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Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:28 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
It's not remotely close. Going for it should be a no brainer for an NFL team with the analytical staff up in the booth.
If you don't take the timeout immediately, and they didn't. It is close. Very close. The 4th and 5 conversion rate is right at 50%. They didn't have enough time to continue to move the ball forward because they didn't take the timeout early enough.
As I've said, if you take the timeout when you are supposed to then you go for it. They didn't, so I don't have a problem with the kick because the outcomes are very close to the same.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:30 am to Mingo Was His NameO
even with the 20 seconds and 2 timeouts that is an eternity to run 3 plays and still get a FG off.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:30 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
As I've said, if you take the timeout when you are supposed to then you go for it. They didn't, so I don't have a problem with the kick because the outcomes are very close to the same.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:31 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
If you don't take the timeout immediately, and they didn't. It is close. Very close. The 4th and 5 conversion rate is right at 50%. They didn't have enough time to continue to move the ball forward because they didn't take the timeout early enough.
Wrong.
Even if they only run one more play for 5 yards and then kick (which would make no sense since there would be at LEAST 10-11 seconds left after the conversion) the Broncos are twice as likely to win the game going for it versus attempting a 64 yarder.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:34 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Even if they only run one more play for 5 yards and then kick (which would make no sense since there would be at LEAST 10-11 seconds left after the conversion) the Broncos are twice as likely to win the game going for it versus attempting a 64 yarder.
Using the kicking stats I posted its almost exactly the same. Roughly 20%.
You may be the only poster in this thread that understands the math though.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:36 am to Mingo Was His NameO
You keep talking about math, but you need to understand football first. You saying they can only run one play with 20 seconds and multiple timeouts is stupid as shite 
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:36 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Using the kicking stats I posted its almost exactly the same. Roughly 20%.
So McManus had a 20% chance of making a kick from a distance that he had never made in his career before? Let's see your math.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:38 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Using the kicking stats I posted its almost exactly the same. Roughly 20%.
It's not roughly 20%
McManus was 14% on 60+ going into this game.
Going for it, getting the conversion and then kicking a game winner is at about 27%.
So nearly twice as likely.
And again, that's if we assume denver continues to be retatded and doesn't try to get another 2-4 yards when they would have had about 11 seconds and a timeout after the conversion.
If we assume they aren't retarded, their chances of winning if they go for it is around 30%. MORE than twice as likely as the 64 yarder.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:38 am to Mingo Was His NameO
Can't believe anyone besides Hackett's family members would be dumb enough to still be defending this hours later.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:39 am to JohnnyKilroy
It'
quote:But math math math math
s not roughly 20%
McManus was 14% on 60+ going into this game.
Going for it, getting the conversion and then kicking a game winner is at about 27%.
So nearly twice as likely.
And again, that's if we assume denver continues to be retatded and doesn't try to get another 2-4 yards when they would have had about 11 seconds and a timeout after the conversion.
If we assume they aren't retarded, their chances of winning if they go for it is around 30%. MORE than twice as likely as the 64 yarder.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:40 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
McManus was 14% on 60+ going into this game.
Im not using specific player stats. If you are going to do that, you need to do it for everyone to make it equitable.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:40 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
McManus was 14% on 60+ going into this game.
And the one make was 61 yards, probably in Denver, so 14% is very generous.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:41 am to lsupride87
quote:
You keep talking about math, but you need to understand football first.
This wreaks of 60 year old football guy that makes negative EPA decisions routinely.
Bizzare for an autist
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:42 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:You are the one saying you only have time for one play with multiple timeouts and 20 seconds. Your initial premise in your equation is batshit stupid
This wreaks of 60 year old football guy that makes negative EPA decisions routinely. Bizzare for an autist
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:55 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Im not using specific player stats. If you are going to do that, you need to do it for everyone to make it equitable.
even using your 20% figure it's 35-50% more likely to win by going for it than kicking.
There's really no way to slice it to justify kicking there. The analytics say go for it.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:56 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
He should've taken the timeout immediately
But you have no idea what the numbers say to do there
without checking any odds, i would say you have an infinitely greater chance of gaining a few yards on 4th down than making a 64 yard field goal
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 8:58 am
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:01 am to Damone
quote:
He clearly hasn't built up a rapport with Wilson
He’s one of the best qbs in the league lol. He’s seen what he’s capable of.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:02 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Whats the delta between a 59 and 64 yard field goal? Weigh that against first having to get the first down and then making the field goal.
They had 3 timeouts with over 30 seconds left, if they made the first down they had plenty of time to gain another 10-15 yards.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:02 am to TackySweater
quote:
Aaron Schatz, a pioneer in NFL advanced stats and the creator of Football Outsiders, described Hackett electing to kick a field goal as “a flabbergasting decision.” Schatz’s win-probability model suggests that with 20 seconds to go the Broncos had a 36.1% chance of victory by going for it on 4th-and-5 compared to only 7.4% by attempting the field goal.
“If the field goal had been from 58 or 59 yards, our model has it as more of a coin flip decision,” Schatz told Yahoo Sports. “But that difference of 6 or 7 yards is a big difference. They get really hard after 60. There's a reason why there have only been two field goals ever from 64 yards or longer.”
quote:
Ben Baldwin, an economist and football data scientist, offers a slightly rosier picture of Hackett's situational decision making. Because he guesses that McManus had a 20 percent chance of making a 64-yard field goal, his model gives Denver a 34% win probability going for it with 20 seconds left compared to 18% by attempting to kick.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 9:04 am
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