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re: Guy could win $30K on MNC if AU wins
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:22 am to Walt OReilly
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:22 am to Walt OReilly
put 30k on money line? profit?
2
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:23 am to LesMilesMorePryor
Well, if Auburn wins, then no he didn't make a profit. 
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:24 am to LesMilesMorePryor
quote:
put 30k on money line? profit?
Nah.
Put $15K on Oregon +3.
Automatically profits $15K, guaranteed.
And if Auburn wins by 3, I believe he profits the full $30K, unless I'm missing something obvious, lol.
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:25 am to Walt OReilly
quote:
That guy needs to put 15K on the Oregon money line
I'm not much of a bettor, but wouldn't it be better to bet on Oregon +3 for $15k rather than the money line? That would include Auburn winning by 3 or less and Oregon winning the game, so he'd have a better chance of winning and could even win both bets. I've never hedged a huge bet before, but would this not be the way to go?
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:26 am to TiGeRTeRRoR
yeah but juice would suck on 10 or 15K
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:43 am to TiGeRTeRRoR
quote:
I'm not much of a bettor, but wouldn't it be better to bet on Oregon +3 for $15k rather than the money line? That would include Auburn winning by 3 or less and Oregon winning the game, so he'd have a better chance of winning and could even win both bets. I've never hedged a huge bet before, but would this not be the way to go?
I don't know the exact numbers, but the only reason to bet moneyline is you'd get a little more $$ if Oregon wins with the moneyline than if they win and you just bet +3. However, I can't imagine it'd be that much more, and if you bet Oregon +3, and Auburn wins by 1 or 2, you hit the absolute jackpot.
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:46 am to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:
Auburn wins by 1 or 2, you hit the absolute jackpot.
Thats of course best case scenario but money line would be the best play because of juice and they will be +110 or 115 so could win more/ not have to put up as much
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:48 am to shel311
quote:
And if Auburn wins by 3, I believe he profits the full $30K, unless I'm missing something obvious, lol.
If he bets $15k on Oregon +3, he profits around $45k if Auburn wins by 1 or 2. If he does that, and either Oregon wins or Auburn wins by more than 3, he profits around $15k (I'm not a bettor, so I'm not particularly aware of how much the "interest" or whatever it's called is, that's just an approximation). However, keep in mind, if he doesn't do anything and Auburn wins, he profits 30k, so he essentially "loses" 15k, there.
Personally, I guess it depends on who you think will win, but I wouldn't put too much money on Oregon +3. I'd put a little, but I rode Auburn here, I'm gonna stay with them, plus I think they'll win by 10-14. It's a good idea to put around 5-10k on Oregon, so you don't get completely screwed if they win (plus, as mentioned, you can make even more $$ if Auburn wins by 1 or 2), but I wouldn't put a lot on it, personally.
This post was edited on 12/9/10 at 12:50 am
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:50 am to Buckeye Fan 19
if that were me i would most likely put between 5-8K on oregon. most likely the money line
Posted on 12/9/10 at 1:11 am to TiGeRTeRRoR
quote:Yea you have a chance of winning both BUT that chance is very slim.
I'm not much of a bettor, but wouldn't it be better to bet on Oregon +3 for $15k rather than the money line?
If he puts 15K on the money line he wins $19,500 if Oregon wins 30K if Auburn wins (minus 15K).
If he puts 15K on +3, he wins $14,285 of Oregon wins or losses by 2 or less.
The odds of Auburn winning by 1 or 2 are much less and I would rather have an extra 4K in my pocket than take the risk to win both
Posted on 12/9/10 at 1:12 am to TigerTatorTots
exactly
Posted on 12/9/10 at 1:16 am to wish i was tebow
yup gotta hedge that motherfricker.
Posted on 12/9/10 at 1:16 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:
If he puts 15K on the money line he wins $19,500 if Oregon wins 30K if Auburn wins (minus 15K).
If he puts 15K on +3, he wins $14,285 of Oregon wins or losses by 2 or less.
Ah, thanks.
Posted on 12/9/10 at 2:43 am to TiGeRTeRRoR
Las Vegas Hilton Superbook Manager is Jay Kornegay, one of the best and most accommodating in the biz, formerly at Imperial Palace. They offer the best prop odds in LV.
If this Auburn futures backer is a common sized bettor or just an Aubie/SEC homer(as most max play $300 to $500 to 1K futures tix are bought by pros or whales), then he should not let it ride, but rather hedge in some form. If he is a pro or a whale, he assuredly will either wager much more and/or hedge in some form by gametime.
If he wants to take a serious attempt at a hedge, he should play some miniscule Oregon moneyline, yet bypass at +3, as that is probably a throwaway play, should Aubie win the game..
