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Going for 2 when you score a TD down 14
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:54 pm
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:54 pm
Let’s do the math here. Let’s say an XP has 95% chance of success and a 2 point conversion has a 50% chance of success. This assumes no other points are scored except those two TDs.
Kicking XP
Two XPs are good- 90.25%
Chance make the first and Miss the second- 4.75%
Chance miss the first, 2 PC is successful- 2.5%
Chance miss the first, 2 PC is no good- 2.5%
Summary- 92.75% chance of OT, 7.25% chance of losing
Going for two
Make the first 2 PC, XP is good- 47.5%
Make the first 2 PC, XP is no good- 2.5%
Miss the first 2 PC, make the second- 25%
Miss both 2 PCs- 25%
Chance of winning- 47.5%, chance of OT- 27.5%, chance of losing 25%
Now let’s assume OT is a 50/50 chance at winning.
Kicking XPs=46.375% chance of winning
Going for 2= 61.25% chance of winning
There you have it, mathematical proof that going for 2 is actually the “right” decision although you will face a lot of ridicule if it doesn’t work.
I fully expect no one to follow that, but I was curious and worked it out.
Kicking XP
Two XPs are good- 90.25%
Chance make the first and Miss the second- 4.75%
Chance miss the first, 2 PC is successful- 2.5%
Chance miss the first, 2 PC is no good- 2.5%
Summary- 92.75% chance of OT, 7.25% chance of losing
Going for two
Make the first 2 PC, XP is good- 47.5%
Make the first 2 PC, XP is no good- 2.5%
Miss the first 2 PC, make the second- 25%
Miss both 2 PCs- 25%
Chance of winning- 47.5%, chance of OT- 27.5%, chance of losing 25%
Now let’s assume OT is a 50/50 chance at winning.
Kicking XPs=46.375% chance of winning
Going for 2= 61.25% chance of winning
There you have it, mathematical proof that going for 2 is actually the “right” decision although you will face a lot of ridicule if it doesn’t work.
I fully expect no one to follow that, but I was curious and worked it out.
This post was edited on 10/22/18 at 11:04 pm
17
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:55 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
Let’s say an XP has 95% chance
Not when you are kicking with a saints game ball
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:56 pm to TheWalrus
The math backs up Pat Shurmur's decision to go for two down eight points with less than five minutes to go. Going for it then gives Shurmur an informational advantage. If the Giants convert, then on their next touchdown they know they only need to kick a PAT to take the lead (assuming no other scores). If they fail, which they did, they have an opportunity to go for it again to tie. The long and short of it: converting once is much more likely than failing twice. Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics 35m ago
He’s right you know ...
He’s right you know ...
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:58 pm to TheWalrus
Many of the posters bashing Shurmur would be sucking his dick if he went for two down 20–19
Posted on 10/22/18 at 10:59 pm to TheWalrus
Espn analytics guy said the math makes sense if you want to go for the win.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:03 pm to TheWalrus
There is a belief than NFL coaches will make the wrong mathematical decisions in favor of a decision that keeps their team "in the game" the longest.
Like if they're down by 15 with 5 to go, they'll kick an XP, even thought you'll have to get a 2 PT conversion eventually. Math says go for it asap, that way you know your predicament and can possibly adjust accordingly. Conventional coaching kicks the XP first.
Like if they're down by 15 with 5 to go, they'll kick an XP, even thought you'll have to get a 2 PT conversion eventually. Math says go for it asap, that way you know your predicament and can possibly adjust accordingly. Conventional coaching kicks the XP first.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:04 pm to TheWalrus
Going for 2 after the first TD when down 14 has long been proven to be mathematically correct.
It won't make any difference to the buffoons. Coaches, the media, and the fans are brainwashed into doing things a certain way (a wrong way)
It won't make any difference to the buffoons. Coaches, the media, and the fans are brainwashed into doing things a certain way (a wrong way)
This post was edited on 10/22/18 at 11:59 pm
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:05 pm to slackster
Not only if he’s going for the win but add in the element of being down 6 with 4:40 left.. they get ball back quick and drive only to stall and now they have option of going for 3 if they still have two minute warning..
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:06 pm to slackster
quote:
There is a belief than NFL coaches will make the wrong mathematical decisions in favor of a decision that keeps their team "in the game" the longest.
