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re: Based on the first game, who thinks Dalvin Cook is better then L. Fournette?
Posted on 9/12/17 at 5:53 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 9/12/17 at 5:53 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
game flow
You argued that the game flow had Jacksonville running out the clock in the fourth, while Minnesota wasn't.
Wrong. I said Jacksonville was sitting on a lead, which they were for 2 quarters (This is also more proof that you didn't actually watch the game btw). They were up 19 at the half and Houston hasn't even threatened to score.
The only person who wanted to focus on the 4th quarter was you.
1
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:02 pm to slackster
quote:Yes, 15 of his 26 rushes were against 8 men in the box, while 9 of Cook's 22 rushes were against 8 men in the box.
The only thing we know is that nearly 60% of Fournette's attempts were into 8 man boxes. That's ridiculous.
I don't know what the impact on YPC 8 men has, but if Cook had 26 carries, he would have had 150 yards but only about 11 of those carries would have been against 8 men in the box.
Would 4 fewer 8 men carries for Fournette and 4 more for Cook result in a 50 yard difference?
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:12 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
but if Cook had 26 carries, he would have had 150 yards but only about 11 of those carries would have been against 8 men in the box.
I'm the one making up straw man arguments though.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:14 pm to RB10
quote:Yet. Fournette had more rushes as a percentage of plays before they "Sat" on the lead, and Bortles through almost as many passes as Fournette had rushes. An odd what to sit on the lead.
Wrong. I said Jacksonville was sitting on a lead, which they were for 2 quarters
Regardless, we can't just get rid of 6 of Fournette's rushes and 8 of Cook's because it was the fourth quarter when it conveniently supports your argument. Then when I highlight Ivory's stats, you went conveniently exclude his first quarter stats.
That's why I looked at the median and mean of the quarters, which made were closer but still favored Cook.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:17 pm to RB10
quote:That's not a strawman; that's providing a comparable measure of a rate, like per 100 possessions in basketball or per ounce at a grocery store.
I'm the one making up straw man arguments though.
Do you know what a strawman is?
This post was edited on 9/12/17 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:18 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Regardless, we can't just get rid of 6 of Fournette's rushes and 8 of Cook's because it was the fourth quarter when it conveniently supports your argument.
quote:
Then when I highlight Ivory's stats, you went conveniently exclude his first quarter stats.
I never said to do either of these things. However, I did use both quarter's numbers to show that running backs tend to fare better when they're quarterback is a passing threat for a multitude of reasons.
You've really not followed much of anything in this thread. Being willfully ignorant is an interesting tactic. I'll give you that much at least.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:21 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Do you know what a strawman is?
Extrapolating stats to try and make a point is the definition of a straw man. An educated guess is still conjecture, and conjecture is most certainly a straw man argument.
Sorry.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:25 pm to RB10
LeGarette Blount has 1 catch, and 1 receiving touchdown in 1 game. Extrapolated out, he should score 16 receiving touchdowns this year.
That holds as much weight, as far as facts go, as your Cook example. Hence, they're basically useless.
That holds as much weight, as far as facts go, as your Cook example. Hence, they're basically useless.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:26 pm to RB10
quote:No it's not:
Extrapolating stats to try and make a point is the definition of a straw man.
And have you ever gone to the grocery store and compared say a half gallon of milk that was a $1.00 to a gallon that was a $1.50 and determines that you the gallons is cheaper PER UNIT OF MEASURE?
That's all I'm doing here, and it's commonly done in all sports, like Earned Run Average.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:27 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
No it's not:
See above. It most certainly is.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:31 pm to RB10
quote:You can show why extrapolation of small samples can be problematic (e.g., Jeremy Lin's blazing start), but that is not a strawman at all.
