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re: 2017 NHL Playoff Thread: PENGUINS WIN THE CUP, Crosby robs Malkin of the Conn Smythe

Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:23 am to
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:23 am to
quote:

Evgeni Malkin is the first player in 8 years to score a goal and get a fighting major in a SCF game.

The last player to do it? Malkin.


That is spectacular.

The Penguins' voodoo is flat out amazing. Someone tweeted out a picture of the hole in Rinne's pads on the first goal, and it was virtually non-existent... and then the puck just pops through. That's the kind of puck luck the Pens are getting the postseason. The hockey gods have smiled on them. Everything is going in, they are like the Pleasantville High basketball team.

Opposing goalies this postseason have a save percentage of 893 against the Penguins. 893. And they haven't exactly faced chumps. Bobrovsky, Holtby, and Rinne are all Vezina contenders, and they all turned into a pumpkin against the Penguins (the one goalie who didn't was Anderson, and that's just weird). Only two qualifying goalies had a save percentage of 893 or lower in the regular season. TWO. The Penguins have turned elite goalies into Antii Niemi.

The Penguins are one of the most stats-savvy organizations in the league. They bought out the war-on-ice guys. Most stats analysis is based upon possession, and the Penguins, in the playoffs, are 15th in score adjusted CF% and 14th in score adjusted Shots%. They are 13th in Scoring Chance % (and 7th in High Danger Chance %).

So, either the Penguins are totally bucking the odds in complete rejection of their organizational strategy, or they have cracked the code with some proprietary data. I think it's probably somewhere in the middle. I do think they have gotten a ton of good fortune, but that doesn't explain the entire run, or how every goalie they face forgets how to play to hockey. I think they have spotted something in gameplay and tactics that no one else has caught yet, and they are exploiting that advantage.

Because they have a miserable defensive corps and virtually no scoring depth, yet they are two games away from winning the Cup. I don't want to completely rule out the possibility of just random chance being kind to them, but I think the more likely scenario is that Sullivan might just be the best hockey coach since Scotty Bowman. He's taken an organization that was stuck in neutral and had was split by internal divisions (not to mention some gross incompetence by their medical staff, all since fired) and is about to win 2 Cups in 1.5 years.

Either the Penguins are the luckiest team in the history of hockey or Sullivan is a goddamned genius.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
70197 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:29 am to
quote:

I do think they have gotten a ton of good fortune, but that doesn't explain the entire run, or how every goalie they face forgets how to play to hockey. I think they have spotted something in gameplay and tactics that no one else has caught yet, and they are exploiting that advantage.


I was going to make the point last night that the Pens are some lucky MFers the way Bob, Holtby, and Rinne are gagging, but I know the trolls last night would have just responded the Pens are forcing them to play poorly. Whatever. As you said the other day, the Preds haven't suffered enough in their history for me to really care. At least hunky Mike Fisher's life won't be so perfect. Only people I feel bad for are Rinne and Pernell.
This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 9:32 am
Posted by SquirrelyBama
Member since Nov 2011
6389 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:30 am to
When the Preds lost game #1 the way they did, we figured they were done. Looks to be playing out that way unless the Predators go into beast mode at home and tie the series up 2-2. Game 3 is a must win for Predators without question!!!

The rest of my summer is building Handicap ramps, Deck, retaining walls, and other things at up my Mom's place to make retirement easier for her. So not staying up late watching Hockey will most likely serve me well, but... if the Predators do get back into this series, I wouldn't mind a couple more late night watching Hockey...lol

Go Predators !!!!!!
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:45 am to
Yeah, and Holtby didn't play all that poorly, he just didn't play great. He never stole a game, which is what you need a Vezina winning goalie to do. He was just average for most of the series, and bad for 1 or 2 games. Bob and Rinne have been dumpster fires. Which is really shocking for Rinne, considering he had the Smythe all but locked up until this series started.
Posted by GeauxTigers2020
Member since Sep 2013
28667 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:51 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/10/26 at 9:58 pm
Posted by DisplacedBuckeye
Member since Dec 2013
76732 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 10:11 am to
Boom, Pens.