Like if they're down by 15 with 5 to go, they'll kick an XP, even thought you'll have to get a 2 PT conversion eventually. Math says go for it asap, that way you know your predicament and can possibly adjust accordingly. Conventional coaching kicks the XP first.
This happens all the time. It's just blatant common sense that you go for 2 early, because if you miss it you can adjust your gameplan.
Going for it late and missing it, you instantly lose and have no chance to adjust.
Yet people STILL don't get it. The depth of brainwashing when it comes to conventional football "strategy" is deep.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:07 pm to TROLA
quote:
Not only if he’s going for the win but add in the element of being down 6 with 4:40 left.. they get ball back quick and drive only to stall and now they have option of going for 3 if they still have two minute warning..
It makes alot of sense. I'm fine with it. Hell, I'd ask for it.
Seems like the NFL is starting to get some out of the box decision makers, it's just not going their way so far.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:15 pm to TheWalrus
Regardless of being down 7 or 8 points, they still needed to stop the falcons from putting more points up and draining more of the clock.
It really wasn’t that bad of a decision. They could’ve easily lost 23-20 by getting 7 twice and failing to recover the onside kick at the end.
It really wasn’t that bad of a decision. They could’ve easily lost 23-20 by getting 7 twice and failing to recover the onside kick at the end.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:17 pm to TheWalrus
Booger is a moron
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:19 pm to PEPE
Ya the math checks out, but I suppose having your players "believe" the math is another thing. If they don't, they might pack shite in early. That's largely due to the perception, however misplaced, that things just got even harder.
Different situation some years back IIRC OU was down 15 with little time on the clock. OU scored and Stoops went for two with roughly two minutes remaining. Not sure if math supported him, but when they failed the 2pt, all their emotion momentum immediately died and the game was over.
Managing math and managing player emotions (illogical as they may be) can be difficult.
Different situation some years back IIRC OU was down 15 with little time on the clock. OU scored and Stoops went for two with roughly two minutes remaining. Not sure if math supported him, but when they failed the 2pt, all their emotion momentum immediately died and the game was over.
Managing math and managing player emotions (illogical as they may be) can be difficult.
This post was edited on 10/22/18 at 11:20 pm
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:21 pm to SirWinston
Booger goes to extreme either moron or elite every other time he talks.. The problem was that none of the other announcers had the knowledge or balls to challenge his ridiculous antiquated thinking.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:51 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
Let’s say an XP has 95% chance of success and a 2 point conversion has a 50% chance of success.
I think the formula leaves out alternate outcomes but if these are the success rates then going for the 2 PC should be the default position.
I'd rather get 50% of 2 point attempts than 95% of 1 point attempts.
I've long suspected that going for it on 4th is the correct move more often than coaches do. I think as the NFL further adopts analytics based decisions that you'll see conventional wisdom change where the math supports it.. which is great for fans if it means more risk-taking.
Posted on 10/22/18 at 11:59 pm to TheWalrus
Analytics will be the death of sports.
Posted on 10/23/18 at 12:10 am to TheWalrus
quote:
Let’s say an XP has 95% chance of success and a 2 point conversion has a 50% chance of success.
I would use 98 for the XP and 40-45 for the 2 point conversion
Posted on 10/23/18 at 12:24 am to TheWalrus
There’s more to a game than percentages. That’s the beauty of sport. There’s human error, emotion, heart, fatigue, toughness, etc.
As someone mentioned, if your players think you are crazy, you have bigger issues.
Say the Giants do get a chance and make it 20-18. They miss the 2-pointer again, and all of a sudden a coach’s hit seat gets going.
As someone mentioned, if your players think you are crazy, you have bigger issues.
Say the Giants do get a chance and make it 20-18. They miss the 2-pointer again, and all of a sudden a coach’s hit seat gets going.
Posted on 10/23/18 at 2:05 am to TheWalrus
I thought the success rate for 2 point conversions was just around 35% or so?
Posted on 10/23/18 at 2:10 am to TexasTiger08
quote:
and all of a sudden a coach’s hit seat gets going.
This is almost certainly the biggest reason coaches stick to conventional strategy, to simply avoid criticism.
Doing things the conventional way, the way they've always been done, shields you from the most criticism.
You can be completely correct in your strategy but if it's non-conventional and doesn't pan out, the dullards who don't understand simple probabilities and expected value calculations start hooting like gibbons.
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