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sacrathetic
USA Fan
Member since May 2019
508 posts

Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
Offseason Discussion: Should a team's schedule strength be judged based on the rankings of the teams they play at the time of the game or at the end of the season.

For instance, in 2019, LSU played #9 Texas in early September, but Texas ended up ranked #25 at the end of the season. Does that count as a win against a top ten team or not?

What if it's the opposite, where a team plays an unranked team early in the season who ends up finishing highly ranked? How do you judge that win?



I argue that you should judge schedules based on the ranking of the team at the time the game was played. If a team is ranked in the top ten they likely have the mojo or confidence that a team with that ranking would have. They come into the game with the mindset that they are a very good team and that psychological aspect of sport is important. Also, injuries later in the season can make a great team eventually look like a bad team.

So for that matter, I'd argue that 2019 LSU played and beat 7 top ten teams even though only 5 of them ended up in the top ten.

I'd love to hear counter arguments, though.




shel311
Nicholls St. Fan
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
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re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
End of season is better but you can entirely discount time of ranking on some situations.



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30
xiv
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
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Member since Feb 2004
38969 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
End of season. There's no data at the beginning of the season. The #9 thing is little more than a collective opinion that was more or less proven wrong. Shaky ground.


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Hester Carries
USA Fan
Member since Sep 2012
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re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
End is better but people act like teams don’t feed off their rankings and play better before their seasons drop off a bit.


dukke v
LSU Fan
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Member since Jul 2006
172974 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
End of season.


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wildtigercat93
Navy Fan
Member since Jul 2011
95543 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
A little bit of both


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Mad Dawg 2020
Georgia Fan
Member since Jun 2017
495 posts
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re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
Obviously during the season you don't know where teams will end up, so as long as the team you played when ranked X is still playing at a level near X then it is safe to go by that.

IF that team drops off heavily, then its tough to be too proud about beating them when they were wrongly ranked in the top whatever.


dukke v
LSU Fan
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
172974 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
Ask Clemson it's doesn't matter who they have played but works out for them every year.


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Packer
Wisconsin Fan
IE, California
Member since May 2017
4143 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
End of season, except when looking at a team with injuries


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mdomingue
LSU Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
11335 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
quote:

Offseason Discussion: Should a team's schedule strength be judged based on the rankings of the teams they play at the time of the game or at the end of the season.




While end of season seems like the obvious answer but in reality it has to be looked at as individual cases. Injuries can have a huge impact on a team. Early season rankings can be way off, mid season rankings tend to be better but those early rankings can skew things at times. But almost as often as early season rankings are not a good estimation of a team, the end of season rankings do not indicate how good a team was earlier in the season before losing a certain player of never recovering mentally from a beat down. The statement made that "we broke them when we kicked their butt" is not always that far fetched, I think that was particularly true with a couple of teams LSU played has played in the last couple of years.

It's a difficult thing to quantify, particularly when you use data primarily based on opinion.


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pvilleguru
Atlanta United Fan
Member since Jun 2009
54314 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
Easily at the end of the season unless said team had major injuries that caused their fall.

Take Florida State a few years ago. They started in the top 10, but their QB got injured in the first game against Alabama. If you wanted to drop FSU a little because it's possible they wouldn't have been top 10 good regardless, I'm ok with that, but I would still count it as a good win. If FSU's QB didn't get injured and they still finished outside the top 25, there's no way I would consider that a good win.
This post was edited on 2/21 at 11:49 am


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sacrathetic
USA Fan
Member since May 2019
508 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
quote:

but people act like teams don’t feed off their rankings and play better before their seasons drop off a bit


I think this point is overlooked way too much.

Texas sure as hell played as a top ten team that night against LSU. It was a great game and both teams seemed super motivated and confident.


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ChunkyLover54
Hawaii Fan
Member since Apr 2015
4748 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
end of season is obviously stronger, but ranking at time holds some weight. For example, Texas, overrated, but something can be said for the big-game vibes and prep. Also, injuries and other factors play a role. Team X can be much different in week 5 than in week 10.


wildtigercat93
Navy Fan
Member since Jul 2011
95543 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
quote:

end of season is obviously stronger, but ranking at time holds some weight. For example, Texas, overrated, but something can be said for the big-game vibes and prep. Also, injuries and other factors play a role. Team X can be much different in week 5 than in week 10.



There’s something to be said for going on the road in a tough environment and getting a win.


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lsutigers1992
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2006
21889 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
Did you know that Maryland has a top 25 win because they beat 5-7 Syracuse week 2?

And Temple has a top 25 win because they beat 3-9 Maryland week 3?


sacrathetic
USA Fan
Member since May 2019
508 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
quote:

Did you know that Maryland has a top 25 win because they beat 5-7 Syracuse week 2?

And Temple has a top 25 win because they beat 3-9 Maryland week 3?


Well, I'll be honest, that's a pretty compelling argument.



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Uptowner
LSU Fan
The OP
Member since Oct 2019
406 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
As Texas' top-ten ranking proves, preseason rankings are BS. Another recent example, from basketball, North Carolina was a preseason top 10 this year: WRONG. Today, they're in last place in the ACC.

Why should a team get credit for a win against a highly ranked fraud? The answer has to be the end of the season...


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TheDeathValley
LSU Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Sep 2010
11679 posts

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
Both with more weight to the end of the season.

A team can be a Top 10 team, let's say 3-0. They lose their QB, stumbled down the road and finish 9-4. Their final ranking is probably #20-25 if they are a P5 but they absolutely were a Top 10 team at the time the game was played.

Also, if a Top 10 loses and their natty hopes are dashed, then they could drop other games due to lack of focus, similar to UGA two years ago in the Sugar.


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Cincinnati Bowtie
San Jose State Fan
Sparta
Member since May 2008
11196 posts
 Online 

re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
quote:

xiv End of season

quote:

Peejay: end of season

This is enough for me. Definitely how they’re ranked at the time is the way to go.


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JOJO Hammer
Nicholls St. Fan
Cocodrie
Member since Nov 2010
9983 posts
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re: Determining schedule strength based on rank at time of game or at end of season
I’d say somewhere towards the end of the regular season. For example Auburn beat a top 5 team in Alabama in the last week of the season. Auburn should get credit for a top 5 win even though Bama finished outside the top 10. On the other had last season LSU beat a top 10 Miami team that tanked. LSU should not get credit for a top 10 win.


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