is at USC. If they both win, both have very manageable schedules for the rest of the year. Assuming they can take care of business it would set up a PAC 12 championship with both teams 11-1.
As it stands right now, both are in the top 10 so they are already in striking distance to sneak into the top 4. With Georgia/Florida, Bama/LSU, and OSU/PSU still to be played there will be major shakeups to the top 10.
It’ll be interesting to see how the committee would rate a 12-1 Oregon PAC12 Champ vs a 12-1 Oklahoma Big 12 Champ vs a 11-1 LSU with a close loss to Bama.
I say in that scenario Oregon would get the nod, although I believe LSU SHOULD, as they are the best team out of those three.
As it stands right now, both are in the top 10 so they are already in striking distance to sneak into the top 4. With Georgia/Florida, Bama/LSU, and OSU/PSU still to be played there will be major shakeups to the top 10.
It’ll be interesting to see how the committee would rate a 12-1 Oregon PAC12 Champ vs a 12-1 Oklahoma Big 12 Champ vs a 11-1 LSU with a close loss to Bama.
I say in that scenario Oregon would get the nod, although I believe LSU SHOULD, as they are the best team out of those three.
15
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:08 am to zzgobucky
A one loss Oregon with a win over Utah should probably get in
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:12 am to zzgobucky
I can't see it. I believe one of Ohio State/ Penn state will get in. Clemson is a lock if they do not lose. A 1 loss LSU or Bama will get in over either of those teams.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:12 am to zzgobucky
if lsu beats bama, then the pac 12 is screwed.
if bama beats lsu, then the pac 12 has a decent chance.
it should be the other way around, but it's not.
if bama beats lsu, then the pac 12 has a decent chance.
it should be the other way around, but it's not.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:17 am to UNO
Oregon lost to Auburn. LSU beat Auburn and Florida already. Even in your scenario there is no way a 1 loss pac 12 is going to jump either of those teams.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:27 am to Dantheman504
A one loss Alabama not winning their division with their schedule is not deserving.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:29 am to bisonduck
quote:
A one loss Alabama not winning their division with their schedule is not deserving.
correct but they would get in anyway.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:30 am to bisonduck
I dont exactly disagree, but a 1 loss team whose only loss is to #1 or #2 won't move out of the top 4. Plus if Alabama beats Auburn it is irrelevant conaidering Oregons loss.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:32 am to bisonduck
quote:
A one loss Alabama not winning their division with their schedule is not deserving.
In theory correct.
But in reality......that won't be the case.
They (Oregon) are pretty much screwed either way since Oregon lost to Auburn who LSU beat. But then they also have to deal with the Bama bias if Bama is a one loss team and they also beat Auburn. .
This post was edited on 10/28/19 at 10:33 am
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:32 am to Dantheman504
quote:
I believe one of Ohio State/ Penn state will get in. Clemson is a lock if they do not lose.
This is the biggest obstacle to Oregon. I think they'd beat Oklahoma out with one loss.
OSU or PSU plus Clemson leave two slots, and Oregon loses out to Bama or LSU. If Oregon had finished Auburn, things would be different, but they didn't.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:32 am to zzgobucky
Utah is gonna lose in Montlake.
Oregon just got 2 monkeys off their back with a road win and finally beating WSU. I think Oregon wins.
Oregon shouldn't get the nod over LSU.
LSU>UO>OU
Oregon just got 2 monkeys off their back with a road win and finally beating WSU. I think Oregon wins.
quote:
It’ll be interesting to see how the committee would rate a 12-1 Oregon PAC12 Champ vs a 12-1 Oklahoma Big 12 Champ vs a 11-1 LSU with a close loss to Bama.
quote:
I say in that scenario Oregon would get the nod, although I believe LSU SHOULD, as they are the best team out of those three.
Oregon shouldn't get the nod over LSU.
LSU>UO>OU
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:33 am to UNO
Nah
Clemson 13-0
SEC Champ 13-0
OSU 13-0
OU 12-1
Pac 12 12-1
This would be the 5 fighting for 4 (no particular order). It only gets interesting if Clemson drops one or the Big 12 champ has 2 losses. If both happens, now we're talking 2nd SEC team.
