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BCS: If you had to pick either polls or computers...?
Posted on 8/15/10 at 2:07 pm
Posted on 8/15/10 at 2:07 pm
Which would you pick? If somehow we had to do away with one or the other as a way of determining who gets to play for the title, which would you pick to keep?
Me: I'd keep the computers. You never have to "impress" them, and they can't use opinions and rhetoric and bias. Only numbers.
FYI, in the BCS era, there have been 2 (or 3) times that the BCS title game didn't feature #1 and #2 according to the computers:
*2006: 1 Ohio State, t2 Florida, t2 Michigan (#2 Michigan excluded)
2008: 1 Oklahoma, 2 Texas, 3 Florida
2009: 1 Alabama, 2 Cincinnati, 3 Texas
My opinion is that the BCS has never "gotten it wrong." But, if 2006 Michigan, 2008 Texas, or 2009 Cincinnati had played for the title instead of 2006 Florida, 2008 Florida, and 2009 Texas, I would still have the opinion.
If Texas had gotten in over Florida in 2008, I wouldn't say Florida got screwed.
If Cincinnati had gotten in over Texas in 2009, I wouldn't say Texas got screwed.
Auburn got screwed in 1983. Royally. THAT'S why we need computers.
Me: I'd keep the computers. You never have to "impress" them, and they can't use opinions and rhetoric and bias. Only numbers.
FYI, in the BCS era, there have been 2 (or 3) times that the BCS title game didn't feature #1 and #2 according to the computers:
*2006: 1 Ohio State, t2 Florida, t2 Michigan (#2 Michigan excluded)
2008: 1 Oklahoma, 2 Texas, 3 Florida
2009: 1 Alabama, 2 Cincinnati, 3 Texas
My opinion is that the BCS has never "gotten it wrong." But, if 2006 Michigan, 2008 Texas, or 2009 Cincinnati had played for the title instead of 2006 Florida, 2008 Florida, and 2009 Texas, I would still have the opinion.
If Texas had gotten in over Florida in 2008, I wouldn't say Florida got screwed.
If Cincinnati had gotten in over Texas in 2009, I wouldn't say Texas got screwed.
Auburn got screwed in 1983. Royally. THAT'S why we need computers.
This post was edited on 8/15/10 at 2:12 pm
8
Posted on 8/15/10 at 2:16 pm to xiv
I'd keep the computers all day. At least the computers take into account all the teams. The coaches have no idea what's going on outside of their conference
Posted on 8/15/10 at 2:56 pm to xiv
Polls
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:04 pm to The Easter Bunny
quote:
I'd keep the computers all day. At least the computers take into account all the teams.
Agreed. I would like a little more transparency/tweakage in the formulas (formuli?) though.
quote:
The coaches have no idea what's going on outside of their conference
Are we talking strictly the coaches or also AP poll? I'd rather have the coaches poll than the media FWIW
This post was edited on 8/15/10 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:08 pm to xiv
The computers thought Oklahoma was better than USC in '03 AFTER they got they arse kicked in the Big 12 Championship game. Polls definitely.
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:09 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:
Polls
do you mean the coaches poll or polls in general?
if it's a poll composed of specially designated people who actually see the games, that's one thing. But to me, the coaches poll is a joke of epic proportions. First, if you believe what you read, the coaches themselves don't vote on it a great majority of the time...they have someone else do it for them. And even if they did vote, what good is their opinion, other than the teams they've personally played against. They don't have time to be watching other games. Second, it is inherently biased since how they vote has a direct effect on them, or their conference, or friends of theirs in coaching (or enemies). What did Schnellenberger rank LSU in 07? Like 16th or something? Coaches are perhaps the last people on earth who should have any say in determining the national champion.
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:10 pm to Obi-Wan Tiger
Even the media guys though (Forde, Corso, etc), how many of them watch more than 5 minutes of the top 25 (excluded highlight reels)? Much less more than 5 minutes of the entire 100+ D1A teams?
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:14 pm to TulaneUVA
quote:
Even the media guys though (Forde, Corso, etc), how many of them watch more than 5 minutes of the top 25 (excluded highlight reels)? Much less more than 5 minutes of the entire 100+ D1A teams?
absolutely agree...they're not much better than the coaches. Polls are fine if a group of people thoroughly dedicated to analyzing this could be available. But the problem is, assembling a group of individuals to do this over a three month+ period would very difficult.
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:17 pm to Obi-Wan Tiger
I am willing to leave my current job as an engineer and work exclusively for the BCS if they match my pay.
Job offers can be sent to tulaneuva@gmail.com
Job offers can be sent to tulaneuva@gmail.com
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:26 pm to TulaneUVA
computers are unbiased, therefore boise, tulane, and sun belt teams get fair shakes
for this reason you have to go with polls
for this reason you have to go with polls
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:29 pm to chalmetteowl
Computers are better because they judge a team solely on its performance. Polls judge a team based on its name and on its preseason expectations. As a result, with polls two different teams can end up with different rankings based on identical performances.
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:35 pm to Bestbank Tiger
Those who prefer the biased polls over the computers are un-American. That's right. I said it.
Posted on 8/15/10 at 3:39 pm to TulaneUVA
that's right
Posted on 8/15/10 at 4:32 pm to Obi-Wan Tiger
quote:
But to me, the coaches poll is a joke of epic proportions.
This. Besides their opponents, the coaches have no interest in other teams. The coaches poll is a farce. They should have never started that crap.
quote:
Coaches are perhaps the last people on earth who should have any say in determining the national champion.
+1
I am not against the AP. I know they don't watch all the games, but you really don't need to see every game. The thing about the AP is that the voters have jobs that require them to keep up with college football. Not every beat writer gets a vote, only a select few.
I am not a big fan of the computers. Seems like if there was a computer program that could pick the best two teams in the country, then we could go with that one program. The fact that we use more than one computer program means that the programs have built in biases.
Posted on 8/15/10 at 4:59 pm to wrlakers
Playoffs Brah!
Posted on 8/15/10 at 5:15 pm to jmschamber
I'd have to know the formula of the computer to agree to use it. The computers can be taken advantage of if it means more to play shite competition and go undefeated than play a tough schedule with one loss
Posted on 8/15/10 at 6:03 pm to xiv
I'd keep the computers with the caveat that their algorithms are made public.
Posted on 8/15/10 at 6:06 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:
computers are unbiased, therefore boise, tulane, and sun belt teams get fair shakes
for this reason you have to go with polls
So you don't like the computers because they are too fair.
Gotcha.
Posted on 8/15/10 at 6:28 pm to xiv
The "computers" are opinions, though. It's math formulas. There is not even one agreed-upon "best" math formula. One guy thinks his math formula is more accurate than another guy.
This post was edited on 8/15/10 at 6:30 pm
Posted on 8/15/10 at 6:41 pm to Gmorgan4982
Which is why you take several into account, and require that all of them make their algorithms transparent.
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