re: ATL Thread 10/11 | NLDS Game 3 vs PHI | We’re F#cked Edition

Please stay on the corners Elder

Bryce goes at least 5 tonight.

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What? 4 days rest is normal with a 5-man rotation. He’s pitched on 4 days rest all season.

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Did you think I pulled those numbers out of my arse? It’s literally right there for anyone to see.

4 days rest: 8 starts, 5.56 ERA
5 days rest: 19 starts, 3.38 ERA
6 days rest: 5 starts, 3.19 ERA

It’s also worth mentioning he’s only pitched on 4 days rest once in the last 2 months, and he gave up 4 ER over 5 IP in that start.

So no, he has not been “doing it all season”.

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DoctorBobble-

Austin Riley has hit 5 HRs (10 XBH)
Ronald Acuña has hit 4 HRs (9 XBH)
Marcell Ozuna has hit 4 HRs (5 XBH)
Travis d'Arnaud has hit 2 HRs (5 XBH)
Michael Harris II has hit 2 HRs (3 XBH)
Matt Olson has hit 1 HR (3 XBH)
Ozzie Albies has hit 4 XBH

...off Aaron Nola

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Yeah, it seems we hit Nola pretty good. And he’s having one of the worst seasons of his career. But he’s Nola, and is certainly capable of being great on any given day and shoving for 6 or 7.

But I will continue to preach my velocity plays in the postseason mantra. Not that Nola throws “slow” or anything, but the Phillies have a seemingly endless supply of bullpen arms that they run out there who all throw 98. I actually like our chances against Nola more than their pen guys. And I would have thought that even without all those gaudy numbers you posted. If he’s not on, or even if he is, all it takes is for him
to miss over the plate a couple times and we can make him pay.

The flip side to that is Elder. Nola still sits 94/95 (is that right?) while Elder sits 91/92. And he has 2 potentials for mistakes to get punished. He runs a 92 mph 4-seemer over the middle of the plate, and it’s probably not coming back. Or if he throws a sinker down the middle that doesn’t sink and stays up, that has even less of a chance of staying in the yard. He just can’t walk anybody. You just can’t throw 91-92 and walk people. His mistakes have to be solo shots and not 2 or 3-runners.

But maybe he’s got the sinker going and is painting corners with his fastball. Maybe he steps up and has one of those legendary playoff performances that make October baseball so much fun. But regardless, like has already been mentioned, he’s got to have a super short leash either way. If he could give us 4 or 5 only giving up 2 runs to hand it to AJSS, I think I’d take it. If he only gives us 3 giving up 1, I think I’d take that, too.

We talked a lot about the change in pressure after the comeback win Monday. Imagine how much “looser” Elder and AJSS should feel today knowing it’s not an elimination game. “Loose” being relative, of course. It’s still the playoffs, it’s still the Phillies’ lineup, and it’s still gonna be in front of a very hostile crowd. But sometimes guys step
up and do something special. Let’s hope 1–or both—of those guys do tonight.

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Majority of time you get an off day within the 4 days your not pitching which bumps up the days to 5.

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There is not an off day every 5 days in the regular season.

ETA—just went back and looked at our schedule:

April—2 off days
May—3 off days
June—3 off days
July—8 (outlier due to 4 off days for every team due to All-Star Break, so really only 4 while teams were playing)
August—3 off days
September—3 off days

So no month besides July had more than 3. April had 2. (Let’s discount the 4 days of the All-Star break so as not to skew the numbers). And since the regular season ended October 1st, let’s count September as having 31 days. And the season started on April 1st, so that makes it clean.

April—2 out of 30 days
May—3 out of 31 days
June—3 out of 30 days
July—4 out of 31 days
August—3 out of 31 days
September/10/1–3 out of 31 days

18 off days out of 184. That’s an off day every 10.22 days, so right at 1 off day per 2 times through the rotation.

These are “scheduled” off days. We got rained out 4 times and played 4 double headers. So with the rainouts, that still averages out to an off day only every 8.36 days.

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4 days rest: 8 starts, 5.56 ERA
5 days rest: 19 starts, 3.38 ERA
6 days rest: 5 starts, 3.19 ERA

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Won't matter we are scoring 10 tonight and 12 tomorrow.

Thicc brought the swag back bigly.

These Philly losers wearing deion shirts talking bout "it's personal now"

What a poverty baseball club. Who needs fake juice to get up for a home playoff game.

Braves in 4

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That said, after what we saw from Max Monday, I don’t feel great about Game 5 with him going against Wheeler. Or him going at all right now

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Eh, Max will be fine. He was rusty on Monday.

I expect him to fricking shove in Game 5 if it comes to that

Fox sports-

The Atlanta Braves are the new favorites to win the World Series at +270 after a miraculous catch and throw by Michael Harris II to third baseman Austin Riley for a game-winning double play in Game 2 against the Philadelphia Phillies in their NLDS series.