See above. It most certainly is.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:33 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
You can show why extrapolation of small samples can be problematic
You mean like extrapolating 22 carries out as though it guarantees the current YPC? Give Cook 200 carries and you can start making a reasonable assumption. Doing so at 22.....is......a......straw man.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:36 pm to RB10
quote:I already said a one game sample is too small to draw conclusions, but cmparing 26 carries to 21 carries using YPC is less problematic than your example since those are close to the minimum number of observations necessary to make a comparison and YPC had less variation than other metrics (like TD'S).
LeGarette Blount has 1 catch, and 1 receiving touchdown in 1 game. Extrapolated out, he should score 16 receiving touchdowns this year.
That holds as much weight, as far as facts go, as your Cook example. Hence, they're basically useless.
Either way, what you're doing is taking this limited data and applying some subjective and ambiguous "game flow" to it, so that makes the comparison even more flawed.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:38 pm to RB10
quote:Yes. That's exactly what I'm doing.
You mean like extrapolating 22 carries out as though it guarantees the current YPC?
quote:I've said multiple times that one game is not enough to draw any conclusions, but the topic of this thread is:
Give Cook 200 carries and you can start making a reasonable assumption.
quote:
Based on the first game
quote:No it's not. Again. You can criticize it, but it's not a strawman.
Doing so at 22.....is......a......straw man.
This post was edited on 9/12/17 at 6:40 pm
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:43 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
YPC is less problematic than your example since those are close to the minimum number of observations necessary to make a comparison and YPC had less variation than other metrics (like TD'S). .
Let's ignore TDs because they're too variable, but only use the metric that saw Cook's number jump from 4.45 to 5.77 on his last carry of the game.
Solid.
quote:
Either way, what you're doing is taking this limited data and applying some subjective and ambiguous "game flow" to it, so that makes the comparison even more flawed.
What I'm doing is the same thing they do to select MVPs, All-Pros, etc. There's a reason no one ever simply looks at just stats and says "Well, he's better".
Particularly not in the NFL where one person's effectiveness can be minimal no matter how good they are.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:50 pm to RB10
quote:Which is why I tried to use the mean and median of the 4 Qs to appease your game flow argument, while trying to find a measure of Central tendency without disregarding an indivdual quarter. You ignored that too. We couldn't even find the median yardage of all 26 and 22 carries, if we really want to determine YPC without the impact of the outliers given the small sample.
Let's ignore TDs because they're too variable, but only use the metric that saw Cook's number jump from 4.45 to 5.77 on his last carry of the game.
quote:What?
What I'm doing is the same thing they do to select MVPs, All-Pros, etc.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 6:53 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
What?
Which part did you not understand? No one looks at just stats to determine a player's performance, and they particularly don't obsess over a single measure like you have.
No one is going to look at Kirk Cousins' numbers last year and come to the conclusion that he was better than Aaron Rodgers because he had more yards and a higher YPA.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 7:33 pm to RB10
quote:Yeah. We we are judging a one game sample. The objective and quantifiable data are problematic enough, let alone the subjective and ambiguous information.
Which part did you not understand? No one looks at just stats to determine a player's performance, and they particularly don't obsess over a single measure like you have.
And look. I'm not a fan of any of the teams or the players involved. I think both had strong first games, and both have the potential to he stars. I just think that based on the premise of the OP, Cook had a better first game, but the difference wasn't that great nor is it anything to draw conclusions.
quote:No. Of course not. But QB's also have other stats (rating, QBR, etc.) that are more comprehensive but include YPA in it.
No one is going to look at Kirk Cousins' numbers last year and come to the conclusion that he was better than Aaron Rodgers because he had more yards and a higher YPA.
Of course, when there is more data then we can look at other factors for any position, but for RBs that average 20+ carries per game, YPC is a pretty good measure of performance at the end of the day.
Posted on 9/12/17 at 8:04 pm to theunknownknight
I'll be honest. No. I don't. He was playing the Saints.
Posted on 9/13/17 at 3:45 am to Fus0623
Cook has been better from day 1
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