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Started By
Message
re: Google Doc showing NBA MVP voting so far
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:36 pm to Boomshockalocka
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:36 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Hardens actual odds aren't what's important.
0
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:38 pm to Hawgnsincebirth55
quote:
gold metal mental gymnast
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:38 pm to Boomshockalocka
So do you completely disagree with vegas's odds on mvp? Not trying to keep talking about the hedging just seeing if you really believe that Harden has a 60% chance to win
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:44 pm to TigerBait1127
Yea. Lots of books holding tix now with westbrook at +200, +225 etc.
Plus 200 is 33% chance to win. They realise he has a better chance to win than that so they are trying to get some monies on other candidates in case westbrook hits. If they realise they have a 50% chance of paying out a +200 bet. Well they gonna move that line to try to get some bets on other candidates.
Plus 200 is 33% chance to win. They realise he has a better chance to win than that so they are trying to get some monies on other candidates in case westbrook hits. If they realise they have a 50% chance of paying out a +200 bet. Well they gonna move that line to try to get some bets on other candidates.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:45 pm to Corporal Beavis
quote:
So do you completely disagree with vegas's odds on mvp? Not trying to keep talking about the hedging just seeing if you really believe that Harden has a 60% chance to win
If you think this is going to lead to anything other than Boom bringing up how off Vegas was on Houston's odds so obviously they don't know anything, then you would be mistaken.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:47 pm to Corporal Beavis
Let me get back with you on that I need to recalculate the #s from the guys we know have votes.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:48 pm to Dawgsontop34
Never even crossed my mind. im sure you've heard the old saying about what happens when you assume. 
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:51 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:But Vegas also changes their odds as they get more information.
They lose it all if all they have is bets on Westbrook and Westbrook wins. That's why they setting an attractive line for action on James. Remember where the odds were a couple weeks ago. Those holding those Westbrook bets are in line for a big big pay day if he wins. Vegas need some non Westbrook bets to hedge against a Westbrook win. Simple really. Even elementary.
So while a couple of weeks ago Harden looked like the favorite to win the MVP, now Westbrook seems to have the edge.
Regardless of the betting, the odds makers are going to change thier odds to reflect those changes. With Westbrook as a favorite; they can't give him those worse odds.
Maybe you aren't arguing against that, but it seems that you're basing the changes solely on the betting, not the actual changes in their true odds of winning.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:51 pm to Boomshockalocka
I'm confused why you think Harden has a 60% chance to win then? He's obviously got the second best odds but by a decent margin
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:55 pm to Dawgsontop34
Medal*.
Posted on 4/13/17 at 12:28 am to okietiger
I'm sorry, but these people giving first place votes to Lebron are just copping out of a tough decision.
If you're gonna do that, at least have the decency to vote for Kawhi.
If you're gonna do that, at least have the decency to vote for Kawhi.
Posted on 4/13/17 at 12:35 am to NawlinsTiger9
I disagree. Lebron has a very strong case that he's again the best player this year.
Posted on 4/13/17 at 12:44 am to okietiger
He might just be, but if that's the criteria, then he should win every year, right?.
He just flat out hasn't had a better season than Harden or Westbrook.
He just flat out hasn't had a better season than Harden or Westbrook.
Posted on 4/13/17 at 8:24 am to Boomshockalocka
Have you bet on Harden winning? Decent odds out there for him.
Posted on 4/13/17 at 8:26 am to Epic Cajun
E I'm backing up the brinks truck as I type.
legggggggoo!!!
legggggggoo!!!
Posted on 4/13/17 at 8:31 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:Says the guy who thinks the odds wildly shifted from Westbrook as a long shot to a huge favorite just to get the money closer to even.
Again you trying to explain to me how these things works is one of the funniest things I've read here in a while
quote:I also said they change the odds when one person goes from not favored to strongly favored to win.
you just said that oddsmakers change the odds to encourage/discourage bets on one side. Which is the same thing I said.
Posted on 4/13/17 at 8:33 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:This is why the line moved.
They realise he has a better chance to win
Posted on 4/13/17 at 8:35 am to buckeye_vol
quote:Of course, because one is conceding Westbrook is the favorite, the other is not.
but it seems that you're basing the changes solely on the betting, not the actual changes in their true odds of winning.
Boom's argument boils down to him thinking Westbrook being the overwhelming Vegas favorite right now while Harden actually having the better chance to win.
Posted on 4/13/17 at 8:37 am to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
He might just be, but if that's the criteria, then he should win every year, right?.
He just flat out hasn't had a better season than Harden or Westbrook
I don't disagree, but he is averaging a career high in rebounds and assists. 3rd highest fg%, 3pt% and eFG% in gis career. His defense has fallen off though
NBA fans almost take for granted how good James is. I am a Westbrook homer, but it is hard for me to fault someone if they voted for LeBron.
Posted on 4/13/17 at 8:37 am to shel311
No I never said that
Or anything close to it. reading not your strong suit I take it
Or anything close to it. reading not your strong suit I take it
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