re: Going for 2 when you score a TD down 14

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I would use 98 for the XP and 40-45 for the 2 point conversion

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XP make rate since the change has actually never been 95% yet.

2PT make rate over the last 5 years has been 49%.

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Going for 2 early with Eli and that putrid O line is dumb, IF you factor in that Eli will later try 2 unsuccessful sneaks with no TO's, while Saquon Barkley is standing behind him. Because math

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Going for 2 is independent of the craptastic play calling trying to punch it in at the end of the game.

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This happens all the time. It's just blatant common sense that you go for 2 early, because if you miss it you can adjust your gameplan.

Going for it late and missing it, you instantly lose and have no chance to adjust.

Yet people STILL don't get it. The depth of brainwashing when it comes to conventional football "strategy" is deep.

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the side that people need to account with this thing is emotions. It cannot be discounted. Making a "one possession game" absolutely affects your team and the opponent.

Now does that effect overweigh the logical thing to do by going for two early? Idk.

Stop defending Pat. Fricking fire that moron already will ya Mara

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Going for 2 is independent of the craptastic play calling trying to punch it in at the end of the game.

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I'm not a math guy, but there has to be a way to factor craptastic playcalling and terrible clock management into the equation.

The problem is the sample size for the specific offense in defense. In the NBA analytics work because everyone takes a lot of shots so you know a guy's percentage from 3. So if a guy shoots 40% from 3 then let him chuck. But you obviously don't won't a guy who shoots 25% from 3 launching shot after shot because he has to shoot over 33% for the math to work.

So does the math work for the Giants' offense on short yardage plays? That's the problem with going by league-wide percentages. The Falcons' defense is shite, though, so their success percentage is that situation probably low.

Anyway, in the NBA the volume of games means analytics work because they can be broken down for all kinds of situations. Not sure that works as well for the NFL.

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Like if they're down by 15 with 5 to go, they'll kick an XP, even thought you'll have to get a 2 PT conversion eventually. Math says go for it asap, that way you know your predicament and can possibly adjust accordingly.

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I've brought that up many times on here, that exact 15 point scenario.

It's usually met with most disagreeing, Boom being the loudest.

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I'm defending math, not Pat. I couldn't care less about the Giants or their coach.

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Then you are as much of a moron as Pat

Here is why I disagree...

The math works obviously, but those are league averages over years of games. That’s a large sample size.

The odds are totally different though when talking about one individual game. Many things aren’t taken into account such as the teams playing, specific matchups, strengths and weaknesses of the teams playing, and the context of what has happened in the game so far.

In general teams should go for 2 more. However, the chess match between coaching staffs is also important.

For instance,

Has Atlanta shown a tendency to play the game differently between a 6,7, or 8 point lead late in the 4th quarter? Is there any one of those that are advantageous to you? The behavior you want the other team to engage in is to run 3 times up the middle and punt the ball back.

It may be that Atlanta goes into more of a prevent mode being up 8 (instead of 7 or 6), thinking they get an additional chance to stop the 2 point conversion - in which case you should go for 2, as this increases your chance of getting that second touchdown to begin with, and failing to make it doesn't change anything Atlanta does.

It may also be the case that up 7 or 8 Atlanta plays conservative (i.e. will concede overtime), but will get aggressive again up 6. If at this point your defense is gassed and struggling to get pressure on an accurate QB - you may be more likely to concede the additional score required to put the game out of reach if you go for 2 and make it.

So, I think you end up with the following matrix:

If ATL is always tends conservative (or aggressive)with a 1 score lead (no matter if the lead is 6,7, or 8): Go for 2

If ATL is aggressive with a 6 pt. lead but conservative with a 7 point lead: Go for 1

If ATL is conservative with an 8 point lead, but aggressive with a 6 or 7 point lead: Go go for 2

In this instance, Atlanta driving down the field and scoring even with an 8 point lead and < 5 minutes in the game kinda proves going for 2 was the right call.