re: Chapman throwing 102mph - what did Mariano throw?

quote:

---

If being the best closer in the history of baseball

---

quote:

---

Don't believe me? Before you bring the tar to a boil and gather more feathers, let me again cite the work of Project Retrosheet founder Dave Smith. He thoroughly and tirelessly researched games from more than seven decades and found that the rate at which teams win games with late-inning leads basically has not changed. Teams leading by one run after eight innings have gone on to win 85.7 percent of the time. That number goes up to 93.7 percent when leading by two runs, and 97.5 percent when leading by three runs.

Mull that over, and then please tell me why Rivera is so amazing for having an 89.1 percent career save rate (which, by the way, is lower than Joe Nathan's). Because, basically, Rivera was not used except in games the Yankees were going to win 88 percent of the time anyway. Actually, the percentages were usually higher than that. According to Elias, of Rivera's 652 career saves, just under a third (210) were with a one-run lead when he took the mound while 216 were with a two-run lead, 180 with a three-run lead and 46 with a lead of at least four runs.

---

quote:

---

Onviously he doesn't have the same value as a starter throwing 200+ innings a year. But to say he shouldn't be in the HOF is absolutely ridiculous

---

quote:

---

Don't believe me? Before you bring the tar to a boil and gather more feathers, let me again cite the work of Project Retrosheet founder Dave Smith. He thoroughly and tirelessly researched games from more than seven decades and found that the rate at which teams win games with late-inning leads basically has not changed. Teams leading by one run after eight innings have gone on to win 85.7 percent of the time. That number goes up to 93.7 percent when leading by two runs, and 97.5 percent when leading by three runs.


Mull that over, and then please tell me why Rivera is so amazing for having an 89.1 percent career save rate (which, by the way, is lower than Joe Nathan's). Because, basically, Rivera was not used except in games the Yankees were going to win 88 percent of the time anyway. Actually, the percentages were usually higher than that. According to Elias, of Rivera's 652 career saves, just under a third (210) were with a one-run lead when he took the mound while 216 were with a two-run lead, 180 with a three-run lead and 46 with a lead of at least four runs.

---

quote:

---

89.1 percent career save rate

---

quote:

---

Rivera was not used except in games the Yankees were going to win 88 percent of the time anyway.

---

quote:

---

Whoever wrote it was obviously trying to twist the stats to make Mo seem less valuable

---

quote:

---

Say 40% of his blown saves were still Yankee wins.

---

quote:

---

So now you're looking at a Yankee win rate of around 94% when Mo comes in with a save opportunity. Compare that to 88%.

An extra 6% win probability.

---

quote:

---

Wait, you're assigning 40% extra wins for Rivera but not for the percentages he's being compared against, is that what you're doing here?

YOu're comparing 94% to 88%...don't you have to bump up the 88% by a margin of your made up 40% number too to keep it fair?

---

quote:

---

Everyone knew what he was throwing yet people rarely made good contact

---

quote:

---

A closer? The best postseason pitcher ever?

---

quote:

---

I'm not sure what you're laughing at. His postseason numbers are by far the best ever. Only 6 pitchers have more postseason IP.

AP 3.81 ERA
Glavine 3.30
Smoltz 2.67
Clemens 3.75
Maddux 3.16
Ford 2.71
Mo .70

Only one other pitcher in history has 60+ postseason IP with an ERA under 1. Christy Mathewson 101.2 with a .97 ERA. Mo is 141 with a .70 ERA.

But hey, don't let stats get in the way of your bullshite

---

quote:

---

It has been proven a thousand ways possible, a closer in baseballs value is so overblown.

---