**Note**..all six BCS era SEC teams have won and covered the spread in their BCSNCG games. And five of the six SEC teams in "default title game bowls" and/or exact #1 vs #2 national title games the twenty years prior to the birth of the BCS, also won and covered.**
What he should do for most of his hedge, is something which isn't usually the best way to hedge. That is play Oregon on Alternate Pointspread bets of +7 and +10 minus their hefty price tags(they can vary wildly depending upon the amount of bettors and dollars are wagered at the more sophisticated books that adjust the moneyline prices attached upon action), for what he is comfortable risking, as this will provide a legit chance at the fat middle. Or risk that the game has a 'workable' halftime margin and lead, so that the BMs may offer a nice Oregon 2nd Half line that he can take advantage of..this option may or may not be there when the time comes.
Oregon is a great 2nd Half/4th Qtr team, outscoring opponents greatly here. And Auburn has largely just won many games this year, not closing out many teams by huge margin, due to their adequate yet non-dominant Defense.
Also, at 100/1 odds and over $9,999, he is gonna CTR, Uncle Sam gonna take a big bite. In the old Vegas, one could ask for sportsbook casino chips, and not cash out all at once. Not now, today they want a blood sample, your birth certificate, and first-born, just to place a $500 or more wager. Vegas is now ran by corporate bean-counters that abide strict Gaming Commission and Fed guidelines.
If this Auburn futures backer is a common sized bettor or just an Aubie/SEC homer(as most max play $300 to $500 to 1K futures tix are bought by pros or whales), then he should not let it ride, but rather hedge in some form. If he is a pro or a whale, he assuredly will either wager much more and/or hedge in some form by gametime.
If he wants to take a serious attempt at a hedge, he should play some miniscule Oregon moneyline, yet bypass at +3, as that is probably a throwaway play, should Aubie win the game..
**Note**..all six BCS era SEC teams have won and covered the spread in their BCSNCG games. And five of the six SEC teams in "default title game bowls" and/or exact #1 vs #2 national title games the twenty years prior to the birth of the BCS, also won and covered.**
What he should do for most of his hedge, is something which isn't usually the best way to hedge. That is play Oregon on Alternate Pointspread bets of +7 and +10 minus their hefty price tags(they can vary wildly depending upon the amount of bettors and dollars are wagered at the more sophisticated books that adjust the moneyline prices attached upon action), for what he is comfortable risking, as this will provide a legit chance at the fat middle. Or risk that the game has a 'workable' halftime margin and lead, so that the BMs may offer a nice Oregon 2nd Half line that he can take advantage of..this option may or may not be there when the time comes.
Oregon is a great 2nd Half/4th Qtr team, outscoring opponents greatly here. And Auburn has largely just won many games this year, not closing out many teams by huge margin, due to their adequate yet non-dominant Defense.
Also, at 100/1 odds and over $9,999, he is gonna CTR, Uncle Sam gonna take a big bite. In the old Vegas, one could ask for sportsbook casino chips, and not cash out all at once. Not now, today they want a blood sample, your birth certificate, and first-born, just to place a $500 or more wager. Vegas is now ran by corporate bean-counters that abide strict Gaming Commission and Fed guidelines.
This post was edited on 12/9/10 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 12/9/10 at 7:24 am to TheRoarRestoredInBR
quote:
And five of the six SEC teams in "default title game bowls" and/or exact #1 vs #2 national title games the twenty years prior to the birth of the BCS, also won and covered.
I guess that one exception would be Nebraska humbling Steve Spurrier and Florida in 1995.
Posted on 12/9/10 at 9:08 am to Lester Earl
he already has won ...... he could take Oregon +3 for 15000 and possibly walk away with 45k if Aubby wins by 1 or 2 .... or 15 k no matter what.
good hedging position if ive ever seen one.
good hedging position if ive ever seen one.
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:29 pm to NOTORlOUSD
Notorious, you are correct.
JW, that is throwing good money after bad, should he like Auburn to win the title, which apparently he did. He needs a larger middle window. And shouldn't hedge for anywhere near 50% of his play, if he likes Aub. This isn't the NFL, in terms of games coming 3.
JW, that is throwing good money after bad, should he like Auburn to win the title, which apparently he did. He needs a larger middle window. And shouldn't hedge for anywhere near 50% of his play, if he likes Aub. This isn't the NFL, in terms of games coming 3.
Posted on 12/9/10 at 12:50 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:
If he bets $15k on Oregon +3, he profits around $45k if Auburn wins by 1 or 2.
yes, but that is unlikely and a spread bet is -110, meaning hed have to beat 16500 to win 15000.
ML gets odds, probably soemthing like +125-+140 I'd guess
Posted on 12/9/10 at 1:04 pm to H-Town Tiger
so if he bet $15K on Oregon and Auburn wins by 1, then he'll win $45,000
if he bet 15K on Oregon and Auburn loses, then he'll win $15,000??
if he doesnt bet and Auburn loses in the NC, then he's out 30,000
if he bet 15K on Oregon and Auburn loses, then he'll win $15,000??
if he doesnt bet and Auburn loses in the NC, then he's out 30,000
Posted on 12/9/10 at 1:36 pm to PPBeastMode
quote:
Im doing something like this for next season
Betting $1000 at 100/1 odds sounds like a quick way to lose that $1000 to me.
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