Clemson 13-0
SEC Champ 13-0
OSU 13-0
OU 12-1
Pac 12 12-1
This would be the 5 fighting for 4 (no particular order). It only gets interesting if Clemson drops one or the Big 12 champ has 2 losses. If both happens, now we're talking 2nd SEC team.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:34 am to Dantheman504
quote:
A 1 loss LSU or Bama will get in over either of those teams.
A 12-1 oregon that won a P5 conference, whose only loss was in week 1 to AU, is going to the playoffs over an 11-1 sec team that didn't win their division.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:35 am to GRTiger
quote:
Clemson 13-0
SEC Champ 13-0
OSU 13-0
OU 12-1
Pac 12 12-1
the odds of this happening are incredibly low, though. it's probably not even the most likely specific outcome, either, but i dont know what is.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:36 am to Dantheman504
The Playoff committee has consistently rewarded winning a P5 conference. Ohio State and Bama got in without winning their divisions because their records were better than the remaining P5 Champs. Notre Dame has appeared only when going undefeated.
Based on the results from this past weekend, Baylor has a legit shot at going undefeated. It’s a tall order, but they get both OU and Texas in Waco. If they don’t lose, they’re in.
A one loss Pac 12 Champ is in over a one loss division runner up. A one loss Big XII team gets in similarly.
The Committee cannot justify putting a one loss division runner up over a one loss P5 Champ.
Based on the results from this past weekend, Baylor has a legit shot at going undefeated. It’s a tall order, but they get both OU and Texas in Waco. If they don’t lose, they’re in.
A one loss Pac 12 Champ is in over a one loss division runner up. A one loss Big XII team gets in similarly.
The Committee cannot justify putting a one loss division runner up over a one loss P5 Champ.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:39 am to zzgobucky
Again, there is SO MUCH FOOTBALL to be played still.
In the last 3 weeks we have seen:
1. Wisky lose to a 30 point dog Illinois team
2. UGA lose at home to a huge dog South Carolina team
3. OU lose on the road to KSU in a game that wasn't as close as the final indicated.
Based on those results, I'm not planning for OSU to be in anything other than the outback bowl as of now. Illinois/USCe and KSU are probably combined 12-12 or something like that. They beat 3 of the teams that we thought had real playoff potential at the end of September.
In the last 3 weeks we have seen:
1. Wisky lose to a 30 point dog Illinois team
2. UGA lose at home to a huge dog South Carolina team
3. OU lose on the road to KSU in a game that wasn't as close as the final indicated.
Based on those results, I'm not planning for OSU to be in anything other than the outback bowl as of now. Illinois/USCe and KSU are probably combined 12-12 or something like that. They beat 3 of the teams that we thought had real playoff potential at the end of September.
This post was edited on 10/28/19 at 10:44 am
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:40 am to GRTiger
Oklahoma is out buddy... Pac 12 has maybe a 20% chance in my eyes.
Best case scenario for me would be Penn State beating Ohio State, Lsu and Auburn beating Bama, and Florida beating Georgia while losing to LSU twice.
That would make it
#1 LSU
#2 Penn State
#3 Clemson
#4 ??? (Florida, Oregon, Utah, Ohio State)
Would cause a lot of chaos.
Best case scenario for me would be Penn State beating Ohio State, Lsu and Auburn beating Bama, and Florida beating Georgia while losing to LSU twice.
That would make it
#1 LSU
#2 Penn State
#3 Clemson
#4 ??? (Florida, Oregon, Utah, Ohio State)
Would cause a lot of chaos.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:40 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
the odds of this happening are incredibly low, though. it's probably not even the most likely specific outcome, either,
Well, Clemson 13-0 is pretty damn likely. The most likely outcome for the SEC is either undefeated Bama or LSU. OSU has one or two more tough ones, but they look dominant. Without looking, I'd wager them running the table has higher odds than not. OU looked shitty and could do so again, so I'll say that is the low man on the odds of outcome. Pac 12 still has 2 chances to get a 12-1 team, short of a conf champ meltdown.
I won't argue the odds of this happening exactly are high, but I'd bet it is the most likely outcome out of other scenarios.
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:41 am to zzgobucky
Utah's non conference schedule will keep them out IMO
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:41 am to Dantheman504
No. Oregon’s loss was the first game of the year. Also, Bama would have no marquee win.
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