I think they just scored on Rinne again...
Posted by LSUCanFAN
In the past
Member since Jan 2009
28101 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 10:11 am to
quote:

Conn Smythe will go to Malkin or Guentzel or Crosby now.
FIFY
Posted by LSUCanFAN
In the past
Member since Jan 2009
28101 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 10:15 am to
You know I'm no believer in your Cersi stats-- has it occurred to anyone that maybe experience winning Stanley Cups counts for something? I watched the Preds get rattled in the first and second game while the Pens just absorb pressure and counter attack like MFers
Posted by cas4t
Member since Jan 2010
72204 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 1:51 pm to
I don't see how Guentzel doesn't win it this year. He has been unreal.
Posted by jefforize
Member since Feb 2008
46363 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 2:09 pm to
yea.. he has FIVE (!) game winning goals this SCP

the pens have won 14 games

Guentzel has over a THIRD of their GW goals so far.
Posted by cas4t
Member since Jan 2010
72204 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

yea.. he has FIVE (!) game winning goals this SCP

the pens have won 14 games

Guentzel has over a THIRD of their GW goals so far.


god, I hate that fricker
Posted by GeauxTigers2020
Member since Sep 2013
28667 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 3:07 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/10/26 at 9:58 pm
Posted by cas4t
Member since Jan 2010
72204 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 3:09 pm to
love that hot take
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 3:41 pm to
They gave it to Crosby last year when he didn't deserve it, so you can't rule that out this year.
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 5:20 pm to
Sure, experience matters. But the Penguins were adrift from 2010-15. Sullivan shows up and the team goes to two straight Finals, already winning one. Same core, and this year he's doing with no defense whatsoever (it's long been a belief that the one thing all recent Cup champions had in common was an elite minutes-eating blueliner). I don't think enough can be said about what a job he's doing.

In the previous six seasons, the Penguins had won 4 playoff series. He's now on the verge of winning 4 in back-to-back seasons, his first two as a coach.

And again, the Penguins are among the most stat-savvy organizations in the NHL. They have invested more in advanced stats than just about any team. But that also means they are working on proprietary stuff, and I think we're into the second era of analytics.

The first was just the basics: possession matters. And some teams resisted, like you. And they are now pretty much all mired among the dregs of the league. Every team save maybe the Avalanche and Islanders have bought in now. We used to see gaps in team Corsi that was pretty wide. But now, as teams have learned its value, the gap is MUCH smaller. Almost every team is with 55-45% (22 teams were between 48-52% score adjusted CF%). We don't get 60% outliers like the Kings anymore.

What this means is now little things matter more. You used to be able to beat 3/4 of the league just be saying: hey, let's keep the puck out of our own end. Now, everyone's doing that. So, now I think the Penguins have moved on to the next stage: How to Beat Possession. The league has zigged, so Sullivan is the first to zag.
This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 5:26 pm
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

Guentzel has over a THIRD of their GW goals so far.


He's also a rookie. So maybe experience doesn't mean anything. He's gone full John Druce.
Posted by SquirrelyBama
Member since Nov 2011
6389 posts
Posted on 6/1/17 at 8:48 pm to
quote:

Guentzel has over a THIRD of their GW goals so far.


That's unbelievable, he's been on fire these playoffs
Posted by ironsides
Nashville, TN
Member since May 2006
8154 posts
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:23 am to
Let's be honest...Rinne's hot streak is over. Saros was meh..... I can hope for a win at Bridgestone but am not as optimistic as I was before the last game.

In the third period of game 1 the Pens looked tired, not so much on Wednesday. I'm not sure the fans at Bridgestone can bring the heat on Saturday - won't be the normal crowd it will be the crowd that can afford $1k nosebleed seats....
Posted by am4titansandlsu
The South
Member since May 2006
10642 posts
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:56 am to
quote:

I'm not sure the fans at Bridgestone can bring the heat on Saturday - won't be the normal crowd it will be the crowd that can afford $1k nosebleed seats..


Most will be season ticket holders, but I'll be doing my part.

Posted by LSUCanFAN
In the past
Member since Jan 2009
28101 posts
Posted on 6/2/17 at 10:17 am to
Does anyone see this series tied up going back to Pitt? Down 3-0 I think it's over. 2-1 I'm not so sure.
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