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re: DAT: 2024 Spring Training Thread

Posted on 3/14/24 at 1:38 pm to
Posted by 5 Deep
Crawford Boxes
Member since Jul 2010
23708 posts
Posted on 3/14/24 at 1:38 pm to
I’m already melting for Dylan Coleman making the roster then pitching in the opening series



Don’t forget Abreu will be suspended first 2 games
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
99651 posts
Posted on 3/14/24 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

I’m already melting for Dylan Coleman making the roster then pitching in the opening series


Just out that he's been optioned but Espada says he's part of the plan
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
62151 posts
Posted on 3/14/24 at 2:40 pm to
I am cautiously optimistic about Sousa. I liked what I saw last year in a limited sample. Otherwise I’m with you. Has to be some sort of small trade we can do to add one more decent guy at least. I see Espada managing the workloads of those top 3 pretty carefully which means plenty of the shite tier of our bullpen
Posted by TigerFan91
:red:
Member since Jan 2005
29057 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 8:39 am to
Couple of good little puff pieces about the M&M outfield boys that are both having very strong springs. Talks about their confidence level and what adjustments they've made at the plate. Chas said he recognized he was missing middle-middle pitches and made an adjustment to get the head out on those.

Chazzy Fizz

Jakey Rakey

With the good there is some bad, JP is still adjusting with his new mechanics and the bullpen outside of the big 3 leaves a lot to be desired on paper
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
99651 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 9:03 am to
quote:

@Chandler_Rome

The Astros remain engaged in the free-agent starting pitching market, multiple sources tell

@TheAthletic

. Owner Jim Crane coveted Blake Snell at last August's trade deadline. It's worth wondering if they may circle back





quote:

Astros GM Dana Brown: “As I’ve said multiple times, we always have our foot on the gas when it comes to winning and acquiring pitching. As long as Snell is on the market, we check in to ask what is the latest. Nothing new as of now.” -



[
quote:



@michaelschwab13

Going off the rumors, what would it take for the Astros to sign Blake Snell?

I’d imagine it would take around $30-35M a year to sign him.

What does that mean for the Astros salary and the tax?

Houston is currently around $255M, which is $18M over the threshold. Signing Snell for $35M would put Houston at $290M. That is $53M over the threshold.

Teams that are $40M over have to pay a 42.5% surcharge on overages and their first pick in the 2025 draft moves back 10 spaces.
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
62151 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 9:07 am to
I think I’d rather have Montgomery at (presumably) a lower price. This feels like the Hader thing though where you heard nothing and then suddenly there were rumors we were interested and he was signed like 24 hours later
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
99651 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 9:22 am to
quote:

Signing Snell for $35M would put Houston at $290M. That is $53M over the threshold.

Teams that are $40M over have to pay a 42.5% surcharge on overages and their first pick in the 2025 draft moves back 10 spaces.



So if my math is mathing, a $35 million Salary for Snell would mean

53M overage * 42.5% tax = $22.525 million tax penalty


35M Snell salary + 22.525M tax = $57.525 million to sign Snell plus a 10 spot draft penalty. Mate better win another Cy Young and World Series MVP.
This post was edited on 3/15/24 at 9:23 am
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
62151 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 9:25 am to
If they sign him I would think people would stop calling Crane cheap at least. Hopefully would be a shorter deal like the other FAs that have hung around
Posted by TigerFan91
:red:
Member since Jan 2005
29057 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 9:32 am to
Yea I’m really curious about these guys.

Are they willing to take a massive deal for like 1-3 years with an opt out just to make a huge nut and then hit the market again soon? I know they want the security AND the money but the market clearly doesn’t seem favorable for them
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
99651 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 9:48 am to
quote:

I think I’d rather have Montgomery at (presumably) a lower price


I thought about this as well. But the consideration would be, we have basically no cushion to keep under the overage penalties. If we add anybody, we're going over the next threshold. So if you're going over, do you go all in for the best available?


Were at $254M right now, 17M over the first 237M luxury tax threshold that adds a 20% tax for first timers. The next tax threshold is 257M. It's a 12% surcharge for $20-40 million over the base $237M. So basically any signing of a major league player puts us into the 12% surcharge category which may have been why we didn't bring back Stanek.

The next surcharge the 42.5% is 40-60 million over the 237 base. So that gives us $23 million before that threshold.
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
62151 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 10:10 am to
I think it depends on the length of the deal for me, Snell is obviously better/higher upside. I also think he's pretty volatile and could age poorly. I don't really want any part of a 6 or 7 year deal for him where his deal could age poorly and be a barrier to spending in a few years. I see Montgomery as a pretty bankable mid rotation guy.

Based on how we've operated I'd think we are interested in Snell for a similar structure to what Chapman or Bellinger signed (but more money obviously), in which case, sign me up.
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
99651 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 10:21 am to
Question arises for me, why the sudden interest in a starter this late in spring? Concerns about JV? Or is it coming from concerns about middle relief and that basically signing anyone puts us into another tax threshold so do you want to incur such a tax for an average middle reliever vs throwing in chips for a big move.
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
62151 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 10:26 am to
I think it is the latter. We have seen this happen with Crane as well where our interest is downplayed or nonexistent then suddenly we have a top target and that guy is signed or traded for shortly after, for better or worse. He likes the splashy move for sure.
Posted by wahoocs
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2004
23443 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 10:30 am to
As long as the team could unanimously vote on a Bauer signing, it would be ideal

Cheap with no terms

The marketing of Bauer and Bregman would be phenomenal. We’re already the Evil Empire, dark side of MLB

Just do it
Posted by 5 Deep
Crawford Boxes
Member since Jul 2010
23708 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 10:45 am to
At this point I’m starting to think Bauer never pitches another inning in the MLB again


It’s mind blowing that a team with a weak rotation or that is 1 starter away from being really competitive wouldn’t take a risk on him on a league minimum deal

But if it doesn’t happen this season…why would it in the future?
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
99651 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

A couple of significant updates today from Joe Espada:

- Framber Valdez will start for the Astros on Opening Day for the third consecutive year.

- José Urquidy walked off the mound after throwing 43 pitches in a minor league game today with an elbow injury. He is being evaluated by doctors.



Ah.
Posted by Floating Change Up
Member since Dec 2013
12440 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 3:01 pm to
Bauer AND Snell with JV, Javier, and Framber?

Let's go.

ETA: Urkel and LMJ to the Middle Relief roles to eat extra innings for the old guys.
This post was edited on 3/15/24 at 3:03 pm
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
80532 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 3:04 pm to
quote:

José Urquidy walked off the mound after throwing 43 pitches in a minor league game today with an elbow injury. He is being evaluated by doctors.


Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
99651 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 3:12 pm to
Posted by tigers32
Member since Mar 2012
5747 posts
Posted on 3/15/24 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

- José Urquidy walked off the mound after throwing 43 pitches in a minor league game today with an elbow injury. He is being evaluated by doctors.

I don’t like that.
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